November DDD

[ducati916]

So this is the second MSTR. All they are doing is issuing debt and buying BTC. AKA a 'pureplay'.

How many more useless companies adopt the BTC strategy? Is this the ultimate bootstrap operation on a limited asset? Most Wall St. firms that flood the market with copycat ideas, for example Covered Call strategies or x3 leveraged ETF's etc, have no limit to their creation.

Interesting.





jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Oil News:

Friday, November 22nd, 2024

Brent futures have been trading within a narrow bandwidth of $73-74 per barrel, but the return of geopolitical risk has pushed oil prices higher - recouping most of November’s losses to date. Whilst Russia’s launch of hypersonic missiles into Ukraine is keeping the markets busy for now, the contours of an OPEC+ meeting taking place next weekend are looming large for oil. Expect a lot of OPEC+ policy speculation in the coming week.

IAEA Pushes for New Iran Nuclear Talks. The International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution urging Iran to improve cooperation with the global nuclear community and requesting a comprehensive assessment of its arsenal, with Tehran defying to comply but suggesting capping its stock of uranium.

COP29 Starts to Disintegrate Again. The latest COP29 draft on climate finance commitments has been lambasted for lacking hard figures and providing no pathway for bridging the funding gap between developed and developing countries, with all participating countries rejecting the draft this week.

ExxonMobil Gives Up on Guyana Ambition. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and its project partners have pulled out of negotiations with Guyana over potential exploration terms in the country’s most recent licensing bid for shallow-water blocks, relinquishing the right to operate block S8.

US Targets Russia’s Top Energy Bank. The US Treasury Department tightened energy sanctions on Russia after it imposed new sanctions on Gazprombank, the largest facilitator of energy payments for Russian fossil fuels as it is used by Gazprom to receive natural gas payments for deliveries to Europe.

Saudi Aramco Focuses on Dividend Growth. The largest oil company in the world, Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222), is seeking to take on more debt for capital, sticking to ambitious dividend payments to the state, as it continues to contain the country’s fiscal benefit by means of its own debt.

Mexico to Scrap Independent Regulators. The Mexican Congress has voted in favor of a bill that would eliminate seven of the 11 independent regulators in Mexico, seeing the country’s National Hydrocarbons Commission, as well as the CRE regulatory commission, absorbed by the Energy Ministry.

Iraq Clamps Down on Fuel Smuggling to Iran. The Iraqi government has claimed to be clamping down on the illegal smuggling of crude oil, bitumen, and other products to Iran through the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, asking Tehran to block any delivery unless it is licensed by the state export firm Somo.

Activist Investors Target Japan’s Gas Firms. Activist investor Elliott Investment Management reported a 5.03% stake in one of Japan’s largest utility firms Tokyo Gas (TYO:9531), following similar moves with trading house Sumitomo, advocating to sell large amounts of real estate it owns for capital efficiency.

Despite Austria Row, Russia’s Pipeline Gas Keeps on Flowing. Gazprom’s pipeline flows to Europe via Ukraine have been stable this week despite the Russian firm’s contractual dispute with OMV and its subsequent halting of deliveries to the company, indicating others have stepped in to buy more gas.

Brazil Can’t Stop Distributing Dividends. Brazil’s state-controlled oil firm Petrobras (NYSEBR) approved the payout of $3.4 billion in extraordinary dividends to shareholders, all the while greenlighting its $111 billion investment plan for 2025-2029, of which 70% will be geared towards E&P.

Trump Eyes Rollback of Biden Standards. US President-elect Donald Trump will seek to weaken the Biden-era vehicle efficiency and tailpipe emission standards, whilst also considering the scrapping of a $7,500 tax credit for EV buyers introduced in 2022 as part of the IRA stimulus package.

Egypt Starts Talks on Long-Term LNG Imports. Egypt is reportedly negotiating potential long-term LNG supply deals with US and other foreign majors, preferring them over costlier spot deals, as domestic production of gas fell to a seven-year low in September on the back of lower Zohr output volumes.

China Reports Supergiant Gold Discovery. China’s state outlet Xinhua reported that the country discovered gold reserves worth $83 billion in central Hunan province, the equivalent of more than 300 tonnes of highest-grade ore, further boosting its standing as the world’s largest gold producer.

Treasury yield have moved higher while the Fed has lowered interest rates. This was not supped to happen. The question now is determining what is the fair value for Treasury yield out the curve. The usual method is to determine the real rate of interest which usually is about 2% plus some estimate of expected inflation which can be argued to be at level above 2%. So, if we use a real rate of 2% and an inflation rate of 2.5% we are at 4.5% as a good starting point; however, we need to add a term premium for the risk from holding these bonds out the curve. That number has been negative for an extended period but is now positive and rising. The current term premium is at the highest level in over a year; however, a longer history suggests that it can increase by a multiple of the current levels. One reason could be the lower liquidity in Treasuries, yet the recent fall is not seen in the term premium. Forecasting the term premium is now the Treasury yield forecast will card.















Musk: https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/elon-musk-trump-doge-silicon-valley-rcna180646



Full: https://sherwood.news/crypto/microstrategy-bitcoin-valuation-premium/

As I said yesterday, bootstrap operation. LOL.

So yesterday's spike to $540 +/- must have been 'short covering'. Today stabilised at +/- $430. But, that could well have been a short term sell signal.

Speculation and FOMO are running hot currently. Always difficult to navigate. From a risk and valuation (entire market) this is a sell. The problem of course is that stocks could easily trade much, much higher. You then agonise over your lost profits. Of course, even more dangerous is selling 'short' and having the market continue to explode higher.

The closer to the top we actually are, the faster will prices rise.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Oil News:

Friday, November 22nd, 2024

Brent futures have been trading within a narrow bandwidth of $73-74 per barrel, but the return of geopolitical risk has pushed oil prices higher - recouping most of November’s losses to date. Whilst Russia’s launch of hypersonic missiles into Ukraine is keeping the markets busy for now, the contours of an OPEC+ meeting taking place next weekend are looming large for oil. Expect a lot of OPEC+ policy speculation in the coming week.

IAEA Pushes for New Iran Nuclear Talks. The International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution urging Iran to improve cooperation with the global nuclear community and requesting a comprehensive assessment of its arsenal, with Tehran defying to comply but suggesting capping its stock of uranium.

COP29 Starts to Disintegrate Again. The latest COP29 draft on climate finance commitments has been lambasted for lacking hard figures and providing no pathway for bridging the funding gap between developed and developing countries, with all participating countries rejecting the draft this week.

ExxonMobil Gives Up on Guyana Ambition. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and its project partners have pulled out of negotiations with Guyana over potential exploration terms in the country’s most recent licensing bid for shallow-water blocks, relinquishing the right to operate block S8.

US Targets Russia’s Top Energy Bank. The US Treasury Department tightened energy sanctions on Russia after it imposed new sanctions on Gazprombank, the largest facilitator of energy payments for Russian fossil fuels as it is used by Gazprom to receive natural gas payments for deliveries to Europe.

Saudi Aramco Focuses on Dividend Growth. The largest oil company in the world, Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222), is seeking to take on more debt for capital, sticking to ambitious dividend payments to the state, as it continues to contain the country’s fiscal benefit by means of its own debt.

Mexico to Scrap Independent Regulators. The Mexican Congress has voted in favor of a bill that would eliminate seven of the 11 independent regulators in Mexico, seeing the country’s National Hydrocarbons Commission, as well as the CRE regulatory commission, absorbed by the Energy Ministry.

Iraq Clamps Down on Fuel Smuggling to Iran. The Iraqi government has claimed to be clamping down on the illegal smuggling of crude oil, bitumen, and other products to Iran through the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, asking Tehran to block any delivery unless it is licensed by the state export firm Somo.

Activist Investors Target Japan’s Gas Firms. Activist investor Elliott Investment Management reported a 5.03% stake in one of Japan’s largest utility firms Tokyo Gas (TYO:9531), following similar moves with trading house Sumitomo, advocating to sell large amounts of real estate it owns for capital efficiency.

Despite Austria Row, Russia’s Pipeline Gas Keeps on Flowing. Gazprom’s pipeline flows to Europe via Ukraine have been stable this week despite the Russian firm’s contractual dispute with OMV and its subsequent halting of deliveries to the company, indicating others have stepped in to buy more gas.

Brazil Can’t Stop Distributing Dividends. Brazil’s state-controlled oil firm Petrobras (NYSEBR) approved the payout of $3.4 billion in extraordinary dividends to shareholders, all the while greenlighting its $111 billion investment plan for 2025-2029, of which 70% will be geared towards E&P.

Trump Eyes Rollback of Biden Standards. US President-elect Donald Trump will seek to weaken the Biden-era vehicle efficiency and tailpipe emission standards, whilst also considering the scrapping of a $7,500 tax credit for EV buyers introduced in 2022 as part of the IRA stimulus package.

Egypt Starts Talks on Long-Term LNG Imports. Egypt is reportedly negotiating potential long-term LNG supply deals with US and other foreign majors, preferring them over costlier spot deals, as domestic production of gas fell to a seven-year low in September on the back of lower Zohr output volumes.

China Reports Supergiant Gold Discovery. China’s state outlet Xinhua reported that the country discovered gold reserves worth $83 billion in central Hunan province, the equivalent of more than 300 tonnes of highest-grade ore, further boosting its standing as the world’s largest gold producer.

Treasury yield have moved higher while the Fed has lowered interest rates. This was not supped to happen. The question now is determining what is the fair value for Treasury yield out the curve. The usual method is to determine the real rate of interest which usually is about 2% plus some estimate of expected inflation which can be argued to be at level above 2%. So, if we use a real rate of 2% and an inflation rate of 2.5% we are at 4.5% as a good starting point; however, we need to add a term premium for the risk from holding these bonds out the curve. That number has been negative for an extended period but is now positive and rising. The current term premium is at the highest level in over a year; however, a longer history suggests that it can increase by a multiple of the current levels. One reason could be the lower liquidity in Treasuries, yet the recent fall is not seen in the term premium. Forecasting the term premium is now the Treasury yield forecast will card.

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Musk: https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/elon-musk-trump-doge-silicon-valley-rcna180646

View attachment 188364

Full: https://sherwood.news/crypto/microstrategy-bitcoin-valuation-premium/

As I said yesterday, bootstrap operation. LOL.

So yesterday's spike to $540 +/- must have been 'short covering'. Today stabilised at +/- $430. But, that could well have been a short term sell signal.

Speculation and FOMO are running hot currently. Always difficult to navigate. From a risk and valuation (entire market) this is a sell. The problem of course is that stocks could easily trade much, much higher. You then agonise over your lost profits. Of course, even more dangerous is selling 'short' and having the market continue to explode higher.

The closer to the top we actually are, the faster will prices rise.

jog on
duc

Mstr at least has some BTC, one ship I missed is xrp
Note: my phone suggesting "crap", is that AI?