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That Bolt article was a bit thin and didn't seem to show any detailed reasoning.

Federal Labor will make something of the Vic result and push it on to the federal Coalition.

Federal Coalition will say it is a Victorian state issue.

State Labor will be a bit split. They will claim better campaigning. Use the common community issues like health, education etc. to try and bend federal Coalition as they will be paying for part of it. I expect state Labor will also make a little of Abbott (from what I heard Labor used Abbott's image to scare people) to further push the feed for the federal govt to help Victoria more on the common community issues to save the federal seats.

State Liberal have had some individuals mention the federal issues as having an impact. They will be pulled in line as senior internal figures will not have it.

While state and federal issues often have clear distinction there is plenty of overlap and it is naive to dismiss any role federal governments and parties have on state politics. Major infrastructure and major community services have federal co-funding.