EU - the Forgotten Market

[qldfrog]

well that depends on what you call productivity .. after being in several ( pointless ) 'health and safety ' ( who couldn't even tell you what the fire-alarm sounds like and way worse distortions of information ) lectures ,and site inductions which never address basic safety issues

given the two current hospital extensions ( both car-parks proudly occupied by the CFMEU ) i am not sure how much 'productivity ' is occurring there either ( they have been at those for years now .. looks more like a money laundry .. or was it an election campaign )

why new schools ? isn't the population decreasing at the younger end of the scale ( and the population gravitating towards the cities )

in fact the high school i attended ( occasionally ) in Brisbane , put out a plea to stop it closing down ( which must have amused my school-mates who tried to burn it three times and blow it up at least once .

BTW the population is NOT stabilizing it is desperately trying to increase immigration

your theory is nice , but in operation it is going abysmally

take one 'inter-city ' rail line , 100 years in the planning/building .. but forgot to train enough rail employees to keep the service regular and that train-line was a whole eight kilometers long and had three new stations .. so now the local criminals 'can jump the train' and ( hopefully ) steal less cars ( and there are three new stations to get mugged at )

There was a 14% productivity loss in Australia in the building industry in recent year, this was in the headlines of serious papers and sites a couple of months ago, our per resident Australian wealth is falling: same static at best pie, more people eating it..and that does not even look at how shared this pie is, or seriously look at inflation impact on this data.
But that is economy, and could be sorted by proper government..fair hope...
The structural and social disintegration is of more dangerous nature and not evenly shared worldwide

 

[Value Hunter]

At the moment the government spends a huge amount of money each year because the population is expanding, without the population growth, tax revenue required shrinks.

Your argument is purely theoretical. In Australia at least the population will not decline or stabilize within your lifetime as no matter how low the birth rate drops they will just continue to fill the gap with immigration and population will continue to grow.

 

[Value Hunter]

At the moment the government spends a huge amount of money each year because the population is expanding, without the population growth, tax revenue required shrinks.

Even if population stopped growing and stabilized in Australia government expenditure would still grow due to the ageing of the population demographic. Pensions and health care, etc for old people costs the system a lot of money.

Obviously total expenditure would still be less than would be required with a growing population but currently you have: increasing tax base offsetting growing expenditure under the no population growth scenario you would have a stagnant tax base compared to increasing (albeit more slowly) expenditure.

 

[Value Collector]

Even if population stopped growing and stabilized in Australia government expenditure would still grow due to the ageing of the population demographic. Pensions and health care, etc for old people costs the system a lot of money.

Obviously total expenditure would still be less than would be required with a growing population but currently you have: increasing tax base offsetting growing expenditure under the no population growth scenario you would have a stagnant tax base compared to increasing (albeit more slowly) expenditure.

Yeah so spending would be exactly what it was going to be, minus the growth capex, why don’t you understand that? A growing population also means more old people eventually.

The tax base is based on output, as I said if the GdP continued to grow, and output continued to increase due to increased automation, the tax base could grow while the required spending was less.

 

[Value Hunter]

The tax base is based on output, as I said if the GdP continued to grow, and output continued to increase due to increased automation, the tax base could grow while the required spending was less.

Nice in theory but there are all kinds of reports saying that countries like Japan will eventually have their governments bankrupted by a skyrocketing dependency ratio.

Besides like I said before either way in Australia its a moot point:

Your argument is purely theoretical. In Australia at least the population will not decline or stabilize within your lifetime as no matter how low the birth rate drops they will just continue to fill the gap with immigration and population will continue to grow.

 

[Value Hunter]

The tax base is based on output, as I said if the GdP continued to grow, and output continued to increase due to increased automation,

Just so you are aware GDP per capita in Australia has been going backwards for the last 8 quarters.......

And furthermore as I pointed out earlier GDP per capita in Australia measured in U.S.A. dollars adjusted for CPI is lower now than in 2012. Is that the productivity growth you are referring to? The kind of productivity growth where we boost total output by immigration and inflation?

Bro stop living in Disneyland and join us in the real world.

 

[mullokintyre]

As much as I hate to upset the two values, I am going out on a limb and actually posting something that in a small way relates to the topic of this thread.
It seems that the lawmakers in the EU market have practiced their gymnastic moves in an attempt to back down on the threats to impose tariffs on Chinese EV's.
It seems that the Chinese had the temerity to threaten to curb exports of rems like Gallium and Germanium.
Ah, the law of unintended consequences.
From Zero hedge

mick

Edited to fix up copy and paste

 

[Value Collector]

Just so you are aware GDP per capita in Australia has been going backwards for the last 8 quarters.......

And furthermore as I pointed out earlier GDP per capita in Australia measured in U.S.A. dollars adjusted for CPI is lower now than in 2012. Is that the productivity growth you are referring to? The kind of productivity growth where we boost total output by immigration and inflation?

Bro stop living in Disneyland and join us in the real world.

And what happens to GDP per capita if GDP stays the same or grows, but the population declines or stabilises?

8 quarters is only 2 years, that’s not even a full Business cycle, and that’s probably only gone backwards because commodity prices are lower.

I am talking about way down the line when the global population starts to reduce but automation and AI really takes hold.

 

[Value Collector]

Bro stop living in Disneyland and join us in the real world.

Hahaha, Well I go to all sorts of theme parks the Disney and Universal ones just happen to be my favourite, maybe you should try them your self, it might put a bit more of a spring in your step.

But my travels aren’t limited to theme parks, in the last 12 months I have driven across the 19 states of the USA, driven top to bottom of UK and am currently in Switzerland having just been to France and Germany.

Here is a little song to get you started that might dowse some of the cynicism and pessimism you are afflicted with, it was true then and I believe it’s true now. That song was written during the Vietnam war and Cold War nuclear arms race, there was oil shocks coming, stock market busts, and many many things the doom dayers had to worry about, but none of it held the economy or progress back in the long run.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

As much as I hate to upset the two values, I am going out on a limb and actually posting something that in a small way relates to the topic of this thread.
It seems that the lawmakers in the EU market have practiced their gymnastic moves in an attempt to back down on the threats to impose tariffs on Chinese EV's.
It seems that the Chinese had the temerity to threaten to curb exports of rems like Gallium and Germanium.
Ah, the law of unintended consequences.
From Zero hedge


View attachment 187070
mick

Edited to fix up copy and paste

we can but try

 

[qldfrog]

If you read the article, did i just notice that the Chinese gov wants to put all exporting companies under one umbrella..fair
Why target byd or saic differently,?
And this includes BMW . And would Tesla if tesla was exporting chinese made vehicles into the EU.
I find that brilliant

 

[mullokintyre]

German ruling coalition collapses, and fresh elections are called.
It seems to have been triggered by Trumps election, but that may be merely an extension of TDS where he gets blamed for anything.
It could be that FDP, being a centre right party that is centred around liberalism, small government etc, may have been emoldened by trumps sucess, and demanded something Scholz could not give.
Whatever the reason, one suspects that SDP hopes that TDS spreads through Germany and the right of centre parties get killed off.
Time will tell.
mick

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

German ruling coalition collapses, and fresh elections are called.
It seems to have been triggered by Trumps election, but that may be merely an extension of TDS where he gets blamed for anything.
It could be that FDP, being a centre right party that is centred around liberalism, small government etc, may have been emoldened by trumps sucess, and demanded something Scholz could not give.
Whatever the reason, one suspects that SDP hopes that TDS spreads through Germany and the right of centre parties get killed off.
Time will tell.
mick

View attachment 187512

The only thing that will save Germany is to unite under a strong leader and arm up to take on other powers in the region. Everyone else thinks they are progressive patsies for immigration and every -ism under the perverts' umbrella.

Oops.

They tried that and it didn't end up well.

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

Except for one gorious but frief period in 2008, the EU has consisty fallen behind the US in terms if economic activity.
the US has pulled away from the EU.
Mick