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Yes, I agree the chart is of little "tactical" value as it only merely shows the bigger trend but will never predict the actual turning point. No indicators of any kind would have give you a tactical view with 100% certainly.

Strategic wise, I would say the chart is a lot of value depending on how one interprets it.

Based on that, I would say the market is at an irrational high point, not only from a sentiment aspect, but from any traditional fundamental indicators including PE ratio and even the normalised version. Technical indicators are obviously indicating an overbrought market, but not as overbrought yet as the last crash. This is, of course, a longer term look and each traders would have their own "system" for trading it.

Sorry if I had offended you by my claims of "thinking like a sheep". I will take that back. In a better way, you are a trend follower as you have suggested and I would agree with you that most people are that.

But going back to the concept of being a contrarian, does being among the "most" would make you rich in the longer term? If almost every financial planners/economists/friend investors say this is a bull market and everyone should ride it, do you smell something fishy around it?

I don't know why I have this sort of thinking. I tend to look the other way when everyone else is looking the same way. So when we contrarians try to debate our points with those who just can't understand our thinking, we tend to usually just stop and keep it to ourselves.

I guess I wouldn't comment too much on your investment/trading strategy. Like I said, everyone have their own ways.  I just take advantage of opportunities "differently".

Actually, based on my readings of his analysis, I do not think he is "bullish" on the state of the developed countries' economy. He is still clearly gloom and doom about the US, UK and Europe.

Everything I hear about China and India so far has been bullish in the "very" long term. (talking about decades here) The only diverging view was of the shorter term where the Chinese growth story wouldn't be one straight line up, and they will certainly face more trouble along the way that would certainly affect one's investment portfolio. (i.e. someone buys the China story and start leveraging like crazy on their stock market, etc.)

On the last part, I admit I have a confirmation bias on the whole doom and gloom thing. (more like I'm a deflationist who is still a bull in gold) But seriously, who doesn't have that bias here?  It's impossible.