Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

WHC - Whitehaven Coal

From Market Matters.
'The match out' after market close today:
  • Coal Stocks rallied after coal producer Anglo American suspended operations at its Grosvenor plant in Queensland due to a fire, saying it will take several months to come back online.
  • Coronado (CRN) +8.86% the major beneficiary given Anglo’s issues relate to Met Coal assets while Whitehaven (WHC) +6.27% and New Hope (NHC) +4.51% also rallied.
 
'Market Matters' today. They also like New Hope (NHC) as a "yield play".

Whitehaven Coal (WHC) $8.13
Following the $US3.2bn purchase of BHP’s Blackwater and Daunia coal mines, WHC has strategically pivoted primarily to a coking/met coal producer, which will account for ~70% of its revenue, spread across NSW and QLD. Given supply constraints and a strong demand outlook driven by India, we are increasingly bullish on the met coal outlook. We believe the good times will return as WHC pays down debt and benefits from increased global energy demand – as we keep saying, remember the power requirement of AI. We have been bullish on WHC throughout 2024, and recently, we’ve been looking for the miner to make fresh 12-month highs; this time, our “Gut Feel” feels increasingly on point.
 
From 'Market Matters' weekend Q&A
Comment has more general relevance but I haven't found a more apposite thread:

"At MM, we haven’t hidden our view that these two sectors (energy and materials) are set to outperform through FY25. However, we’re very conscious that one week doesn’t change a trend—the previously high-flying tech and utilities sectors were the market’s worst-performing sectors last week.

Winners:
Whitehaven Coal (WHC) +17.3%, Magellan (MFG) +12.8%, Mineral Res. (MIN) +7.9%, IGO Ltd (IGO) +5%, South32 (S32) +4.4%, Paladin +4.3%, Sandfire (SFR) +4%, BHP Group (BHP) +4%, Evolution Mining (EVN) +4%, and Woodside (WDS) +3.7%.

Losers:
Pro Medicus (PME) -8.6%, NIB (NHF) -5%, Seek (SEK) -5%, Lovisa (LOV) -4.8%, IDP Education (IEL) -4.6%, CAR Group (CAR) -3.8%, Suncorp (SUN) -3.5%, Wisetech (WTC) -3.1%, Cochlear (COH) -3%, and Pilbara (PLS) -2.3%."
 
From 'Market Matters' weekend Q&A
Comment has more general relevance but I haven't found a more apposite thread:

"At MM, we haven’t hidden our view that these two sectors (energy and materials) are set to outperform through FY25. However, we’re very conscious that one week doesn’t change a trend—the previously high-flying tech and utilities sectors were the market’s worst-performing sectors last week.

Winners:
Whitehaven Coal (WHC) +17.3%, Magellan (MFG) +12.8%, Mineral Res. (MIN) +7.9%, IGO Ltd (IGO) +5%, South32 (S32) +4.4%, Paladin +4.3%, Sandfire (SFR) +4%, BHP Group (BHP) +4%, Evolution Mining (EVN) +4%, and Woodside (WDS) +3.7%.

Losers:
Pro Medicus (PME) -8.6%, NIB (NHF) -5%, Seek (SEK) -5%, Lovisa (LOV) -4.8%, IDP Education (IEL) -4.6%, CAR Group (CAR) -3.8%, Suncorp (SUN) -3.5%, Wisetech (WTC) -3.1%, Cochlear (COH) -3%, and Pilbara (PLS) -2.3%."
it will be interesting to see how WHC integrates those coal mines it bought off BHP , and compare it to WDS ( who bought a petroleum arm off BHP )

interesting times ahead i suspect
 
Some discussion of coal stocks here including some Macquarie and Morgan Stanley comments. Particularly WHC at 17.20 where MS goes shock and awe with one scenario of coal prices supported by Indian infrastructural demand that sees WHC out of debt by end FY25 and with $3.8Bn cash by end FY26, all while holding divs constant, which would make the shares then worth $15.30!

Held
Holding

 
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