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Full:https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-08-14/insiders-other-trades-are-just-too-profitable?srnd=opinion

For more than thirty years, one of the most prevalent strategies for insider trading has gone undetected and unaddressed. This Article uncovers the techniques by which executives and directors sell overvalued stock worth more than $100 billion per year, shifting losses to ordinary investors. The basic idea is that insiders conceal their suspicious trades by publicly reporting them (as they are required to do) in ways that confuse or discourage investigators. We develop a taxonomy of concealment strategies, complete with suggestive examples. We then empirically test our taxonomy using a database of essentially all stock trades since 1992. We find that insiders who trade using the subterfuges we describe outperform the market by up to 20% on average. Worse yet, we find evidence that this simple subterfuge works. Essentially no one has ever been prosecuted for undertaking one of these suspicious trades. Nor do journalists or scholars seem to appreciate them. Accordingly, we call for scholars and prosecutors to cast a wider net in their studies and market surveillance, then discuss implications for the design of insider-trading reporting requirements and related legal rules.

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We are starting to see UST vol. increase again with a weak USD. The USD can't be too hot or too cold, it has to be just right.

Turbulence in either market now (Bonds/Stocks) creates turbulence in the other market. Once, they offset each other (the 60/40 portfolio) now they just amplify each other. If you want balance you need gold.

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Full: https://mishtalk.com/economics/bls-revises-jobs-down-by-818000-the-most-ever-about-68000-per-month/

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Full: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/surge-derivative-bets-leaves-bitcoin-ripe-short-squeeze-etf-inflows-accelerate

This is essentially how they have controlled gold, silver, etc through the years. You need a paper market to control the physical. The physical can overwhelm the paper, but you need big players in the room to do so.

Which leads me to:

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Probably the most leveraged ETF (LOL) for BTC out there.

Thinking about a position.

While even noted Goldman Sachs skeptic Scott Rubner was recently forced to admit that it's hard to be bearish this summer vacation season, it's worth keeping an eye on the Cboe Volatility Index as investors await not only a key Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but a season-capping earnings report from de facto market bellwether Nvidia. With stocks clinging to slim gains at midday, the VIX is up more than 7%, suggesting that some of us are paper-handing it right into this afternoon's Fed minutes.

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U.S. stocks today are modestly higher, with the S&P 500 posting a 1-month high, the Dow Jones Industrials posting a 2-1/2 week high, and the Nasdaq-100 posting a 4-week high. Positive corporate news is lifting stocks today, along with M&A activity. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised U.S. payrolls down by -818,000 for the year through March, a bigger decline than expectations of -600,000 and the largest downward revision since 2009. The report was dovish for Fed policy, since it indicated a weaker labor market than was originally reported. The markets are awaiting the minutes of the July 30-31 FOMC meeting later this afternoon for clues on how close the Fed is to cutting interest rates.

So Powell speaks today.

Could be wild.

What exactly does the market want? Joe Blow would say rate cuts. Maybe. But maybe not. Rate cuts could drive a sell-off contra to most commentators expectations. Rate cuts signal weakness. The yield curve will un-invert. Historically not a great signal.

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I have been doing a little selling the last couple of days. Just lightening up a little. I'll sacrifice a little upside to protect the downside, you know, just-in-case.

jog on

duc