Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

STO - Santos Limited


PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan
18 June 2004
STO has recovered strongly after some rough passages over the past, well above it's cyclical highs at $7. Gapped down heavily today on volume, looks like it is going lower to 8.50 (or 8) support. A lot of activity planned this year and the initial Jeruk assessments due by mid year too.

Any holders? Any views? I think STO has gotten ahead of itself, good drilling news will keep it steady but it may fall closer to recent trend in short term.

Longterm chart is monthly, short term is daily.


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Re: STO Santos- Turnaround year?

Saw in the FinReview that Santos has announced a downgrade to oil reserves in its Mutineer and Exeter fields off WA, expecting recoverable reserves of 61 million barrels rather than 101 million (a big difference). Apparently STO had been relying on those reserves to drive growth, probably explains the dramatic fall in the sp. BUT, apparently they'll bring forward production so that is supposed to help balance out the bad news.

Let's see where the sp finds support.
STO (Santos)

With 2006 Investment per last week ASX Announcement, and at its current price very nicely placed, hey all other Oil companies doubled in value in last 12 months, (compared to big brother Woodside who grabs glory). I'm thinking this stock could 'EXPLODE' in our faces..Hey Ive got none and Ive just talked myself into buying them. What attracts me is that secondary Drilling area (Woodside has primary) in Timor Sea.
The astrological signs tell me (and my gambler/trader instinct), just kidding, tell me this share may be how I can purchase my ticket to the moon on Richard Branson's Rocket Express!
Hell, Im having a go YO HO HO!
Geez after reading this youll sell yours cheap to me cause yu think Im crakd!
Good Luck Traders.
STO in pre open

Anyone know why STO is still in pre-open at 10.30AM?

I cant find any announcement's requesting it or the likes?

Can someone take a look at a recent chart of STO for me and tell me if it is a double bottom (is there such a thing?).

Was looking at chart tonite and noticed a W, am I right in taking that as a double bottom and if so am I right in thinking that would be a bullish sign?

Don't know where all Santos' little holders are coming from - the last 10 trades turned over a total of 12000 shares and dropped the price a couple of cents
Santos may be a good short at the moment with all that mud flowing over all those houses and polluting that river in Indonesia....surprised it's still holding its ground but a small head and shoulders makes it a bit of an attractive short....only the price of oil rising will give it any stability.....pretty sure it was STO that caused all this anyway.

Just convinced myself that it's a short....gone 1500 cfd's for a look.
Fell 1.88% today......happy with that considering they are announcing oil plays they have found......they wiil try to keep the price from falling too much but it is still in the poo.....and excellent short for a few more days yet me thinks...the Indo mud is unstoppable......feel sorry for the residents and the environment...but it'll make me a Quid or two.....that's life!
Re: opinions please

STO is on track to achieve its FY06 production guidance of 60 to 61mmboe. Despite this, we had assumed a higher relative contribution from liquids in 3Q06. This results in a lower than expected average achieved price overall and our FY06 earnings forecast declines 5% to 134.8cps. Our FY07 forecast is little changed, nor our $12.65ps valuation. Long term assumptions remain US$60/bbl oil, A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.76 and a 10% discount rate. Substituting US$50/bbl oil decreases our valuation 23% to $9.95.

Our Buy recommendation is retained and reflects an expectation of a long run annual return of 13%, above the 10% minimum required for a positive bias. Key risks remain commodity prices, cost pressures and comparatively short reserve life. The previously discussed Banjar Panji mud flow in Indonesia may negatively impact to an extent. Potential is for aggressive exploration strategies, in particular LNG targets in the Timor/Bonaparte region, to deliver a much needed cornerstone replacement asset for the mature Cooper Basin. Until they do STO will remain the poor cousin of Woodside.
Re: opinions please

Well i'd like to have my 2 RMB worth here. From a technical point of view i think the weekly chart shows it could move into a period of consolidation. A break of the old support could be a bullish sign to moves higher.

Anyone else?


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Re: opinions please

I know Pacer is shorting Santos. and has made a bit doing this.

My tip : wait... no hurry to get in at all...
Re: opinions please

Realist said:
I know Pacer is shorting Santos. and has made a bit doing this.

My tip : wait... no hurry to get in at all...

but at what price do you think will make STO an attractive investment ?

simply an opinion
Just thought I'd let you all know I bailed 2 days later, for a small profit (2 cases of bourbon lol), after reading further that the dammage will mostly be covered by insurance, but still puts a bit of a hold up on that project and the resources used in the cleanup/repair job, (if they can repair it, personaly I'm putting money down on it continuing to flow for years...a write off), could have been used elsewhere, and Santos (and partners) will have to foot the bill till insurers pay out (If they are found to be at fault)...liability will be contested by the insurer I suppose.

Was a small play and I reverse my position or bail resonably regularly depending on several factors....this time it was a slow response in SP and to jump on KZL and ZFX....and we all know why I did that!!!!.....If anything this looks like a riser to me but is too unpredictable at the moment.....and I'm more interested in Zinc at the moment.

Sorry I took so long to look back on this for comment....good luck all.
STO has got more problems and is down 1,5% on news of an incident that killed some workers on a platform and has shut it down....I've gone short 1000 for a look again....they just don't seem to be able to put a foot right lately.

If it makes the ABC news I react...and that's twice within 2 months it's stuffed up....and oil is down from it's high too....
STO down 4% today....easy money....hehe.....

Now to decide whether to get out with the loot today or wait for more gains on the short side.
Whoops. I was going to short this, and then slept in, haha.

How much have you made off it so far Pacer?
STO is rooted!'s just a shame I make money on the backs of others misfortunes.......RIP the guys that lost their lives here......:(
hi holders of STO. Recieved a ML report this morning, thought I'd share this snippet.

Jeruk uncommercial at 50mmbbl

Santos has announced that the Jeruk oil discovery (STO 40.5%) is likely to be
less than 50mmbbl so with the commercial threshold at around 70mmbbl, we
believe that the field will now not progress to development. Previous Santos
guidance has been that the field contained “less than 170mmbbl”.

Given the lack of near-term catalysts, we are lowering our Santos
recommendation to Neutral. With Jeruk no longer a growth contributor we view
the Cooper oil program and appraisal of gas resources to expand Darwin LNG as
key. Whilst we are satisfied that the financial implications of the Banjar Panji
mudflow and subsequent pipeline incident are limited, we believe negative
sentiment may overhang the stock in the near term.
Lastly, with Santos being the best performing Australian E&P stock over the prior
six months (in a falling oil price environment) it may mark time as investors reweight
into the laggards.
We do not believe the stock is a Sell at this stage because of its near term
attractive multiples compared to its peers, Cooper Oil optimisation upside and
exploration activity offshore Northern Australia.