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Full:https://www.mrt.com/business/oil/article/chevron-2025-capital-spending-cuts-19964843.php

Then:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-11/us-mulls-new-russia-oil-sanctions-to-weaken-putin-ahead-of-trump?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

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More:https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/trump-scott-bessent-oil-production-e004de84

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Shale being critical to the US cannot be allowed (again) to cut production. Already there are issues.

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Yellen shifted to issue of T-Bills because there was NO DEMAND at the long end.

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Which is PIMCO: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-debt-reckoning-escalates-sharply-190954031.html?guccounter=1

This 'strategy' was always going to be inflationary. Why? Simple, the shorter the duration the more 'moneylike' the debt instrument becomes. Now we are seeing that increase in secular inflation as Powell says less rate cuts in 2025 because inflation is picking up.

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The thing is: the US NEEDS inflation and lots of it. Inflation is a default in slow motion. The liabilities are such that they can (now) never be paid. Default is the only option. Fast or slow is the choice. Fast = DEPRESSION. Slow = RECESSION.

Eventually (always) they will pick inflation.

Which is why us little chaps need to protect ourselves.

Stocks are simply to risky at these levels. FDI is so high that as foreign sellers cash out, the resulting fall will destroy confidence leading to a cascade of selling. Second, we have the issue of passive flows into stocks, reversing into passive flows out of stocks, which foreign selling could trigger.

BTC is so speculative and now leveraged via MSTR and copycats, that BTC will sell off so hard as to be useless.

Which leaves GOLD. The East supports the POG as it is now their de facto Reserve Asset.

I'm also reading more and more about the 'Bond Vigilantes'. As if they are some form of discipline to be imposed.

In 1941 FDR did not ask the Bond Vigilantes if he could take the US into a two theatre war. He just said we are at war with Germany and Japan, deal with it. Rates were capped. End of story. F*ck the Fed. Do as you are told.

Same will happen. We will have YCC to provide real negative returns until the debt is manageable. That could be 10yrs+ Which means high inflation in UST. Avoid like the plague.

jog on

duc