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Whenever we get to the -20% Drawdown on the Benchmark Index, it then becomes a matter of Recession/Crisis or not.1998, 2002, 2011 were fantastic times to buy because contagion didn't eventuate from the Asian Financial Crisis, Dot Com Bubble and Euro Debt.1990 and 2007 were terrible times because the Global Macro lead to Global Recessions.So basically if you take the variance in those two groups of outcomes, you're looking at up to further 40% swing or thereabouts (-20% vs +20% in the next 12 months) depending if you're right or wrong.That doesn't take into account a potential Black Swan situation like a Deutsche Bank or CitiBank.
Whenever we get to the -20% Drawdown on the Benchmark Index, it then becomes a matter of Recession/Crisis or not.
1998, 2002, 2011 were fantastic times to buy because contagion didn't eventuate from the Asian Financial Crisis, Dot Com Bubble and Euro Debt.
1990 and 2007 were terrible times because the Global Macro lead to Global Recessions.
So basically if you take the variance in those two groups of outcomes, you're looking at up to further 40% swing or thereabouts (-20% vs +20% in the next 12 months) depending if you're right or wrong.
That doesn't take into account a potential Black Swan situation like a Deutsche Bank or CitiBank.
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