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So in preparation for next week:

Last week's sectors:

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All sectors were downgraded (except Utilities which stays the same a t +2).

Energy will be a battleground with Biden talking about releasing (what's left of) the SPR. Last time this was done oil declined, see what happens this time.

A bounce is definitely on the cards for 2 reasons:

(i)

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Just a bit oversold; and

(ii) If you go back to 2006, you will see that when stocks trade below their 50 day MA that this situation only holds for about 2 weeks to 3 months, UNLESS

It is the start of a recession.

While I am definitely in the 'recession is coming camp' or rather, we are in a recession, just that no-one actually realises it yet, that is still not a mainstream view. The mainstream view is that the economy is strong.

So for the moment, a bounce back towards/above the 50 day MA is on the cards.

If it is a recession, then that takes 1yr+ to return us to living above the 50 day MA.

Next week's events:

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jog on

duc