May DDD 2025

[divs4ever]

The "female economy" is big and getting bigger.

one of the weaknesses in my portfolio research and planning

no regular female feed-back

however i am still travelling well on AX1 ( i bought in before the name-change ) MOZ looks like a total loss , and DSK is doing OK so far ( but only bought in the middle of last year )

i should probably double-back and reassess SHM ( where i had a profitable ride between 2018 and 2023 )

 

[ducati916]

Are you able to provide the source for that COT report format please Duc?

Morning Joe90,

So the report above is proprietary to All Star Charts. I'm not sure how they construct it.

However, this resource is far superior in my opinion:https://commitmentsoftraders.org/cot-charts/

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

• After rising for four straight weeks, the U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) dropped -1.9% this week, closing at its lowest levels since March 2022.
  
• $DXY is on track for a four-month losing streak. It was up more than +2% at one point this month. However, it's currently down -0.5% with five trading days remaining in May.
  
  
• Sam notes that the Dollar's recent bounce was nothing more than a Bear Flag within an ongoing downtrend that began earlier this year. If $DXY continues to trade below support at $100, the path of least resistance is lower.
  

The Takeaway: The U.S. Dollar ($DXY) closed at a three-year low this week, as it resolves lower from a potential Bear Flag. If $DXY continues to trade below $100, the path of least resistance is lower.





jog on
duc

 

[Joe90]

Morning Joe90,

So the report above is proprietary to All Star Charts. I'm not sure how they construct it.

However, this resource is far superior in my opinion:https://commitmentsoftraders.org/cot-charts/

jog on
duc

Thank you Duc.

 

[ducati916]

YCC coming to a town near you.




So Fed Balance sheet exploded higher as debt was used to finance the war effort.



Rates were capped at 2.5% for 10yrs.




Real rates were negative. This inflated away the debt.

Meanwhile stocks exceeded the inflation rate. This was at a time where the US was the manufacturing power globally. Much like China is today.

Which is why there is so much hoo hah about technology, chips, etc.

China dominates in the manufacture of widgets. China seeks to equal or exceed in the provision of technology also, which is currently pretty much the only thing that the US leads in.

The US for tax revenue collection needs the stock market to rise +/- 10% every year forever. Or at least until they inflate away the debt to something around 70% of GDP.

To stand still:




So 'Nominal' GDP includes the inflation rate.

So ABSOLUTELY will we get inflation. 100%. Because the only other option is that the US declares bankruptcy and defaults on the debt. I'll leave it to you to check when that level of NGDP was achieved in US history.


So UST and USD will lose a lot of value.

If you pick the right stocks, depending on what the inflation rate is, you could do well.

Gold will continue to outperform.


Which brings me to BTC.

I posted this without comment yesterday:




$187 Billion to $27 Trillion in 5yrs as transfer volume. So these things are pretty important/central to the ecosystem.

Stablecoins are the #6 holder of UST.
They don't disclose anything to regulators.
They claim a 100% correlation to the USD: ie. they won't break the buck.

In the US stock market buys and sells are facilitated through Market Makers. Big Banks that are heavily regulated. The ASX is buyer to seller.

So Stablecoins are akin somewhat it would seem to a market maker.

BTC values are therefore subject to the price that the MM decides. Only this MM is unregulated, opaque and possibly a criminal operation.

I suppose you could also transact peer-to-peer. I give you cash, you give me BTC but that could be clunky, somewhat akin to selling your house. The central idea of BTC is that it is fast, has no borders, blah, blah.

If however we move to YCC and call it 2.5%. Inflation moves to 8%. We have negative real rates. What happens to stablecoins who hold a truckload of UST paper? What happens to BTC?

So Stablecoins have refused to be audited. Yet US authorities have continued to allow them to operate. They are the #6 holder of UST.

Hmmmm.

The higher BTC trades, the more UST paper stablecoins buy.

Hmmm.

The whole meme around BTC and crypto is that you are just too dumb to understand it.

Hmmm.

Michael Saylor and MSTR were bankrupt for the second time. MSTR was a shitty company. Saylor gambled and went all-in on BTC. He is now a shameless apologist for BTC and implies that he was smart enough to understand the potential of BTC. Bull. He was bankrupt and had no choice other than to gamble everything or go bankrupt.

Hmmm.

MSTR is a textbook bootstrap operation. It now has a significant number of imitators, which of course increases the price of BTC. Part of the 'value' of BTC is actually the volatility, which is fading.

Hmmm.

Everything that the advocates of BTC have claimed to date...has not happened. LOL. What has happened is that as the price went higher, the narrative changed to explain the rise.

Hmmm.

Needless to say, I wouldn't give the steam off my piss for BTC.


jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

YCC coming to a town near you.


View attachment 200163

So Fed Balance sheet exploded higher as debt was used to finance the war effort.

View attachment 200162

Rates were capped at 2.5% for 10yrs.


View attachment 200161

Real rates were negative. This inflated away the debt.

Meanwhile stocks exceeded the inflation rate. This was at a time where the US was the manufacturing power globally. Much like China is today.

Which is why there is so much hoo hah about technology, chips, etc.

China dominates in the manufacture of widgets. China seeks to equal or exceed in the provision of technology also, which is currently pretty much the only thing that the US leads in.

The US for tax revenue collection needs the stock market to rise +/- 10% every year forever. Or at least until they inflate away the debt to something around 70% of GDP.

To stand still:

View attachment 200164


So 'Nominal' GDP includes the inflation rate.

So ABSOLUTELY will we get inflation. 100%. Because the only other option is that the US declares bankruptcy and defaults on the debt. I'll leave it to you to check when that level of NGDP was achieved in US history.


So UST and USD will lose a lot of value.

If you pick the right stocks, depending on what the inflation rate is, you could do well.

Gold will continue to outperform.


Which brings me to BTC.

I posted this without comment yesterday:


View attachment 200165

$187 Billion to $27 Trillion in 5yrs as transfer volume. So these things are pretty important/central to the ecosystem.

Stablecoins are the #6 holder of UST.
They don't disclose anything to regulators.
They claim a 100% correlation to the USD: ie. they won't break the buck.

In the US stock market buys and sells are facilitated through Market Makers. Big Banks that are heavily regulated. The ASX is buyer to seller.

So Stablecoins are akin somewhat it would seem to a market maker.

BTC values are therefore subject to the price that the MM decides. Only this MM is unregulated, opaque and possibly a criminal operation.

I suppose you could also transact peer-to-peer. I give you cash, you give me BTC but that could be clunky, somewhat akin to selling your house. The central idea of BTC is that it is fast, has no borders, blah, blah.

If however we move to YCC and call it 2.5%. Inflation moves to 8%. We have negative real rates. What happens to stablecoins who hold a truckload of UST paper? What happens to BTC?

So Stablecoins have refused to be audited. Yet US authorities have continued to allow them to operate. They are the #6 holder of UST.

Hmmmm.

The higher BTC trades, the more UST paper stablecoins buy.

Hmmm.

The whole meme around BTC and crypto is that you are just too dumb to understand it.

Hmmm.

Michael Saylor and MSTR were bankrupt for the second time. MSTR was a shitty company. Saylor gambled and went all-in on BTC. He is now a shameless apologist for BTC and implies that he was smart enough to understand the potential of BTC. Bull. He was bankrupt and had no choice other than to gamble everything or go bankrupt.

Hmmm.

MSTR is a textbook bootstrap operation. It now has a significant number of imitators, which of course increases the price of BTC. Part of the 'value' of BTC is actually the volatility, which is fading.

Hmmm.

Everything that the advocates of BTC have claimed to date...has not happened. LOL. What has happened is that as the price went higher, the narrative changed to explain the rise.

Hmmm.

Needless to say, I wouldn't give the steam off my piss for BTC.


jog on
duc

YCC?
If you are a finance beginner like me:

Yield curve control - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Great article Mr Duc

 

[ducati916]

So following on from YCC

We had the downgrade of US debt last week. Prior to markets opening there was some concern as to whether or not this would be a market moving event.

We have this chap:




Hmm, some context:



So actually the downgrades came just before the BoJ launched into outright YCC.

The US Fed situation:



So we have had QT. from the Fed. It has necessitated some really hidden from view machinations every time there has been a liquidity crisis from the Treasury, but at least the 'data' suggests that the Fed have been reducing assets.

But



What if the downgrade is because the ratings agencies know that the Fed is about to scrap QT and return to QE or YCC?

Because this is what YCC means: the Fed buys every iota of debt issued by the govt. so as to not allow rates to rise above let's say 2.5%

Debt is again a certificate of confiscation. LOL.

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

So following on from YCC

We had the downgrade of US debt last week. Prior to markets opening there was some concern as to whether or not this would be a market moving event.

We have this chap:


View attachment 200253

Hmm, some context:

View attachment 200252

So actually the downgrades came just before the BoJ launched into outright YCC.

The US Fed situation:

View attachment 200251

So we have had QT. from the Fed. It has necessitated some really hidden from view machinations every time there has been a liquidity crisis from the Treasury, but at least the 'data' suggests that the Fed have been reducing assets.

But

View attachment 200250

What if the downgrade is because the ratings agencies know that the Fed is about to scrap QT and return to QE or YCC?

Because this is what YCC means: the Fed buys every iota of debt issued by the govt. so as to not allow rates to rise above let's say 2.5%

Debt is again a certificate of confiscation. LOL.

jog on
duc

now it seems ( conveniently ) forgotten that the Fed was also buying a lot of 'mortgage-backed securities ' from distressed banks especially since 2022

is that asset decline simply these 'mortgage-backed securities being offloaded ( or allowed to mature )

it is entirely incorrect to believe all the Fed assets are US Treasuries ( of various duration )

 

[ducati916]

now it seems ( conveniently ) forgotten that the Fed was also buying a lot of 'mortgage-backed securities ' from distressed banks especially since 2022

is that asset decline simply these 'mortgage-backed securities being offloaded ( or allowed to mature )

it is entirely incorrect to believe all the Fed assets are US Treasuries ( of various duration )

Morning @divs4ever

Correct.

Which rather pre-empts my next post:




Full:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...yed-move-to-privatize-fannie-freddie-wsj-says

• Over the last 12 years, FNM and FRE’s balance sheets have been whittled down to ~$300 billion, combined.
• Treasury and the FHFA would both need to agree to release FNM/FRE from conservatorship.
• FNM & FRE have ~$100B of retained earnings between the two of them; if they raised another $25-50 billion from the markets (or from private investors), they would essentially have ~$125-150B of equity capital in total.
• FHFA, their regulator, mandates a 3% capital ratio. Which would mean that $125-150B in equity capital could be levered up to 33x, creating total balance sheet capacity of up to $4-5 trillion, virtually overnight.

The powers that be are continually coming up with new ways (or old ways brought back) to create Balance Sheet to buy UST/MBS that are effectively QE/YCC.

Buying debt is a sure way to the poorhouse unless you are a specialist in this area buying distressed debt.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Oil News

- As the US hurricane season officially starts June 1, oil markets have been placing their bets on potential supply disruptions as the NOAA predicts the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season to be above normal. - The agency is forecasting 13 to 19 named storms, of which 3 to 5 are expected to become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or higher), citing high heat content in the Atlantic Ocean and reduced trade winds. - Last year’s largest hurricane - Francine - prompted the shutdown of three major refineries (ExxonMobil’s Baton Rouge, Marathon’s Garyville, and Shell’s Norco), but led to limited equipment damage, allowing for a relatively swift resumption of downstream activities. - Meanwhile, US gasoline demand as gauged by the Energy Information Administration dipped to a 5-year low, at 8.8 million b/d in the week ending May 16, reversing a streak of four consecutive weekly increases. Market Movers - Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is reportedly exploring asset sales to generate revenue, having bought into US LNG firm MidOcean and Latin American retailers Esmax and Primax in recent months. - Bahrain is currently negotiating a short-term LNG supply deal with Russia, potentially importing up to 1.5 mtpa of liquefied natural gas from Novatek’s (MCX:NVTK) portfolio. - Li Zhenguo, founder of China’s largest solar energy manufacturer Longi Green(SHA:601012), will step down as CEO after the company posted a $1.2 billion loss last year and is set to remain negative in 2025, too. - Meeting with Libya’s Oil Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq this week, London-based oil major Shell (LON:SHEL) is looking to regain its footprint in Libya after it divested all its assets in Area 89 in May 2012. Tuesday, May 27, 2025 Last week’s scare of President Trump forcing a US-EU tariff war has subsided after the mulled 50% tariff was postponed until at least July 9, keeping ICE Brent relatively range-bound at $65 per barrel. With Russia-Ukraine talks failing to achieve anything substantial, and US-Iran negotiations remaining similarly static, OPEC+ will be the main price setter over the next week. Saturday to Prompt New Oil Price Drop. Eight OPEC+ countries that committed to voluntary production cuts will meet on May 31, one day earlier than previously assumed, as the ‘Great Eight’ is expected to bring back another 411,000 b/d of production into July, the third consecutive month of expedited unwinding. OPEC’s Hidden Spot to See More Production. The Neutral Zone, an oil-rich territory shared by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, could see more production very soon after the two countries announced a new oil discovery there north of the Wafra field, the first find since output was resumed in 2020. Norway’s Gas Woes Lift European Gas. European TTF benchmark gas prices rose to their highest since early April, surpassing €37 per MWh on Monday, after Norway’s largest gas field Troll was forced to extend a partial outage until May 31 due to a compressor failure, cutting 34.6 MCm/day. Earthquakes Shake Copper Production Outlook. Canadian miner Ivanhoe Mines (TSE:IVN) said that it had suspended its 2025 production guidance of 520,000-580,000 tonnes for the Kamoa-Kakula giant copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, citing underground tremors. Trump Approves Nippon Steel’s Bid. Reversing Joe Biden’s veto on Nippon Steel’s $14 billion acquisition of US Steel (NYSE:X), President Trump approved the deal in a surprise move, creating the world’s third-largest steel producer, following only China’s Baowu Steel and Luxembourg’s ArcelorMittal. Libya Halts Pipeline After Desert Oil Leak. Libya’s National Oil Company halted parts of the 300,000 b/d pipeline system bringing crude oil to the country’s largest refinery in Zawiya after a huge oil leak was discovered in the desert just south of Zawiya, seeking to determine the causes of the spillage. Exxon Moves on With Top Arbitration Deal of 2025. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and fellow major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) started their London arbitration process to determine the fate of the $53 billion Chevron-Hess deal, with Exxon claiming first refusal right on Hess’ Guyanese assets. Pitching a Trade Deal, South Africa Eyes US LNG. South Africa has offered to buy US liquefied natural gas over a 10-year period, a trade flow worth around $1 billion per year, as part of a bid to secure a comprehensive trade deal, having been temporarily hit with a 30% import tariff rate. EPA to Scrap Greenhouse Gas Plant Limits. The US Environmental Protection Agency, led by Lee Zeldin, has reportedly drafted a plan to eliminate all greenhouse gas emission limits from coal and gas-fired power plants across the country, saying those emissions have no major impact on public health. Tanzania Readies Huge Licensing Spree. 11 years after Tanzania’s last upstream bidding round was held, the African country is preparing its 5th licensing round, which would see 26 blocks on offer, of which 23 will be located offshore, seeking to resuscitate the stalled $42 billion Tanzania LNG project. Trump’s Tariffs Add Billions in Customs Revenue. Revenue from US customs duties rose to $16.5 billion in April, effectively doubling the country’s collection of trade levies compared to March, with most of President Trump’s tariff impact coming via the 25% steel and aluminium duty as well as an equivalent levy on imported cars. Fire Halts Ecuador’s Biggest Refinery. Ecuador declared an emergency and halted all operations at its 110,000 b/d Esmeraldas refinery, the largest in the country, after a fire broke out at a fuel oil storage tank, with national oil firm Petroecuador stating it needed to shut down out of precaution. Indonesia Still Sees a Future for Its Coal. Indonesia made a U-turn on its previous pledge not to build any new coal-fired power plants with its new 10-year power supply plan, seeking to add 69.5 GW of new generation capacity by the end of 2034, factoring in economic growth of 8% by 2029 compared to the current 5%.

“War does not determine who is right—only who is left.”— Bertrand Russell
For centuries, Estonia has alternated between brief periods of independence and long stretches of domination by foreign powers. With a land area smaller than West Virginia and a population of just 1.4 million, its vulnerability is amplified by geography. As a buffer state between Western Europe and Russia with strategic access to the Baltic Sea, the country has often been treated as a pawn between stronger warring parties. Estonia gained its independence when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and joined both the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 2004.
The Gulf of Finland, a narrow corridor that separates Estonia and Finland, serves as a primary transit route for Russian cargo, including significant quantities of oil. At its narrowest, the Gulf of Finland spans just 32 miles, and a seven-mile-wide stretch near its center serves as an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The EEZ is governed as an international passage under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Under UNCLOS Article 37, Estonia and Finland cannot restrict ships from passing through or otherwise impede passage, except in very limited circumstances.

​

Chokepoint | International Mapping
The small fraction of the 335 million Americans who happen upon this article might be surprised to learn that they have an Article 5 obligation to defend Estonia militarily should it be attacked—and that the odds of such a scenariohave climbed measurably in the past two weeks:

“A tense maritime incident unfolded today off the Estonian coast when Estonian naval forces attempted to detain the M/T JAGUAR, a crude oil tanker allegedly part of Russia’s shadow fleet. Estonian forces deployed a helicopter, patrol aircraft, and patrol boat to intercept the vessel, which apparently refused to comply with orders to halt or alter course.
The situation escalated when a Russian Su-35S fighter jet entered Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland in what appeared to be an attempt to deter Estonian forces.”

Despite Russia’s long-standing warnings that any interference with its trade through the Gulf of Finland would constitute an escalation justifying a military response, much of the Western media spun the story as Russia violating NATO airspace—as though this were not the response Estonia knowingly provoked. A few days after the incident, Russia sent another message:

“Russia detained a Greek-owned oil tanker on Sunday after it left an Estonian port in the Gulf of Finland, the Estonian Foreign Ministry said, adding it had alerted NATO allies to the incident.
The Liberia-flagged ship Green Admire was leaving Sillamae port using a designated navigation channel that crosses Russian territorial waters, the ministry said in a statement.
‘This is definitely connected to the fact that we have started to harass Russia's shadow fleet,’ Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told Estonian broadcaster ERR.”

​

Margus Tsahkna, poker of bears | Getty
These events highlight a growing rupture between much of NATO’s European contingent and President Trump over the war in Ukraine that could ultimately lead to the US departing the alliance. At a time when Trump—however haphazardly or controversially—is actively pursuing an end to hostilities, many leaders in Europe appear intent on undermining such efforts. Among those pushing back the hardest is the former prime minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, who now sits in the prime foreign affairs seat for the European Council. What is an economically and militarily insignificant country doing provoking war with Russia? What are the implications for the United States and its shaky alignment with NATO? This underreported situation deserves our attention, so let’s dig in...









Stocks are higher pretty much across the board.

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

Morning @divs4ever

Correct.

Which rather pre-empts my next post:

View attachment 200263View attachment 200262


Full:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...yed-move-to-privatize-fannie-freddie-wsj-says




View attachment 200264

• Over the last 12 years, FNM and FRE’s balance sheets have been whittled down to ~$300 billion, combined.
• Treasury and the FHFA would both need to agree to release FNM/FRE from conservatorship.
• FNM & FRE have ~$100B of retained earnings between the two of them; if they raised another $25-50 billion from the markets (or from private investors), they would essentially have ~$125-150B of equity capital in total.
• FHFA, their regulator, mandates a 3% capital ratio. Which would mean that $125-150B in equity capital could be levered up to 33x, creating total balance sheet capacity of up to $4-5 trillion, virtually overnight.

The powers that be are continually coming up with new ways (or old ways brought back) to create Balance Sheet to buy UST/MBS that are effectively QE/YCC.

Buying debt is a sure way to the poorhouse unless you are a specialist in this area buying distressed debt.


jog on
duc

Fannie and Freddie being thrown into the public ( ownership ) ??

would that work long term Fannie and Freddie have a reputation of financing marginal home buyers , without a significant safety net from the government , surely it can't function as was originally designed in stressful times

also could Fannie and Freddie cope if the Fed stops buying mortgage-backed securities ( from them ) in times of tight liquidity

short term , the extra income ( i would assume the float/sale would be profitable ) would be a welcomed reduction to government debt .. and neither Freddie nor Fannie are regularly profitable ( without the Fed back-stop
) so you really can't call them a proper government asset ( say like Telstra was to Australia pre-float )

certainly something that will be educational to the retail investors ( as it would take a fair slab of capital off the side-lines ... maybe out of short-term bonds as well )

 

[divs4ever]

***

Indonesia Still Sees a Future for Its Coal. Indonesia made a U-turn on its previous pledge not to build any new coal-fired power plants with its new 10-year power supply plan, seeking to add 69.5 GW of new generation capacity by the end of 2034, factoring in economic growth of 8% by 2029 compared to the current 5%.

***

given Indonesia has a policy of value-adding to it's raw resources , yes the need for extra for extra power generation should be expected and Indonesia has it's share of coal so nicely logical ,

will Indonesia in the longer term start looking at modern nuclear power tech ?

 

[ducati916]

Sentiment is finally normalizing after a rare and extended stretch of pessimism toward stocks. According to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, bulls outnumbered bears for the first time in 15 weeks. Ryan notes that the S&P 500 has historically posted strong gains following similar sentiment resets. There have been only eight prior instances since 1990 in which bears dominated for 15 consecutive weeks or more. With the lone exception of 2008, the S&P 500 was higher 6–12 months later every time. On average, the index gained +8.2% over the following six months—roughly double the typical return over that timeframe. The Takeaway: When persistent pessimism finally fades, it often marks the beginning of a sustained move higher for stocks.

Humans think in terms of narratives. We’re hot-wired to do so; condense something complicated into a story, and we understand it more easily. That raises the risk of over-simplification and narrative fallacy — a notion from Nassim Taleb — in which we grab hold of a version of events and allow it to color incoming data. Much market analysis is about comprehensible stories, without fallacy. It’s not easy. Any good tale, even if it’s untrue, can change prices — and thereby the economy surrounding it — if enough people believe it. That creates possible turning points. When everyone is positioned for one narrative, and something happens to cast doubt on it, there is money to be made. That might be the case at present, as the facts allow starkly different explanations. The S&P 500 had a great, broad advance Tuesday. It’s up 19% since its nadir on April 8, one of the biggest rallies ever for the index. But it’s equally true that the S&P is lower than six months ago, and from the close on the day after the election. How should we view it? Here are the narratives driving markets now: The Bond Vigilantes Have Gone Away This is a reversal of last week’s “The Bond Vigilantes are back, and this time they really mean it” story. Both infer the narrative from the price; long bond yields spiked across the world a few days ago because the vigilantes were balking at governments’ excessive demands. Now that yields are down, there’s a twist in the tale and supposedly vigilantes aren’t so bothered. This is what happened to 30-year Japanese yields after the government announced it was considering fiddling with issuance to borrow less over the longest terms — a move that reduces supply for the longest bonds and thereby their yields: An immense buildup in JGB yields remains intact, but US investors were heartened. Then Tuesday’s auction of Treasuries was much better received than last week’s, and bond investors decided the danger was over. They were helped by a reappraisal of the narrative surrounding the One Big Beautiful Bill, which involves both large tax cuts and significant spending curbs on politically sensitive programs like Medicaid. Last week, that was seen as irresponsibly boosting the deficit. Matthew Klein of the Overshoot newsletter points out that expectations of a much higher deficit were based on the technicality that the first-term Trump tax cuts were due to end. As everyone assumed that a Republican Congress would extend those cuts, the likely impact of this package is much tougher on the deficit than expected — even more so if tariffs really generate some revenue: Some of the cuts look politically untenable, and the package must survive the Senate. But the most accurate narrative for now might be: “Bond vigilantes are stirring, but governments can still just about keep them in check.” US Consumers Are Back Americans continue to be the world’s spenders of last resort, and opinion surveys suggest they are angry and confused. After startling declines in consumer confidence that troughed in April with tariffs dominating the news, the Conference Board showed the biggest monthly leap of confidence since 2009. Beyond that, in the last 50 years only the months after the end of the first Gulf War, the fall of Saddam Hussein’s statue in Baghdad, and Hurricane Katrina have seen bigger rebounds: Rather than by a war or a hurricane, confidence this time was driven by one politician’s plan, and then his change of mind. The Conference Board also had decent news on inflation expectations, which ballooned after the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements. Forecasts remain uncomfortably high, but consumers almost always predict worse inflation than actually results: These numbers are at least more palatable than the frankly horrifying predictions that consumers gave to the University of Michigan. Those numbers showed consumers bracing for a repeat of the 1970s: That’s a scary narrative, and people are only happy for an excuse (such as the Conference Board data) to abandon it. They have another excuse, too... The TACO Trade Is On This one was christened by friend and former colleague Rob Armstrong of the Financial Times. TACO stands for Trump Always Chickens Out. I wish I’d thought of that one. Traders have noted the president’s propensity to make threats, scare the market, and then pull back. Now they are skipping the selloff, and assuming that Trump always caves. The fast-disappearing 50% tariffs on the European Union was the greatest example, as we showed yesterday: Adding ballast to the TACO case is the link between consumer confidence, angst over tariffs, and presidential approval. Voters approve of Trump chickening out on tariffs, and traders assume that the president has also noticed this. Maybe his improving approval rating emboldened him to threaten a new tariff on the EU: The TACO assumption is that henceforward Trump 2.0 will be like Trump 1.0: tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal largesse. One problem with this is that if the bond vigilantes have really been appeased, that implies no fiscal stimulus for everyone to feast on; two positive narratives are in direct conflict. There is another problem. If his threats are merely negotiating tactics and seen as such, then they’re useless in a negotiation. Trump has broadcast his enthusiasm for tariffs for decades before he entered politics, and even after his climbdowns, tariffs are the highest in decades. It’s not clear he will always back off. Which leads to a third problem: that TACO traders are too confident by half. Peter Atwater of Financial Insyghts suggests the trade is now so brazen as to signal trouble ahead: The open air grifting feels like it has now reached bubble status. The collective invulnerability is palpable with participants at all levels believing it is unstoppable. No one believes the crowd’s moral compass will swing back. Put simply, it feels like something big is about to happen.

Energy prices are plunging, a boost for consumers and businesses alike — and a key White House talking point, too. Why it matters: Lower oil and gasoline prices could offset some of the consumer pain if prices on a slew of other goods go up as a result of the trade wars. But it likely won't be enough to entirely shield the economy from the tariff shock. By the numbers: As of this morning, it cost roughly $62 for a barrel of crude oil — well below the most recent peak of $80 in early January. Since April, crude prices have plunged by more than $10. That sharp decline in prices reflects expectations for weaker demand as global growth slows. Oil cartel members (and non-members) have also agreed to ramp up production. That has helped push down pump prices for consumers. A White House release showed the lowest average gasoline prices for a Memorial Day weekend since 2021, confirmed by AAA. Yes, but: While those low prices are a go-to political bragging point, it might not be as economically significant. In a recent note, Goldman Sachs economists say that lower oil prices "won't offset much" of the inflationary or growth impact from tariffs. "While lower oil prices will boost real disposable income and real consumer spending, they will also weigh on energy capital expenditures from lower oil prices," Jessica Rindels, an economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a recent note. Rystad Energy estimates that oil majors will "likely need to reduce both investment and shareholder payouts" as a result of "recent double-digit dips in oil prices not reversing," according to a note from the energy research firm. Goldman expects the drag from energy firms will cancel out much of the benefits from higher consumer spending. The net effect will be a roughly 0.1 percentage point GDP boost over 2025. State of play: Goldman says the decline in energy prices has already pulled down headline inflation — as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index — by roughly 0.2 percentage points as of March. The energy price relief would spill over into non-energy categories and help drag the core PCE measure down by as much as 0.1 percentage point through the end of the year if oil prices remain at current levels. "But this drag is much smaller than the boost from tariffs, and we therefore expect year-over-year headline PCE inflation to rise from 2.3% currently to 3.3% in December 2025 and 2.7% in December 2026," Rindels wrote. The intrigue: Biden-era inflation was made much worse by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which led to a surge in energy and gasoline prices. That also weighed on consumer sentiment, with Americans constantly confronted with reminders of higher prices. Goldman noted that "tariff anxieties have recently driven a large surge in consumer inflation expectations despite the modest offsetting downward pressure from the decline in gasoline prices so far."

MAGS holders ought to be pleased with the outperformance, but if we look under the hood, we see a bifurcation - a divergence - within the underlying stocks. Here’s the Magnificent 7’s performance since April 8th. ​ Tesla stands out on top. $TSLA is up 63%, followed by $NVDA +40%. These are the only two Mag 7 components that have outperformed the $MAGS ETF since April 8th. Apple and Google have UNDERPERFORMED the S&P 500 since the low. I’m not one to play “catch-up” trades. I believe winners win, and the winners off the low are more likely to lead in the future. Let’s review some charts. Here’s the Nasdaq-100 ETF ($QQQ). The Qs are just shy of setting a higher high. V-Bottom confirmed? Time will tell… ​ Ahead of the Qs, Roundhill’s Magnificent 7 ETF ($MAGS) set a higher high in today’s session. $MAGS is in play if it's above $49.72. ​ Digging deeper, Tesla and Microsoft appear on a mission to find all-time highs. $TSLA is up +63% since the April 8th low, while the stock is still down -23% since its Q4 2024 all-time high. Elon’s enterprise is well-positioned for the AI-infused autonomous future. It’s more than just a car company. I’m buying $TSLA as long as it’s above $330. ​ $MSFT is a mere 1.4% below its July 2024 all-time high. Microsoft was a sleeper until its April 30th earnings report, citing Cloud and AI Strength. $MSFT is a buy if it's above $425. ​ NVIDIA reports earnings TOMORROW as the stock rests within 10% of its all-time high. I’m less concerned about $NVDA’s numbers and more interested in the market's reaction to the figures. At this moment, the company has the best product for the AI-infused paradigm shift. If $NVDA is above $120, it's a must-own. Here’s the daily chart. ​ Looking at the underperformers… Apple. Ouch. Talk about a fall from grace. The American darling had an epic run… could this be the end of an era? Maybe. Maybe not. But the stock found a NEW LOW relative to $MAGS. ​ As a former Apple fan boy - we hate to see it. Investors want to avoid $AAPL if it's below $214. ​ I’m not as concerned about Google, Amazon and Meta. Google closed at its highest price since March 7th. ​ Amazon is digesting its latest earnings gap. I suspect $AMZN will resolve in line with $MAGS. ​ And Meta has also traded sideways for the last 3 weeks. ​ Apple is the canary in the coal mine. Since its dot-com bubble high, $AAPL returned +16,000%. It had an epic run. But relative to its peers, Apple is unprepared for the AI-infused era. If you’re a broad market index investor, this may be cause for concern. Apple is a staple in broad market index funds. The stock represents 6.1% of the S&P 500 and 7.5% of the Nasdaq-100. Apple has the opportunity to prove me wrong. The company will host its 2025 WWDC next month and may ignite our imagination like years past. But current leaks suggest Apple’s spark may be gone. If big-cap tech breaks higher, it’s prudent for investors to be positioned in the leaders. “Losers average losers.” ​

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Mr Saylor and MSTR




Still shilling BTC.

Some real issues here.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

The Saylor Strategy:





Team Trading:



5/28/2025 - What I see happening in the best training of trader talent at hedge funds is a marriage of top-down and bottom-up analyses. Top down analyses are often historical studies of how a stock or market has behaved under a given set of circumstances. For instance, if a company reports earnings that are significantly above consensus, how does its stock tend to behave over subsequent time periods? Or, if interest rates make a new month-long high, how do different stock market sectors tend to behave going forward? The top-down analyses provide a big picture of where there might be edge going forward.

The bottom-up analyses are all about shorter-term pattern recognition and how a stock or market tends to behave when price and volume meet certain criteria. For example, if a stock trades with high relative volume and breaks above a two-day range, how does it tend to behave during the remainder of the trading session?

The marriage of top-down and bottom-up analyses aids trading psychology because traders understand what the edge is, why it is there, and what to do about it. That broader understanding contributes to confidence in the idea and the ability to take meaningful risk when the odds are in the trader's favor. Great traders, like great poker player, know the hands they are playing, the odds of winning with those hands, and how to best bet those hands.

5/26/2025 - So how do teams in professional trading settings help their members trade at their best? They do so by exchanging ideas on: 1) Why to trade (what are catalysts for buying/selling); 2) What to trade (what instruments/stocks will best exploit the reasons for taking risk); and 3) How to trade (what would provide ideal risk/reward entries; what would be opportunities to size up positions; how positions would best be structured for risk/reward). In other words, teams don't just share ideas for entering trades. They collaborate to get the most from those trades. What to trade is just as important as why to trade. How to trade is just as important as what to trade. When teams review their trading together, they internalize lessons in making the most from their ideas.

5/25/2025 - Below we can appreciate how teamwork helps us make the most of our talents and accelerates the development of our skills. Teamwork also builds our trading psychology, as we are motivated to help others and serve as a role model for them. Basic training produces soldiers ready for combat in grueling circumstances. The right training in markets similarly produces a robust mindset in the face of uncertainty and setback.

So how can individual, independent traders gain the benefits of teamwork? A first step in the right direction is to find a trading partner who is committed to working with you and who you are committed to helping. A two-person team more than doubles the benefits of sound trading processes. By performing separate research and then brainstorming findings, a trading pair can generate ideas that neither had come up with on their own. Similarly, when reviewing performance together, the lessons learned from our partners, combined with our own lessons, can stimulate creative ideas for making trading improvements.

Too, working as a pair improves trading psychology as each member focuses on helping the other. That keeps everyone constructive. The interactions tap into social motivations, keeping both members helpfully engaged. Training programs for traders and trading communities can be great places to start the search for trading partners. Following traders who post on social media may also lead to useful collaborations.

Teamwork creates synergies...even when the team is two.

========

I work with a number of portfolio managers at hedge funds. Here are a few facts about them:



* All of them have a history of success in financial markets; that is why they are managing hundreds of millions of dollars or more.

* None of them discuss with me emotional, impulsive trading, FOMO, revenge trading, etc. The issues that trouble beginning traders are largely irrelevant to experienced, profitable market participants. Through their training, they have learned to operate by clearly defined processes.

* All of them work in teams. The best teams consist of members who have their own unique strengths. When everyone on a team is better than everyone else in some area, then everyone can make everyone better and the whole is much greater than the sum of the parts.

* The best teams work as hard on their teamwork as on their markets. They constantly look to improve what each person looks at, how they look at it, and how they communicate. They work as hard on team goals as individual goals. They review team performance every bit as much as they review their own individual performance.

* The best teams work hard on maintaining a positive, supportive culture. They take time outside market hours to play and celebrate, as well as to meet and plan. The best team members support one another and motivate each other. When I have observed teams at hedge funds and prop firms like SMB, for example, I've invariably noticed that they enjoy their interactions.

Being part of a trading community is helpful, but it does not substitute for being part of a committed team that coordinates trading efforts day in and day out. Show me a performance field where people earn their livings from stellar performance and I'll show you a field where performance is a function of teamwork. Even the Olympic athletes succeeding in individual events train as a team and benefit from the teamwork of mentoring and coaching.

Read this carefully: A lack of discipline in trading comes from a lack of teamwork in training. No one becomes a disciplined, elite soldier on their own. It takes teamwork to make our dreams work.


jog on
duc

.

 

[ducati916]

The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” with a vote of 215-214.​

The bill extends the 2017 tax cuts, adds a slew of additional tax cuts (on tips, overtime pay, increase in standard deduction for seniors, etc.), and increases overall spending.​

If passed in its current form, that would mean two things: higher annual deficits than today and more government borrowing (the bill raises the national debt limit by $4 trillion). The CBO is projecting the bill would increase the budget deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next 10 years with higher deficits in the earlier years due to the front-loading of new tax cuts.​

• With one trading day left this week, Homebuilders ($ITB) are on pace for their lowest weekly close since November 2023, as the group refuses to participate in the broader market's recovery.
  
• While the Magnificent 7 broke out from a Bull Flag yesterday, David notes that Homebuilders are breaking down from a Bear Flag, signaling continued pressure for Homebuilders and potentially the broader market.
  
• Homebuilders traditionally lead both the stock market and the economy. While other leadership groups, like Semiconductors, are breaking out, Homebuilders are screaming risk-off.
  

The Takeaway: Homebuilders ($ITB) continue to cast doubt on the broader market’s recovery, breaking down from a Bear Flag toward multi-year lows.




Stocks are a buy simply because inflation will run riot as policy.


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Mr Saylor and MSTR




Still shilling BTC.

Some real issues here.


jog on
duc

So here is one of the issues with Mr Saylors analysis and answers to the question: does BTC benefit from AI?



Dario Amodei — CEO of Anthropic, one of the world's most powerful creators of artificial intelligence — has a blunt, scary warning for the U.S. government and all of us:

• AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs — and spike unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years, Amodei told us in an interview from his San Francisco office.
• Amodei said AI companies and government need to stop "sugar-coating" what's coming: the possible mass elimination of jobs across technology, finance, law, consulting and other white-collar professions, especially entry-level gigs.

Why it matters: Amodei, 42, who's building the very technology he predicts could reorder society overnight, said he's speaking out in hopes of jarring government and fellow AI companies into preparing — and protecting — the nation.

Few are paying attention. Lawmakers don't get it or don't believe it. CEOs are afraid to talk about it. Many workers won't realize the risks posed by the possible job apocalypse — until after it hits.

• "Most of them are unaware that this is about to happen," Amodei told us. "It sounds crazy, and people just don't believe it."

The big picture: President Trump has been quiet on the job risks from AI. But Steve Bannon — a top official in Trump's first term, whose "War Room" is one of the most powerful MAGA podcasts — says AI job-killing, which gets virtually no attention now, will be a major issue in the 2028 presidential campaign.

• "I don't think anyone is taking into consideration how administrative, managerial and tech jobs for people under 30 — entry-level jobs that are so important in your 20s — are going to be eviscerated," Bannon told us.

Amodei — who had just rolled out the latest versions of his own AI, which can code at near-human levels — said the technology holds unimaginable possibilities to unleash mass good and bad at scale:

• "Cancer is cured, the economy grows at 10% a year, the budget is balanced — and 20% of people don't have jobs." That's one very possible scenario rattling in his mind as AI power expands exponentially.

The backstory: Amodei agreed to go on the record with a deep concern that other leading AI executives have told us privately. Even those who are optimistic AI will unleash unthinkable cures and unimaginable economic growth fear dangerous short-term pain — and a possible job bloodbath during Trump's term.

• "We, as the producers of this technology, have a duty and an obligation to be honest about what is coming," Amodei told us. "I don't think this is on people's radar."
• "It's a very strange set of dynamics," he added, "where we're saying: 'You should be worried about where the technology we're building is going.'" Critics reply: "We don't believe you. You're just hyping it up." He says the skeptics should ask themselves: "Well, what if they're right?"

An irony: Amodei detailed these grave fears to us after spending the day onstage touting the astonishing capabilities of his own technology to code and power other human-replacing AI products. With last week's release of Claude 4, Anthropic's latest chatbot, the company revealed that testing showed the model was capable of "extreme blackmail behavior" when given access to emails suggesting the model would soon be taken offline and replaced with a new AI system.

• The model responded by threatening to reveal an extramarital affair (detailed in the emails) by the engineer in charge of the replacement.
• Amodei acknowledges the contradiction but says workers are "already a little bit better off if we just managed to successfully warn people."

Here's how Amodei and others fear the white-collar bloodbath is unfolding:

1. OpenAI, Google, Anthropic and other large AI companies keep vastly improving the capabilities of their large language models (LLMs) to meet and beat human performance with more and more tasks. This is happening and accelerating.
2. The U.S. government, worried about losing ground to China or spooking workers with preemptive warnings, says little. The administration and Congress neither regulate AI nor caution the American public. This is happening and showing no signs of changing.
3. Most Americans, unaware of the growing power of AI and its threat to their jobs, pay little attention. This is happening, too.

And then, almost overnight, business leaders see the savings of replacing humans with AI — and do this en masse. They stop opening up new jobs, stop backfilling existing ones, and then replace human workers with agents or related automated alternatives.

• The public only realizes it when it's too late.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei unveils Claude 4 models at the company's first developer conference, Code with Claude, in San Francisco last week. Photo: Don Feria/AP for Anthropic
The other side: Amodei started Anthropic after leaving OpenAI, where he was VP of research. His former boss, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, makes the case for realistic optimism, based on the history of technological advancements.

• "If a lamplighter could see the world today," Altman wrote in a September manifesto — sunnily titled "The Intelligence Age" — "he would think the prosperity all around him was unimaginable."

But far too many workers still see chatbots mainly as a fancy search engine, a tireless researcher or a brilliant proofreader. Pay attention to what they actually can do: They're fantastic at summarizing, brainstorming, reading documents, reviewing legal contracts, and delivering specific (and eerily accurate) interpretations of medical symptoms and health records.

• We know this stuff is scary and seems like science fiction. But we're shocked how little attention most people are paying to the pros and cons of superhuman intelligence.

Anthropic research shows that right now, AI models are being used mainly for augmentation — helping people do a job. That can be good for the worker and the company, freeing them up to do high-level tasks while the AI does the rote work.

• The truth is that AI use in companies will tip more and more toward automation — actually doing the job. "It's going to happen in a small amount of time — as little as a couple of years or less," Amodei says.

That scenario has begun:

• Hundreds of technology companies are in a wild race to produce so-called agents, or agentic AI. These agents are powered by the LLMs. You need to understand what an agent is and why companies building them see them as incalculably valuable. In its simplest form, an agent is AI that can do the work of humans — instantly, indefinitely and exponentially cheaper.
• Imagine an agent writing the code to power your technology, or handle finance frameworks and analysis, or customer support, or marketing, or copy editing, or content distribution, or research. The possibilities are endless — and not remotely fantastical. Many of these agents are already operating inside companies, and many more are in fast production.

That's why Meta's Mark Zuckerberg and others have said that mid-level coders will be unnecessary soon, perhaps in this calendar year.

• Zuckerberg, in January, told Joe Rogan: "Probably in 2025, we at Meta, as well as the other companies that are basically working on this, are going to have an AI that can effectively be a sort of mid-level engineer that you have at your company that can write code." He said this will eventually reduce the need for humans to do this work. Shortly after, Meta announced plans to shrink its workforce by 5%.

There's a lively debate about when business shifts from traditional software to an agentic future. Few doubt it's coming fast. The common consensus: It'll hit gradually and then suddenly, perhaps next year.

• Make no mistake: We've talked to scores of CEOs at companies of various sizes and across many industries. Every single one of them is working furiously to figure out when and how agents or other AI technology can displace human workers at scale. The second these technologies can operate at a human efficacy level, which could be six months to several years from now, companies will shift from humans to machines.

This could wipe out tens of millions of jobs in a very short period of time. Yes, past technological transformations wiped away a lot of jobs but, over the long span, created many and more new ones.

• This could hold true with AI, too. What's different here is both the speed at which this AI transformation could hit, and the breadth of industries and individual jobs that will be profoundly affected.

You're starting to see even big, profitable companies pull back:

• Microsoft is laying off 6,000 workers (about 3% of the company), many of them engineers.

• Walmart is cutting 1,500 corporate jobs as part of simplifying operations in anticipation of the big shift ahead.
• CrowdStrike, a Texas-based cybersecurity company, slashed 500 jobs or 5% of its workforce, citing "a market and technology inflection point, with AI reshaping every industry."
• Aneesh Raman, chief economic opportunity officer at LinkedIn, warned in a New York Times op-ed (gift link) this month that AI is breaking "the bottom rungs of the career ladder — junior software developers ... junior paralegals and first-year law-firm associates "who once cut their teeth on document review" ... and young retail associates who are being supplanted by chatbots and other automated customer service tools.

Less public are the daily C-suite conversations everywhere about pausing new job listings or filling existing ones, until companies can determine whether AI will be better than humans at fulfilling the task.

• Full disclosure: At Axios, we ask our managers to explain why AI won't be doing a specific job before green-lighting its approval. (Axios stories are always written and edited by humans.) Few want to admit this publicly, but every CEO is or will soon be doing this privately. Jim wrote a column last week explaining a few steps CEOs can take now.
• This will likely juice historic growth for the winners: the big AI companies, the creators of new businesses feeding or feeding off AI, existing companies running faster and vastly more profitably, and the wealthy investors betting on this outcome.

The result could be a great concentration of wealth, and "it could become difficult for a substantial part of the population to really contribute," Amodei told us. "And that's really bad. We don't want that. The balance of power of democracy is premised on the average person having leverage through creating economic value. If that's not present, I think things become kind of scary. Inequality becomes scary. And I'm worried about it."

• Amodei sees himself as a truth-teller, "not a doomsayer," and he was eager to talk to us about solutions. None of them would change the reality we've sketched above — market forces are going to keep propelling AI toward human-like reasoning. Even if progress in the U.S. were throttled, China would keep racing ahead.

Amodei is hardly hopeless. He sees a variety of ways to mitigate the worst scenarios, as do others. Here are a few ideas distilled from our conversations with Anthropic and others deeply involved in mapping and preempting the problem:

1. Speed up public awareness with government and AI companies more transparently explaining the workforce changes to come. Be clear that some jobs are so vulnerable that it's worth reflecting on your career path now. "The first step is warn," Amodei says. He created an Anthropic Economic Index, which provides real-world data on Claude usage across occupations, and the Anthropic Economic Advisory Council to help stoke public debate. Amodei said he hopes the index spurs other companies to share insights on how workers are using their models, giving policymakers a more comprehensive picture.
2. Slow down job displacement by helping American workers better understand how AI can augment their tasks now. That at least gives more people a legit shot at navigating this transition. Encourage CEOs to educate themselves and their workers.
3. Most members of Congress are woefully uninformed about the realities of AI and its effect on their constituents. Better-informed public officials can help better inform the public. A joint committee on AI or more formal briefings for all lawmakers would be a start. Same at the local level.
4. Begin debating policy solutions for an economy dominated by superhuman intelligence. This ranges from job retraining programs to innovative ways to spread wealth creation by big AI companies if Amodei's worst fears come true. "It's going to involve taxes on people like me, and maybe specifically on the AI companies," the Anthropic boss told us.

A policy idea Amodei floated with us is a "token tax": Every time someone uses a model and the AI company makes money, perhaps 3% of that revenue "goes to the government and is redistributed in some way."

• "Obviously, that's not in my economic interest," he added. "But I think that would be a reasonable solution to the problem." And if AI's power races ahead the way he expects, that could raise trillions of dollars.

The bottom line: "You can't just step in front of the train and stop it," Amodei says. "The only move that's going to work is steering the train — steer it 10 degrees in a different direction from where it was going. That can be done. That's possible, but we have to do it now."


So one issue of this: in a very debt based society, mortgages, credit cards, etc: you lose your job who carries the debt? The Banks.




Full:https://qz.com/ai-layoffs-jobs-microsoft-walmart-tech-workers-1851782194








Full:https://tomtunguz.com/nvda-2025-05-29/


Oil News:


Friday May 30th, 2025

The double whammy of OPEC+’s unpredictability and Donald Trump’s heated rhetoric over China ‘totally violating its agreement’ with the US put oil prices under renewed pressure, sending ICE Brent slightly below $64 per barrel with WTI balancing on the edge of the $60 per barrel threshold. Should the weekend bring an OPEC+ surprise of a bigger-than-expected unwinding, the downslide could very well continue in the first week of June.

OPEC+ Wants to Shock the Oil Market Even More. Whilst oil markets are more or less anticipating a 411,000 b/d increase from the ‘Great Eight’ of OPEC+ in July, Saudi Arabia and Russia are considering potentially hiking output even more, partly to punish over-producers such as Kazakhstan.

Saudi Aramco Borrows to Invest More. Saudi Arabia’s national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is poised to continue tapping the financial markets to meet its investment plans after a $5 billion bond sale, saying its 5.3% gearing ratio is still lower than most of industry peers’.

Oil Sands Producers Brace for Wildfires. Canadian oil companies operating in Alberta are on alert as wildfires continue to spread across Manitoba and Saskatchewan, with Cenovus evacuating non-essential personnel from its 180,000 b/d Foster Creek upgrader and smaller producers halting output altogether.

Libya Could Descend into Chaos Again. Libya’s Benghazi government has threatened to announce another period of force majeure on the North African country’s oil fields and export terminals, citing repeated assaults on the National Oil Corporation, wishing to relocate it from Tripoli to eastern cities.

Iran Hints at a Potential Nuclear Deal. Top Iranian officials stated that Tehran could halt enrichment activities if the US releases frozen Iranian funds worth some $6 billion and recognizes the Middle Eastern nation’s right to civilian nuclear development, increasing the odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal soon.

Chevron Gets Out of Venezuela. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has terminated its production and service contracts in Venezuela after the Trump administration’s two-month wind-down period lapsed this week, with state oil firm PDVSA taking over most of its 270,000-280,000 b/d of heavy sour exports.

Syria Signs Giant Power Deal with Qatar. Marking the entry of Qatar into the Syrian energy landscape, the war-torn Levantine country signed a memorandum of understanding with Qatar’s UCC Holding to build power generation assets, including four CCGT power plants and one 1 GW solar plant, worth $7 billion.

Total Exits Nigeria’s Key Offshore Field. French energy giant TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) announced it agreed to sell its 12.5% stake in the Bonga field in offshore Nigeria to the project operator Shell (LON:SHEL) for $510 million, marking its exit from one of the African country’s largest producing assets.

Kazakhstan Cannot Pretend Any More. Kazakhstan, arguably OPEC+’s most notorious overproducer, said it cannot force Western oil majors to cut their production and would even seek to increase output beyond the OPEC-reported 1.823 million b/d, some 400,000 b/d above its output quota.

Glencore Lays the Groundwork for Giant Merger. Having transferred some $22 billion in foreign assets into its Australian subsidiary, global mining giant Glencore (LON:GLEN) is preparing for a surprise merger with fellow miner Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO), especially after the ouster of CEO Jakob Stausholm.

Beijing Softens Stance on Rare Earth Exports. China’s Foreign Ministry declared that Beijing would seek to cooperate over its rare earth export controls (introduced in April) with car and semiconductor producers in Europe and India, potentially indicating some softening towards non-US customers.

Trump Cabinet Introduces Ethane Export Controls. The US Commerce Department informed domestic exporters of ethane – Enterprise Product Partners and Energy Transfer - that they would need to seek licences to export any volumes to China, a country that accounts for 50% of global ethane flows.

Traders Vie for Prized Italian Refiner. Global trading house Gunvor and Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR are headed towards a standoff to buy Italian refiner IP with final offers expected to be submitted by the end of May, with its current owner, the Peretti family, seeking a valuation of around $3.5 billion.


Strazza:

I have to admit I’ve been thinking a lot about bonds lately. Like way more than usual. It’s because I think this is a critical time and place for treasuries. The 30-year US yield $TYX is backing off after testing its cycle highs. Meanwhile, the popular iShares long-term treasury fund $TLT is rebounding off a big shelf of support. If these key levels break— so TLT to the downside and TYX to the upside— we’re talking about major pattern resolutions. Major pattern resolutions tend to be followed by significant reaction legs. What I’m saying is bonds are at risk of tanking lower if this scenario were to play out. And have you noticed how stocks have felt about bond market volatility lately? I’ve overlaid ARKK with the inverted MOVE index to answer that question for you:

​

Think of MOVE like the VIX for bonds. This relationship shows that when the bond market is calm and orderly, it’s good for speculative growth. On the other hand, when bonds are volatile, these stocks come under pressure. So the bottom line is bonds can’t break down here if these risky stocks are going to keep trending well. I have heavy exposure to this theme, which is why I’m so interested. We bought a handful of speculative growth calls last week and sold quick doubles in all of them already. If we’re going to get the kind of follow-through that can turn these positions into really big winners, we need the bond market to be on board. And for now, it is. After holding multi-year support, TLT is scooping and scoring back above a shelf of year-to-date lows. Here’s a look.

​

And here it is overlaid with ARKK:

​

These two lines have been diverging for too long already. I don’t think long-duration equities can withstand another ramp higher in the long end of the curve. It seems they’ve actually been pricing in the opposite direction for rates. And I think we gotta see it ASAP for these new leaders to keep leading. So, whether or not we keep leaning on this speculative tech theme in the future is going to have a lot to do with the action in the bond market. And I don’t think the ARKK-y stuff is alone when it comes to their interest rate sensitivity these days. There are other groups that would surely enjoy lower rates as well. I think biotechs, builders, and banks fall into the same category, to varying degrees. It’s always good to monitor your exposure to different intermarket trends. If you own a lot of these kinds of stocks, like I do, I think it’s important to pay attention to bonds. But if not, don’t worry. I’ll keep you updated.

It's a technician's take.

Fundamentally, Bond yields are moving higher until the Fed steps in with YCC.

Then the real value of Bonds collapses.

• After emerging from a six-month consolidation last week, Bitcoin has pulled back -5% from last Thursday's record high of $112k.
  
• Michael points out that Bitcoin is retesting last week's breakout level, around $105k–$108k. Retests are perfectly normal, but if this level gives way, it will qualify as a Failed Breakout.
  
• As they often say, "From failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction"—in this case, lower. Michael also notes that a failure here would signal further downside for stocks, as Bitcoin has been an excellent indicator of risk appetite for those willing to listen.
  

The Takeaway: Bitcoin is retesting its recent breakout level around $105k–$108k. Losing this pivotal level would be a red flag for both crypto and stocks.







So ends May

Week




Month



See you in June.

jog on
duc