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Obviously the Fed control the FFR which essentially follows the 2yr.

The Fed (unless they return to QE and effective YCC) do not control the long end.

Therefore 'currently' the curve is not manipulated.

Of course whether that remains the case is the question. With $7 Trillion rolling over this year, $2.5 Trillion in deficits and possibly a lot higher, I would say unlikely. The only way this does not blow-up is that the Fed returns to effective QE and devalues the USD via much higher inflation. Which means that the 10yr must come way back lower in yield.

[ATTACH=full]190630[/ATTACH]

ATM we are at 4.5%.

The consensus has the breaking point at 5%.

USD

[ATTACH=full]190631[/ATTACH]

My view is that the USD drives this process, not the 10yr. However, whichever it is, it needs to calm the f*ck down otherwise stocks are going to have a moment.

Trump with his tariffs, taxes, DOGE and BTC policies will not be driving a weakening of the USD, although he is aware (or his Treasury chap Bessent is) that the USD is an issue. Before all the above, debt needs to be restructured via a devaluation. The best way would be via gold, but, Trump is suggesting possibly via BTC, which is IMO driving the current price action in BTC (along with price insensitive buyers like MSTR).

jog on
duc

<blockquote data-quote="ducati916" data-source="post: 1311375" data-attributes="member: 2975">Obviously the Fed control the FFR which essentially follows the 2yr.The Fed (unless they return to QE and effective YCC) do not control the long end. Therefore &#039;currently&#039; the curve is not manipulated.Of course whether that remains the case is the question. With $7 Trillion rolling over this year, $2.5 Trillion in deficits and possibly a lot higher, I would say unlikely. The only way this does not blow-up is that the Fed returns to effective QE and devalues the USD via much higher inflation. Which means that the 10yr must come way back lower in yield.[ATTACH=full]190630[/ATTACH]ATM we are at 4.5%.The consensus has the breaking point at 5%.USD[ATTACH=full]190631[/ATTACH]My view is that the USD drives this process, not the 10yr. However, whichever it is, it needs to calm the f*ck down otherwise stocks are going to have a moment.Trump with his tariffs, taxes, DOGE and BTC policies will not be driving a weakening of the USD, although he is aware (or his Treasury chap Bessent is) that the USD is an issue. Before all the above, debt needs to be restructured via a devaluation. The best way would be via gold, but, Trump is suggesting possibly via BTC, which is IMO driving the current price action in BTC (along with price insensitive buyers like MSTR).jog onduc</blockquote>

[QUOTE="ducati916, post: 1311375, member: 2975"] Obviously the Fed control the FFR which essentially follows the 2yr. The Fed (unless they return to QE and effective YCC) do not control the long end. Therefore 'currently' the curve is not manipulated. Of course whether that remains the case is the question. With $7 Trillion rolling over this year, $2.5 Trillion in deficits and possibly a lot higher, I would say unlikely. The only way this does not blow-up is that the Fed returns to effective QE and devalues the USD via much higher inflation. Which means that the 10yr must come way back lower in yield. [ATTACH type="full"]190630[/ATTACH] ATM we are at 4.5%. The consensus has the breaking point at 5%. USD [ATTACH type="full"]190631[/ATTACH] My view is that the USD drives this process, not the 10yr. However, whichever it is, it needs to calm the f*ck down otherwise stocks are going to have a moment. Trump with his tariffs, taxes, DOGE and BTC policies will not be driving a weakening of the USD, although he is aware (or his Treasury chap Bessent is) that the USD is an issue. Before all the above, debt needs to be restructured via a devaluation. The best way would be via gold, but, Trump is suggesting possibly via BTC, which is IMO driving the current price action in BTC (along with price insensitive buyers like MSTR). jog on duc [/QUOTE]

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