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Somehow the 3:57 stayed in my memory, and I've been looking for a place to put the following. Just as information. But first, we're unlikely to have 40% overnight, either way. Too much self-balancing going on. If it did drop that amount it would be gave over. A total of 20% is regarded as a bear market, and the sum of days or weeks of price action. Even 10% in a day is rare.

Looking at the other point, we are generally in this as retail bunnies, small players upon whom is bestowed both advantage (nimble) and disadvantage (being overwhelmed). No matter what our conviction, the sheer weight of money is what moves things. As you, gg, and many others have observed, the closing at 4:10pm is where the volume is. I found this, in the AFR and a bit of a puff piece supplied by Barclays and rejigged to look like investigative substance, but this bit of the article does contain some information this is useful.

There’s alpha in ETFs' distortion of markets
A [quantitative] strategy involves taking advantage of the anomalies in the US equity market from the flood of money into passive investment vehicles including exchange-traded funds and index funds, which now exceed the funds managed in active equity funds.

In 2020, the assets under management in index funds hit $US5 trillion, which is about 16 per cent of the total US equity market capitalisation.

The analysis found that because passive funds have an incentive to minimise tracking errors, the rise in their importance has led to changes in the intraday trading volume dynamics.

This has led to a shift in the diurnal pattern of trading volumes, consistent with the tendency of passive funds to trade around the close to minimise tracking error. This has changed trading patterns and led to “intraday return predictability”.

Barclays says the predictability of late surges in trading activity caused by ETFs and index funds opens opportunities for “sizeable economic gains”....

.................. Whether that helps in trying to put your chips on the table or not, is moot. Volume is one of the few ways to beat the 'bots that operate during trading hours. Having a live screen, Iress or similar, would be beneficial in observing the two sides.

<blockquote data-quote="Dona Ferentes" data-source="post: 1184005" data-attributes="member: 66457">Somehow the 3:57 stayed in my memory, and I&#039;ve been looking for a place to put the following. Just as information. But first, we&#039;re unlikely to have 40% overnight, either way. Too much self-balancing going on. If it did drop that amount it would be gave over. A total of 20% is regarded as a bear market, and the sum of days or weeks of price action. Even 10% in a day is rare.Looking at the other point, we are generally in this as retail bunnies, small players upon whom is bestowed both advantage (nimble) and disadvantage (being overwhelmed). No matter what our conviction, the sheer weight of money is what moves things. As you, gg, and many others have observed, the closing at 4:10pm is where the volume is. I found this, in the AFR and a bit of a puff piece supplied by Barclays and rejigged to look like investigative substance, but this bit of the article does contain some information this is useful.<h2>There’s alpha in ETFs&#039; distortion of markets</h2>A [quantitative] strategy involves taking advantage of the anomalies in the US equity market from the flood of money into passive investment vehicles including exchange-traded funds and index funds, which now exceed the funds managed in active equity funds.In 2020, the assets under management in index funds hit $US5 trillion, which is about 16 per cent of the total US equity market capitalisation.The analysis found that because passive funds have an incentive to minimise tracking errors, the rise in their importance has led to changes in the intraday trading volume dynamics.This has led to a shift in the diurnal pattern of trading volumes, consistent with the tendency of passive funds to trade around the close to minimise tracking error. This has changed trading patterns and led to “intraday return predictability”.Barclays says the predictability of late surges in trading activity caused by ETFs and index funds opens opportunities for “sizeable economic gains”...................... Whether that helps in trying to put your chips on the table or not, is moot. Volume is one of the few ways to beat the &#039;bots that operate during trading hours. Having a live screen, Iress or similar, would be beneficial in observing the two sides. </blockquote>

[QUOTE="Dona Ferentes, post: 1184005, member: 66457"] Somehow the 3:57 stayed in my memory, and I've been looking for a place to put the following. Just as information. But first, we're unlikely to have 40% overnight, either way. Too much self-balancing going on. If it did drop that amount it would be gave over. A total of 20% is regarded as a bear market, and the sum of days or weeks of price action. Even 10% in a day is rare. Looking at the other point, we are generally in this as retail bunnies, small players upon whom is bestowed both advantage (nimble) and disadvantage (being overwhelmed). No matter what our conviction, the sheer weight of money is what moves things. As you, [B][I]gg, [/I][/B]and many others have observed, the closing at 4:10pm is where the volume is. I found this, in the AFR and a bit of a puff piece supplied by Barclays and rejigged to look like investigative substance, but this bit of the article does contain some information this is useful. [HEADING=1]There’s alpha in ETFs' distortion of markets[/HEADING] A [quantitative] [I][COLOR=rgb(44, 130, 201)]strategy involves taking advantage of the anomalies in the US equity market from the flood of money into passive investment vehicles including exchange-traded funds and index funds, which now exceed the funds managed in active equity funds.[/COLOR][/I] [COLOR=rgb(44, 130, 201)][I]In 2020, the assets under management in index funds hit $US5 trillion, which is about 16 per cent of the total US equity market capitalisation. The analysis found that because passive funds have an incentive to minimise tracking errors, the rise in their importance has led to [B]changes in the intraday trading volume dynamics.[/B] This has led to a shift in the diurnal pattern of trading volumes, consistent with the [B]tendency of passive funds to trade around the [/B][/I][/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(243, 121, 52)][I][B]close[/B][/I][/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(44, 130, 201)][I][B] to minimise tracking error[/B]. This has changed trading patterns and led to “intraday return predictability”. Barclays says the predictability of late surges in trading activity caused by ETFs and index funds opens opportunities for “sizeable economic gains”.... .................. [/I][/COLOR][COLOR=rgb(0, 0, 0)]Whether that helps in trying to put your chips on the table or not, is moot. Volume is one of the few ways to beat the 'bots that operate during trading hours. Having a live screen, Iress or similar, would be beneficial in observing the two sides. [/COLOR] [/QUOTE]

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