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[ATTACH=full]188202[/ATTACH]
UK (“City of London” financial center): +2.8% MoM, +26.5% YoY, to $765 billion
Luxembourg: +3.9% MoM, +11.8% YoY, to $418 billion
Cayman Islands: +0.1% MoM, +33.4% YoY to $420 billion
Ireland: +1.8% MoM, +11.3% YoY, to $328 billion
Belgium (home of Euroclear): +12.8% MoM, +15.6% YoY, to $367 billion
Switzerland: +2.7% MoM, +8.6% YoY to $304 billion.
These are Hedge Funds. High leverage.
Buying the 2yr

[ATTACH=full]188204[/ATTACH]

But the sovereigns are dumping their 10yr

[ATTACH=full]188206[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]188205[/ATTACH]

[ATTACH=full]188203[/ATTACH]

Desperate times.

[ATTACH=full]188207[/ATTACH]

Full: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/12/lighthizer-trump-new-tariff-plan-00189114

President-elect Donald Trump’s former trade chief and those close to him are preparing to aggressively sell their plans for massive new tariffs on imports that will go far beyond anything seen in Trump’s first term.

Robert Lighthizer, a gruff, Ohio-born trade lawyer, and his allies have been circulating memos among themselves as they prepare to convince lawmakers and the public that their plans for dramatically higher tariffs will energize the economy instead of tanking it, according to a document viewed by POLITICO, provided by a person close to the policy planning.

All else equal, aggressive tariffs will drive deflation in China and inflation at biggest trade debtor nation and consumer of the world, the US.

Sovereign 10y bond markets are discounting, with Chinese 10y yields (CGB’s, purple) continuing to trend downward as one might expect under deflation, while 10y UST and 10y UK Gilt yields continue to trend higher, as one would expect under greater coming inflation, with both the US and UK 10y bonds now yielding 240-250 bps > 10y CGB yields.

[ATTACH=full]188208[/ATTACH]

You can't push wages higher when you are not the producer. Result = stagflation = higher unemployment = higher deficits = higher debt/gdp

Meanwhile we have Powell talking about slowing rate cuts. Forget the inflation issue, it was never about inflation, it's about cutting rates to lower the interest burden, except its not working as the 10yr is not falling, it's rising.

All in the 'strongest economy ever'. LOL.

Semis will be in focus this week as Nvidia ($NVDA) reports earnings on Wednesday evening. Despite their leadership in the first half of 2024, Semis have lagged by a notable margin in the second half.
While $NVDA has held up relatively well, the rest of the group has struggled since July. Andrew points out that the three major Semiconductor ETFs are much further from their highs than the S&P 500.

jog on
duc

<blockquote data-quote="ducati916" data-source="post: 1305080" data-attributes="member: 2975">[ATTACH=full]188202[/ATTACH]<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">UK (“City of London” financial center): +2.8% MoM, +26.5% YoY, to $765 billion</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Luxembourg: +3.9% MoM, +11.8% YoY, to $418 billion</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Cayman Islands: +0.1% MoM, +33.4% YoY to $420 billion</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Ireland: +1.8% MoM, +11.3% YoY, to $328 billion</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Belgium (home of Euroclear): +12.8% MoM, +15.6% YoY, to $367 billion</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Switzerland: +2.7% MoM, +8.6% YoY to $304 billion.</li>
</ul>These are Hedge Funds. High leverage.Buying the 2yr[ATTACH=full]188204[/ATTACH]But the sovereigns are dumping their 10yr[ATTACH=full]188206[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]188205[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]188203[/ATTACH]Desperate times.[ATTACH=full]188207[/ATTACH]Full: <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/12/lighthizer-trump-new-tariff-plan-00189114" target="_blank">https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/12/lighthizer-trump-new-tariff-plan-00189114</a>President-elect Donald Trump’s former trade chief and those close to him are preparing to aggressively sell their plans for massive new tariffs on imports that will go far beyond anything seen in Trump’s first term.Robert Lighthizer, a gruff, Ohio-born trade lawyer, and his allies have been circulating memos among themselves as they prepare to convince lawmakers and the public that their plans for dramatically higher tariffs will energize the economy instead of tanking it, according to a document viewed by POLITICO, provided by a person close to the policy planning.All else equal, aggressive tariffs will drive deflation in China and inflation at biggest trade debtor nation and consumer of the world, the US.Sovereign 10y bond markets are discounting, with Chinese 10y yields (CGB’s, purple) continuing to trend downward as one might expect under deflation, while 10y UST and 10y UK Gilt yields continue to trend higher, as one would expect under greater coming inflation, with both the US and UK 10y bonds now yielding 240-250 bps &gt; 10y CGB yields.[ATTACH=full]188208[/ATTACH]You can&#039;t push wages higher when you are not the producer. Result = stagflation = higher unemployment = higher deficits = higher debt/gdpMeanwhile we have Powell talking about slowing rate cuts. Forget the inflation issue, it was never about inflation, it&#039;s about cutting rates to lower the interest burden, except its not working as the 10yr is not falling, it&#039;s rising.All in the &#039;strongest economy ever&#039;. LOL.<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Semis will be in focus this week as Nvidia ($NVDA) reports earnings on Wednesday evening. Despite their leadership in the first half of 2024, Semis have lagged by a notable margin in the second half. 
 </li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">While $NVDA has held up relatively well, the rest of the group has struggled since July. Andrew points out that the three major Semiconductor ETFs are much further from their highs than the S&amp;P 500.&nbsp;&nbsp; 
&nbsp; </li>
</ul>jog onduc</blockquote>

[QUOTE="ducati916, post: 1305080, member: 2975"] [ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-11-20 at 5.19.10 AM.png"]188202[/ATTACH] [LIST] [*]UK (“City of London” financial center): +2.8% MoM, +26.5% YoY, to $765 billion [*]Luxembourg: +3.9% MoM, +11.8% YoY, to $418 billion [*]Cayman Islands: +0.1% MoM, +33.4% YoY to $420 billion [*]Ireland: +1.8% MoM, +11.3% YoY, to $328 billion [*]Belgium (home of Euroclear): +12.8% MoM, +15.6% YoY, to $367 billion [*]Switzerland: +2.7% MoM, +8.6% YoY to $304 billion. [/LIST] These are Hedge Funds. High leverage. Buying the 2yr [ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-11-19 at 4.35.16 PM.png"]188204[/ATTACH] But the sovereigns are dumping their 10yr [ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-11-20 at 5.26.13 AM.png"]188206[/ATTACH][ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-11-19 at 4.34.38 PM.png"]188205[/ATTACH] [ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-11-20 at 5.17.29 AM.png"]188203[/ATTACH] Desperate times. [ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-11-20 at 5.36.06 AM.png"]188207[/ATTACH] Full: [URL]https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/12/lighthizer-trump-new-tariff-plan-00189114[/URL] [I]President-elect Donald Trump’s former trade chief and those close to him are preparing to aggressively sell their plans for massive new tariffs on imports that will go far beyond anything seen in Trump’s first term. Robert Lighthizer, a gruff, Ohio-born trade lawyer, and his allies have been circulating memos among themselves as they prepare to convince lawmakers and the public that their plans for dramatically higher tariffs will energize the economy instead of tanking it, according to a document viewed by POLITICO, provided by a person close to the policy planning.[/I] All else equal, aggressive tariffs will drive deflation in China and inflation at biggest trade debtor nation and consumer of the world, the US. Sovereign 10y bond markets are discounting, with Chinese 10y yields (CGB’s, purple) continuing to trend downward as one might expect under deflation, while 10y UST and 10y UK Gilt yields continue to trend higher, as one would expect under greater coming inflation, with both the US and UK 10y bonds now yielding 240-250 bps > 10y CGB yields. [ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-11-20 at 5.37.53 AM.png"]188208[/ATTACH] You can't push wages higher when you are not the producer. Result = stagflation = higher unemployment = higher deficits = higher debt/gdp Meanwhile we have Powell talking about slowing rate cuts. Forget the inflation issue, it was never about inflation, it's about cutting rates to lower the interest burden, except its not working as the 10yr is not falling, it's rising. All in the 'strongest economy ever'. LOL. [LIST] [*]Semis will be in focus this week as Nvidia ($NVDA) reports earnings on Wednesday evening. Despite their leadership in the first half of 2024, Semis have lagged by a notable margin in the second half. [*]While $NVDA has held up relatively well, the rest of the group has struggled since July. Andrew points out that the three major Semiconductor ETFs are much further from their highs than the S&P 500. [/LIST] jog on duc [/QUOTE]

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