EU - the Forgotten Market

[mullokintyre]

I thought it about time we had a thread devoted to The EU, despite its myriad of problems, is still a major player in world economics.

 

[mullokintyre]

One of the big boys from the EU, is struggling with inflationary pressures on its cits.
Cost of living pressures are rumbling along just under the surface, but if it erupts into something larger, all hell will break loose.
We have seen what happened with farmer revolts, the yellow shirt protests etc, things can get very ugly very quickly.

From Zero Hedge

According to the CEO of the largest French supermarket chain, Carrefour, high prices have forced consumers to make "massive cuts" to spending on essential goods, and urged the government to delay a law putting a cap on promotions retailers can offer.

Speaking on Tuesday, Carrefour Chairman and Chief Executive Alexandre Bompard warned "we are seeing a non-spending tsunami in France," adding that "when essential staples are no longer accessible, when people go without essential goods, one must act."

The comments, which were cited by Reuters, which sent Carrefour shares down more than 4%, were the latest salvo in a blame game between the French government and retailers on who is responsible for the increase in the cost of living.

As Europe's inflation shock eases - however briefly - France is seeing less of a drop in prices than many countries due to a surge in food inflation since March after annual price negotiations between retailers and producers.

The French government is eager to get food inflation - more than twice the overall French inflation rate of 5.1% in July - on a downward path, fearing that such high levels will undermine fragile consumer confidence. And while household confidence remained stable for the third month in a row in August - one can only imagine the "seasonal adjustment" gymnastics to gaslight the population that everyone is happy - it was well below its long-term average, according to a monthly survey from the INSEE statistics agency.

Bompard, who was among French retail executives due to meet Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire on Wednesday to discuss how to lower prices, said he would ask for a one-year moratorium on the application of the law, which is currently scheduled to take effect next March. The so-called Descrozaille law, which was passed in March this year, extends a limit of 34% on promotions that retailers can apply to food items to beauty, hygiene and care products.

Bompard, who has slashed prices to win back shoppers in the face of stiff competition, said that while today Carrefour is free to sell washing powder at a 60% discount, it would no longer be able to do so when the law takes effect.

The law's stated aim was to protect small producers in price negotiations with retailers; however, giant retailers like Carrefour say it limits their bargaining power with large suppliers, and Bompard on Tuesday said the new rules benefit only global multinationals like Procter & Gamble, Henkel and Unilever. Almost as if this was yet another government ploy to benefit corporations at the expense of ordinary people.

"They see their margins increase while the French are in a situation of deprivation," Bompard told Franceinfo. P&G, Unilever and Henkel did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Le Maire in March secured pledges from 75 food producers to cut prices on hundreds of products, but a junior minister last month said that only about 40 had made good on their promise. On Tuesday, Le Maire vowed to step up pressure on retailers and producers to accelerate price cuts.

"We are on the right track," he said. "Prices are now falling because we have intervened, because we put pressure on retailers and producers and because we will continue to do so."

Mick

 

[Dona Ferentes]

dropped this in elsewhere ... from Visual Capitalist.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

and here's an interesting development with the 3 Seas Initiative ... now we have Brics, and Quads, and Aukus, and G20 and Arab League, Belt and Road, etc
.

 

[divs4ever]

I thought it about time we had a thread devoted to The EU, despite its myriad of problems, is still a major player in world economics.

is currently struggling with the truth

also it has too many levels of bureaucracy

i biased some investment towards the UK after Brexit while i made a mid-term profit that was clearly a wrong move , but i am forgetting about the EU it is in a self-mutilating trend

 

[mullokintyre]

Now on the other side of the coin, Vehicle sales have increased for the 12th consecutive month.
from Reuters

LONDON, Aug 30 (Reuters) - European new car registrations jumped 15.2% in July, the 12th consecutive month of growth as the auto industry recovers from pandemic-related supply chain issues, data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) showed on Wednesday.

Electric vehicle sales jumped 60.6%, continuing a rise buoyed by subsidies in a number of European Union countries. Full EVs accounted for 13.6% of all new car sales, up from under 10% in July 2022.


Plug-in hybrids, which have both a combustion engine and a large battery, accounted for 7.9% of sales, while one in four vehicles sold in the EU was a full hybrid.

Between them, petrol and diesel engine models made up just under 50% of sales. Diesel vehicles, which alone comprised more than 50% of new car sales as recently as 2015, accounted for just over 14% of sales in July.

Europe's top car seller Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) posted a 17.9% increase in sales in July, the ACEA said, while BMW (BMWG.DE) and Renault (RENA.PA) saw sales rise 22.5% and 16.9% respectively.


But Stellantis (STLAM.MI), which has struggled with logistics problems and car deliveries in Europe, posted a 6.1% drop in sales in July.

The biggest news was the extreme drop in diesel ICE sales, from 50% of sales in 205 to just 14% of sales in 2023.
Despite the big increase in EV sales of 60%, because yhey are coming off such a low base, the EV sales are still less than the diesel sales.

Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Inflation in the EU can be looked at in many ways.
It has been declining, but could also be seen to have flatlined at a higher level than EU bankers would be comfortable with.

From Reuters

 

[mullokintyre]

Global use of the Euro as a currency has been declining on world markets.
From Zero Hedge

Mick

 

[qldfrog]

and here's an interesting development with the 3 Seas Initiative ... now we have Brics, and Quads, and Aukus, and G20 and Arab League, Belt and Road, etc
.

The saint alliance fighting the green plague as the EU gets invaded...
Think about it.....

 

[divs4ever]

Global use of the Euro as a currency has been declining on world markets.
From Zero Hedge
View attachment 163594
View attachment 163595

Mick

yes i am even nervous about HVN and it's exposure to selected EU markets

if Europe is a ' garden' it is suffering a serious 're-wilding ' problem

i have never seen so much self-mutilation outside of some of my favourite metal bands ( like the old Mayhem )

 

[mullokintyre]

Freight rates from China to the EU have been going in one direction only.
This has got to have a negative impact on trade, and also on Inflation.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

EU bankers got a bit os surprise when inflation went up slightly last month instead of the continued decline everone was prdicting/hoping for.
From Euro Stats

Mick

 

[divs4ever]

and i am wisely avoiding the self-congratulatory clown-cluster ( EU )

if it doesn't fail , i don't want to be invested there either ( you will be taxed to 'infinity and beyond ' )

 

[mullokintyre]

The left of centre ruling coalition in Germany have been stunned by massive defeats in tow states.
And it has come from swinging voters to both far left (CFD) and far right parties (AFD).
It will be the first time since WW2 that a far right party has ruled a German state.
And we know how well that ended.
Some interesting times ahead for Germany.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

The left of centre ruling coalition in Germany have been stunned by massive defeats in tow states.
And it has come from swinging voters to both far left (CFD) and far right parties (AFD).
It will be the first time since WW2 that a far right party has ruled a German state.
And we know how well that ended.
Some interesting times ahead for Germany.
Mick
View attachment 183580

given the current state of Germany only two results were likely

the current one or mandatory lobotomies for the residents

... BUT he can always try the Macron strategy .. ignore the results and just carry on regardless

remember that 'far-right party' was a Nationalist Socialist party , that helped a LOT of Germans before taking the military expansionist path

( how dare they usurp NATO/EU this time )

 

[qldfrog]

The left of centre ruling coalition in Germany have been stunned by massive defeats in tow states.
And it has come from swinging voters to both far left (CFD) and far right parties (AFD).
It will be the first time since WW2 that a far right party has ruled a German state.
And we know how well that ended.
Some interesting times ahead for Germany.
Mick
View attachment 183580

That is the EZ narrative, all parties fighting the invasion are far right nazis...so dangerous yet people being stabbed , killed and raped day after day in the EU are not victims of the nationalists
The danger is not there

 

[mullokintyre]

To no one's surprise, the CB cut interest rates by 25 bps.
They also cut their forecasts for GDP.
Mick

EDITED to add:

So they inflation expectations icreasing into 2024 and 2025 , but GDP growth slowing to less than inflation.

Mick

 

[qldfrog]

To no one's surprise, the CB cut interest rates by 25 bps.
They also cut their forecasts for GDP.
Mick



View attachment 184165
EDITED to add:
View attachment 184166
So they inflation expectations icreasing into 2024 and 2025 , but GDP growth slowing to less than inflation.

Mick

Getting poorer

 

[divs4ever]

Getting poorer

welcome to Josef's Garden ... i see they are applying more fertilizer , and trying to get Russia to dig up the plant beds for them

 

[mullokintyre]

German Factory orders fell significantly in August.
When does a contraction become a recession??
Mick