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There seems to be a consensus that there will be a recession. Agreed. Do all recessions result in a bear market?

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So in '53-'54, it did not.
In '57-'58, yes it did.

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In 1960, yes it did.
End of '68-'69 into 1970 yes it did (see next chart).

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Continued from previous.

What is noticeable is that bull rallies launched out of the recessions long before the recessions completed.

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The other point worth noting is that often, the recession and bear start more or less at the same time (this could be hindsight though as the recessions are often plotted retrospectively).

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Again, market comes out of bear long before recession resolves.

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Not sure what happened on this one, but you get the idea.

Obviously we are going to incur a recession. The market will not however stay in bear mode for the duration of the recession. It could well be choppy, I'd be surprised if it wasn't, lots of negativity out there for sure. Markets (however) tend to look at causes rather than outcomes. When the cause is resolved, even though the outcomes linger...markets are off and running again.

jog on
duc

<blockquote data-quote="ducati916" data-source="post: 1067010" data-attributes="member: 2975">There seems to be a consensus that there will be a recession. Agreed. Do all recessions result in a bear market?[ATTACH=full]102169[/ATTACH] So in &#039;53-&#039;54, it did not.In &#039;57-&#039;58, yes it did.[ATTACH=full]102170[/ATTACH] In 1960, yes it did.End of &#039;68-&#039;69 into 1970 yes it did (see next chart).[ATTACH=full]102171[/ATTACH] Continued from previous.What is noticeable is that bull rallies launched out of the recessions long before the recessions completed.[ATTACH=full]102172[/ATTACH] The other point worth noting is that often, the recession and bear start more or less at the same time (this could be hindsight though as the recessions are often plotted retrospectively).[ATTACH=full]102173[/ATTACH] Again, market comes out of bear long before recession resolves.[ATTACH=full]102174[/ATTACH] Not sure what happened on this one, but you get the idea.Obviously we are going to incur a recession. The market will not however stay in bear mode for the duration of the recession. It could well be choppy, I&#039;d be surprised if it wasn&#039;t, lots of negativity out there for sure. Markets (however) tend to look at causes rather than outcomes. When the cause is resolved, even though the outcomes linger...markets are off and running again.jog onduc</blockquote>

[QUOTE="ducati916, post: 1067010, member: 2975"] [FONT=Book Antiqua]There seems to be a consensus that there will be a recession. Agreed. Do all recessions result in a bear market? [ATTACH=full]102169[/ATTACH] So in '53-'54, it did not. In '57-'58, yes it did. [ATTACH=full]102170[/ATTACH] In 1960, yes it did. End of '68-'69 into 1970 yes it did (see next chart). [ATTACH=full]102171[/ATTACH] Continued from previous. What is noticeable is that bull rallies launched out of the recessions long before the recessions completed. [ATTACH=full]102172[/ATTACH] The other point worth noting is that often, the recession and bear start more or less at the same time (this could be hindsight though as the recessions are often plotted retrospectively). [ATTACH=full]102173[/ATTACH] Again, market comes out of bear long before recession resolves. [ATTACH=full]102174[/ATTACH] Not sure what happened on this one, but you get the idea. Obviously we are going to incur a recession. The market will not however stay in bear mode for the duration of the recession. It could well be choppy, I'd be surprised if it wasn't, lots of negativity out there for sure. Markets (however) tend to look at causes rather than outcomes. When the cause is resolved, even though the outcomes linger...markets are off and running again. jog on duc [/FONT] [/QUOTE]

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