Lithium

[greggles]

Lithium has had a great run in recent years due to increasing demand from primarily electric car and battery manufacturers. However, just recently I have noticed various reports suggesting that lithium supply is going to outstrip demand in the coming years due to the increased production largely coming from Chile and Australia. Yesterday, Morgan Stanley forecast that lithium prices would fall by 45% by 2021 as a result of increasing global supply. Another article at oilprice.com is similarly suggesting that the current lithium price is approaching bubble territory.

Of course, there is no shortage of articles suggesting the exact opposite, that while lithium supply will undoubtedly grow so will demand. A number of countries, including China and India, are planning to phase out sales of gasoline and diesel cars entirely, although most of the timelines I have seen suggest that this is 15 to 25 years away. Some smaller European countries such as Norway hope to implement bans as early as 2025.

Then there is the battery market which has grown strongly due to the proliferation of smart phones and other portable electronic devices, not to mention the huge growth of solar power where the bulk of battery sales are yet to come due to the current price of products like the Tesla Powerwall not representing a good return on investment for most of those home owners with solar panels installed on their roofs.

So, what is the future of lithium? Apparently it is abundant and relatively cheap to mine. I guess the big question is, can demand keep up with supply?

 

[Wysiwyg]

I have been listening to the people on the ground and in the boardrooms that are moving toward production and expansion with forward sales years ahead. Be interesting to see where the MS analysts did their crystal ball prophesying regarding future supply/demand imbalances. Nevertheless they have their unquestioning followers and there is a chance they could jag the imbalance correctly. If not I doubt anyone will remember the report and it won't make any difference except to the MS followers that exited. Anyone can forecast anything without a track record of accuracy these days.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Article on Li. battery improvements ahead.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ba...aiting-for-is-only-a-few-years-out-1521374401

 

[Wysiwyg]

LIT, the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF, has triple timed the support level of 33usd. A break lower is the next question to be answered and potentially bad for already under pressure Lithium stocks.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Research commissioned by AMEC found the $165 billion global lithium value chain would grow to at least $2 trillion by 2025.

Lithium giant SQM backs rush to build on-shore refineries (click to read)

 

[greggles]

This is the only chart lithium price bears need see

Perhaps that lithium supply surplus won't be here as quickly as some analysts predict.

 

[HelloU]

yep, a lot of talk re vehicles and houses for demand, but the more I use the 18v power tools that can do a hard days work the more I look forward to 36v, or 48v, or 72v (or whatever) mowers, vacuums, chainsaws, outboards etc getting mainstream. Imagine a 5 minute job taking 5 minutes instead of the first 10 minutes taken up with getting the engine started or finding an extension lead.

 

[Wysiwyg]

This is the only chart lithium price bears need see

Perhaps that lithium supply surplus won't be here as quickly as some analysts predict.

Are they rain clouds I see in the distance. W.A. hard rock devotee.

 

[greggles]

I found this document elsewhere and thought some here might find it useful.

It's a list of ASX-listed lithium stocks and their 30 day, 3 month and 12 month share price performance. List was generated today.

 

[Buy&Forget]

Yes a nice looking entry point at these subdued levels. Galaxy (GXY) is taking my interest at present..debt free, cashed up & diversified with 3 major projects globally..already producing free-cash-flow here in W.A. Great comment also by HelloU with regards to future 36/48/72 v devices to be powered by lithium rather than I.C.E...extension cords etc..I'd love to see that with an outboard/boat propeller

 

[Buy&Forget]

Must add that I do own some GXY stock and i'm now buying this current dip to increase my holding for long-term hold. I'm looking for other lithium stocks on-the-cheap for diversification

 

[Trav.]

Another article on the Lithium supply issue

'Lithium stocks have taken a beating because investors don’t understand the lithium supply chain an analyst told a Melbourne mining conference on Tuesday.'

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/...tors-misunderstand-one-key-point-analyst/amp/

 

[trading_rookie]

Must add that I do own some GXY stock and i'm now buying this current dip to increase my holding for long-term hold. I'm looking for other lithium stocks on-the-cheap for diversification

Good call on GXY up 5.3%
ORE up 6%, ASN up 13, KDR up 9%, and 4CE up 20%

I've been watching this commodity for sometime now and the damning analyst report has definately had an effect on price.
I wonder if the article on investors not understanding the supply chain has had a reverse effect.

 

[kid hustlr]

ORE, KDR, GXY all starting to look interesting again.

They are a long way of their highs however is it possible these will go on another run?

 

[rsjones]

Lithium has had a great run in recent years due to increasing demand from primarily electric car and battery manufacturers. However, just recently I have noticed various reports suggesting that lithium supply is going to outstrip demand in the coming years due to the increased production largely coming from Chile and Australia. Yesterday, Morgan Stanley forecast that lithium prices would fall by 45% by 2021 as a result of increasing global supply. Another article at oilprice.com is similarly suggesting that the current lithium price is approaching bubble territory.

Of course, there is no shortage of articles suggesting the exact opposite, that while lithium supply will undoubtedly grow so will demand. A number of countries, including China and India, are planning to phase out sales of gasoline and diesel cars entirely, although most of the timelines I have seen suggest that this is 15 to 25 years away. Some smaller European countries such as Norway hope to implement bans as early as 2025.

Then there is the battery market which has grown strongly due to the proliferation of smart phones and other portable electronic devices, not to mention the huge growth of solar power where the bulk of battery sales are yet to come due to the current price of products like the Tesla Powerwall not representing a good return on investment for most of those home owners with solar panels installed on their roofs.

So, what is the future of lithium? Apparently it is abundant and relatively cheap to mine. I guess the big question is, can demand keep up with supply?

Any one here with experience in buying/selling lithium stocks can you guys recommend which lithium stock is good to buy and flip it in a short time

 

[rsjones]

ORE, KDR, GXY all starting to look interesting again.

They are a long way of their highs however is it possible these will go on another run?

which of these 3 stocks is better to buy/sell

 

[rsjones]

which of these 3 stocks is better to buy/sell

how high do you think KDR will likely go from current levels

 

[Ann]

Business News
January 21, 2019 / 5:28 AM / Updated 2 hours ago
Berkshire's lithium venture may supply U.S. automakers, including Tesla: FT

(Reuters) - Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc has signed an agreement to allow extraction of lithium from its geothermal wells in California, a project that could offer U.S. carmakers and battery producers a secure supply of the metal, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

The venture has been in talks to supply Tesla Inc with lithium, a component for batteries to power electric cars, the newspaper reported, citing people familiar with the company.

Berkshire Hathaway’s geothermal wells could produce up to 90,000 tonnes of lithium a year worth $1.5 billion at current prices, the report said, citing a fundraising document. More......

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...gn=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(Business+News)

 

[Ann]

This is a chart for the price of Lithium. It appears Lithium has had a massive jump in price, no wonder Buffet has hopped into it.
Site with price for Lithium.

I will try to find a list of all of the Lithium companies we have in Australia in the next day or two. Although I think they have been listed on previous posts here, not sure.

 

[HelloU]

https://www.metalbulletin.com/lithium-prices-update
......hydroxide is the go to product, but carbonate pricing more widely used.