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I think calling a fall in gold below the current price is questionable. Sure, it might happen, but to claim it will "certainly" pull back to $2,800 is more than extreme (technically illegal too, not that I am remotely suggesting I agree with the law or that you've done anything especially 'wrong' beyond making a claim I disagree with). Heck, our friend who posted above you is calling for the rally to run another $500 before breaking a sweat.

If I had to guess I'd say we won't ever be going back below $3k, but I am far from certain. It's difficult to be sure, we have a lot of unknowns and forces pulling in different directions. $2,600 is certainly possible. Hey, $1,500 is 'possible', I suppose. For now it's in an extreme rally and hasn't shown any sign of pulling back. Of course whether it begins tomorrow and pulls back to $2,600 as you suggest is possible, or if it runs straight to $3,700 and pulls back to $3,300, we will see a pullback at some stage, but when a rally is still running strong and hasn't yet shown any sign of weakness, statistically, the trend is probably your friend.

I agree that gold is good. If it gets close to $4,000 in a hurry I'll probably be taking profit, largely on the same numerology which made me expect a rally once $3,000 was broken (all those superstitious idiots may be idiots, but there are plenty of them and $4,000 will be something they want to avoid).

Seems weird that you say we'll certainly see a pullback to $2,800 but you're holding at $3,130 and not planning to take profit unless it goes ballistic, but with your uncanny ability to strategically pick trading halt timings I won't argue with your methods.