Australian Recession

[Pnik]

Hi everyone,
I am new in this group. I hope everybody is enjoying their share trading today.
I have been swing trading during the last 10 years on and off. During the last year swing trading was my full time job.
I have been reading books and tried to improve my knowledge. I feel that I am overwhelmed with lots of information and kind of confused.
At this point of time because of the news about Australian recession I am thinking to sell all my stocks and quit the sharemarket for a while. Is there anybody else in this group who is feeling the same

 

[Knobby22]

Hi everyone,
I am new in this group. I hope everybody is enjoying their share trading today.
I have been swing trading during the last 10 years on and off. During the last year swing trading was my full time job.
I have been reading books and tried to improve my knowledge. I feel that I am overwhelmed with lots of information and kind of confused.
At this point of time because of the news about Australian recession I am thinking to sell all my stocks and quit the sharemarket for a while. Is there anybody else in this group who is feeling the same

Yea, but will it happen?
Australian debt is falling, tax cuts are coming. Maybe now is the time to buy?

 

[Pnik]

Yea, but will it happen?
Australian debt is falling, tax cuts are coming. Maybe now is the time to buy?

Australia has already slipped into a ‘per capita recession.’ The June quarter national accounts showed real GDP per capita falling by 0.3 per cent for a second consecutive quarter as output failed to keep pace with rapid population growth.​

This is why RBA paused interest rate hike.

 

[Smurf1976]

An old quote comes to mind "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

Rationally I do think the stock market as a whole is overvalued and ought come down at least somewhat. Trouble is, that's no guarantee of it actually happening and therein lies the difficulty.

I do note however that we're in the seasonally weak period. So if it's going to come down, there's a reasonable chance (but not a guarantee) that it happens in the near future.

PS - Welcome to ASF!

 

[MovingAverage]

Hi everyone,
I am new in this group. I hope everybody is enjoying their share trading today.
I have been swing trading during the last 10 years on and off. During the last year swing trading was my full time job.
I have been reading books and tried to improve my knowledge. I feel that I am overwhelmed with lots of information and kind of confused.
At this point of time because of the news about Australian recession I am thinking to sell all my stocks and quit the sharemarket for a while. Is there anybody else in this group who is feeling the same

G'day Pnik...I too am a swing trader. To be honest, given the very short time frames associated with swing trading the broader economic headwinds are of little concern to me. Yes, I'd be worried if my hold times were months, but as a swing trader you're only holding for a day or two at most.

 

[divs4ever]

Hi everyone,
I am new in this group. I hope everybody is enjoying their share trading today.
I have been swing trading during the last 10 years on and off. During the last year swing trading was my full time job.
I have been reading books and tried to improve my knowledge. I feel that I am overwhelmed with lots of information and kind of confused.
At this point of time because of the news about Australian recession I am thinking to sell all my stocks and quit the sharemarket for a while. Is there anybody else in this group who is feeling the same

welcome to ASF

sell ALL ?

surely with ten years in the market you have picked up the odd gem ( say dirt cheap BPT and BSL )

if you do exit the market completely where do you deploy the cash ( ( feel free to keep that answer private ) but i face that question regularly as my 'bottom-drawer stocks get taken-over in all cash deals

the other issue is IF there is an official recession/depression will you find better places to ark the cash , because SOME inflation ( indexed CPI increases ) is backed into the cake .

BTW nice to see you can make a living on swing-trading , i couldn't get close to doing that ( but sometimes unexpected movements make me look like an occasional trader

all that 'confusion' is by design ( by some ) to create distraction and fear among the weaker hands

cheers

 

[divs4ever]

Yea, but will it happen?
Australian debt is falling, tax cuts are coming. Maybe now is the time to buy?

am only buying because i have reduced faith in the banks ( except MQG which is a piece of work in their own right )

so far it is either stocks or livestock for me currently

PS i remember well the 'great building society collapse ' several decades back where my cash was locked up for years and took a 'haircut to boot

i expect the taxes to be shuffled about to make it SEEM like cuts , but more likely they will increase to cover extra government expenditure

 

[Pnik]

welcome to ASF

sell ALL ?

surely with ten years in the market you have picked up the odd gem ( say dirt cheap BPT and BSL )

if you do exit the market completely where do you deploy the cash ( ( feel free to keep that answer private ) but i face that question regularly as my 'bottom-drawer stocks get taken-over in all cash deals

the other issue is IF there is an official recession/depression will you find better places to ark the cash , because SOME inflation ( indexed CPI increases ) is backed into the cake .

BTW nice to see you can make a living on swing-trading , i couldn't get close to doing that ( but sometimes unexpected movements make me look like an occasional trader

all that 'confusion' is by design ( by some ) to create distraction and fear among the weaker hands

cheers

Thank you for your reply.
You are right after doing swing trading I should know better about the tricks in the market and as a trader sometimes having patience is important.
Investment in the real estate can be another option but with that I should get mortgage and I am personally sick of paying debts back with lots of interests.
By the way swing traders with a lot of capitals may be able to survive doing swing trading and pay for their daily expenses but I understand that it is not easy doing this with low amount of cash in hand. There should be other incomes available to live.

 

[Pnik]

G'day Pnik...I too am a swing trader. To be honest, given the very short time frames associated with swing trading the broader economic headwinds are of little concern to me. Yes, I'd be worried if my hold times were months, but as a swing trader you're only holding for a day or two at most.

Hi MovingAverage,
Thanks for your reply. I might be wrong but I thought swing traders could hold their stocks for up to weeks and months. Day traders should close their positions at the end of the day.
I remember keeping stocks like Santos for even 6 months as I did not want to loose money.
That is why I am worried about the recession

 

[Pnik]

An old quote comes to mind "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

Rationally I do think the stock market as a whole is overvalued and ought come down at least somewhat. Trouble is, that's no guarantee of it actually happening and therein lies the difficulty.

I do note however that we're in the seasonally weak period. So if it's going to come down, there's a reasonable chance (but not a guarantee) that it happens in the near future.

PS - Welcome to ASF!

Good afternoon Smurf1976
I agree that the market is overvalued that is why it might be a good idea to slow down trading to have some cash to buy low priced stocks

 

[mullokintyre]

Australian consumers must soon be running out of available cash.
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

Still seeing plenty of people lining up for fast food and at the pub on Saturday happy hour and it isn't an up market pub.
Maybe the graph is based on Sydney/Melbourne? Everything else is.

 

[StockyGuy]

Still seeing plenty of people lining up for fast food and at the pub on Saturday happy hour and it isn't an up market pub.
Maybe the graph is based on Sydney/Melbourne? Everything else is.

Isn't there only like 20,000 people in WA? And half o' you are on this site

 

[sptrawler]

Isn't there only like 20,000 people in WA? And half o' you are on this site

Only if they aren't on site, working FIFO, supplying your lunch.

 

[farmerge]

Australian consumers must soon be running out of available cash.
Mick

@mullokintyre Not to sure about that Mick.
Just paid the roofer for repairing the machinery shed, plumber for unblocking a sewer line and sparky to put a new thermostat in the solar hot water system all in folding.
Half price for 3 well done jobs.

 

[mullokintyre]

@mullokintyre Not to sure about that Mick.
Just paid the roofer for repairing the machinery shed, plumber for unblocking a sewer line and sparky to put a new thermostat in the solar hot water system all in folding.
Half price for 3 well done jobs.

the problem with anecdotal evidence is that it is a tiny proportion of the whole.
Whilst things may be rosy in that micro economic world, in the macro world where the rest of the plebs live, it will be an entirely different world.
I do some volunteer work for a local charity that provides assistance to those less well off.
At the meeting last night, the consensus was that this year, things have been busier.
This was borne out by the data provided by the manager that there has been a 400 fold increase in requests for assistance.
I have no doubt that many of us self funded retirees and anyone owning their own house outright are living life pretty well ( having just come back from a 10 week driving tour of the USA).
There are others lower down the food chain who were already struggling post covid, but now are in bigger trouble.
Take a glance at that chart above.
During and immediately post covid, thanks to the largesse of all western governments, the savings rates skyrocketed.
Not only have those savings been depleted, but they are being replaced by borrowings.
And those borrowings are costing a significantly more interest rate margin they did during covid.
This is not sustainable.
Mick

 

[UMike]

@mullokintyre Not to sure about that Mick.
Just paid the roofer for repairing the machinery shed, plumber for unblocking a sewer line and sparky to put a new thermostat in the solar hot water system all in folding.
Half price for 3 well done jobs.

Well I can't get trades people and if I do they do a rushed **** job cause they don't care and are on to the next one ASAP.

There is definitely a divide between the haves and have nots. I am surprised I haven't seen the struggle side yet.

 

[mullokintyre]

There is definitely a divide between the haves and have nots. I am surprised I haven't seen the struggle side yet.

You obviously move in the right circles!.
Mick

 

[farmerge]

Well I can't get trades people and if I do they do a rushed **** job cause they don't care and are on to the next one ASAP.

There is definitely a divide between the haves and have nots. I am surprised I haven't seen the struggle side yet.

@UMike The tradies I use are employed the builder who lives down the road from us. Quality plus from all three.

 

[sptrawler]

the problem with anecdotal evidence is that it is a tiny proportion of the whole.
Whilst things may be rosy in that micro economic world, in the macro world where the rest of the plebs live, it will be an entirely different world.
I do some volunteer work for a local charity that provides assistance to those less well off.
At the meeting last night, the consensus was that this year, things have been busier.
This was borne out by the data provided by the manager that there has been a 400 fold increase in requests for assistance.
I have no doubt that many of us self funded retirees and anyone owning their own house outright are living life pretty well ( having just come back from a 10 week driving tour of the USA).
There are others lower down the food chain who were already struggling post covid, but now are in bigger trouble.
Take a glance at that chart above.
During and immediately post covid, thanks to the largesse of all western governments, the savings rates skyrocketed.
Not only have those savings been depleted, but they are being replaced by borrowings.
And those borrowings are costing a significantly more interest rate margin they did during covid.
This is not sustainable.
Mick

A bit more anecdotal evidence for the manila folder, my youngest daughter works in the school canteen at what would be classed as an upper middle class area.
On Monday when she visited, she mentioned they are cutting back hours, as the demand for school lunches has fallen off.