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Housing stuff:

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Which rather implies that they will want to buy it at $100K or higher when they didn't buy it lower. The BTC story has been around a long time. They will be aware of it and obviously not impressed.

The only 'trigger' might be FOMO. But unlikely.

Bitcoin's relentless rally has pressed on.  In the past 24 hours, the world's largest crypto has surpassed the $98,000 mark for the first time ever as it closes in on the $100,000 milestone. As shown below, after trending lower from the end of the first quarter through late summer, Bitcoin hit a low on September 6 and finally broke out of that downtrend by mid-October with a parabolic move upwards after the election. Currently, the crypto is up over 80% from that September low.

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Bitcoin has seen a lot of big green candles in the past few weeks. To gauge how it has traded during the day, below we show an intraday composite of Bitcoin's action since Election Day a little over two weeks ago.  This is essentially the average 24-hour path that Bitcoin has taken since Election Day.  We have shaded in gray the period from 9:30 AM ET to 4 PM ET, which represents regular trading hours for US equity markets.  As you can see, Bitcoin has been surging when the US stock market has been open outside of a slight sell-off from 2-4 PM ET.  Is this because of all the new Bitcoin ETF buying that has been happening lately?

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The surge in Bitcoin prices has also come at a time when seasonality hasn't exactly been at its best. In the second chart below, we show the average path of Bitcoin throughout the year for all years since 2015, over the past five years, and this year.  As shown, this year in March and the second half of May, Bitcoin bucked seasonal trends as it saw much stronger runs versus a historical seasonal pattern in which prices have tended to fall. That parallels with this month in which prices have absolutely soared, whereas in the past, Bitcoin has tended to move lower in November before rebounding through the holidays. In fact, as the first days of December approach, forward one month and three month seasonality is reaching some of its strongest readings of the year.  As shown in the dials below, forward one month historical median seasonal returns rank in the 85th percentile of all days of the year and forward three month returns are even better, just shy of the top decile of readings. Of course, seasonality is no guarantee of future price movements, and the recent rally already leaves Bitcoin very overbought.

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Housing is looking bad. Housing is an important category within the US economy. High interest rates are to blame.

Oil News:

European gas prices have surged almost 45% this year and forecasts for cold weather threaten to add pressures on gas supply, further aggravated by US sanctions on Gazprom’s very own banking subsidiary, Gazprombank.

- For most of November temperatures in Northwest Europe have been trending along the 30-year average line or below, marking the first cold winter since 2021, and leading to gas inventories draws to 87.7% of capacity.

- There is very limited LNG supply capacity increases coming this winter, mostly from Plaquemines in the US, however production disruptions across the globe could offset those increments, with Woodside halting LNG liftings from Australia’s Pluto due to an unplanned outage.

- Front-month TTF natural gas prices reached their highest in a year on 21 November, reaching €48.3 per MWh (equivalent to $16.1 per mmBtu), whilst JKM lagged behind European prices, pricing only slightly above $15 per mmBtu.

Market Movers

- US midstream major ONEOK (NYSE:OKE) signed an agreement to purchase all remaining publicly held units of EnLink Midstream in a $4.3 billion transaction, boosting its 50,000-mile pipeline network.

 

- The US’ leading natural gas producer EQT (NYSE:EQT) will be forming a JV with US investment firm Blackstone, with the latter getting a stake in the Mountain Valley Pipeline in return for $3.5 billion in cash.

- Mining major AngloAmerican (LON:AAL) agreed to sell its remaining coking coal mines in Australia to Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) for up to $3.78 billion in cash, as part of its large-scale divestment drive.

Tuesday, November 26, 2024

A potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal is looming large on the geopolitical front, but as we get closer to December 1, OPEC+ is becoming the main focus of oil markets. After the energy ministers of Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq met in Baghdad on Tuesday, unannounced, the pendulum has swung towards postponement of production increases, with ICE Brent so far rangebound at around $73.50 per barrel.

OPEC+ Meeting No Longer Happening in Person. OPEC+ will hold its much-anticipated policy meeting online rather than in person, as the oil markets are speculating about Saudi Arabia and Russia considering postponing output increases indefinitely amidst weak global demand.

China Issues Extra Quota for Independents. China has issued an additional crude import quota of 5.84 million tonnes (equivalent to almost 120,000 b/d) to independent refiners so that they can boost refinery runs in the remaining weeks of 2024, particularly independent major Hengli (SHA:600346).

Oil Service Firms Crank Up Pressure on Pemex. Oil service providers across Mexico are demanding that state-owned oil firm Pemex pay its overdue debts totaling $5.1 billion, just as the new Sheinbaum government has simplified taxation for Pemex, merging three duties into one.

Venezuela Braces for Shortages After Gas Meltdown. Propane production plunged 97% since an explosion at the Muscar gas complex debilitated Venezuela’s gas separation complex, drastically cutting the availability of cooking oil over the next four to five months until Muscar is fully repaired. 

Diesel Backwardation Widest Since April. The time spread between M1 and M2 of ICE gasoil futures has moved to its widest since April, at a $7.5 per metric tonne premium, indicating that backwardation is steepening amidst lower Saudi and US incoming volumes and lower European availability. 

Bangladesh to Open Exploration Next Month. Bangladesh will open its international bidding process for offshore gas exploration next month, concurrently liberalizing its LNG market, allowing any commercial entity to import LNG from the spot market.

Russian Pipeline Gas Still Flowing to Austria. The Gazprom-OMV arbitration row seems to be having no impact whatsoever on physical supplies of natural gas to Europe as this week’s nominations have been stable at 42.2 MCm/day, with Austria-bound deliveries returning to levels seen last week.

Adani Collapse Impacts French Major. French energy giant TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) announced it would stop any financial contributions to India’s Adani group of companies after the US SEC charged India’s second-richest businessman Gautam Adani with bribery, jointly developing 4 renewables-focused assets.

Exxon Sees No Future in Suriname. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) has relinquished its 50% non-operated interest in deepwater Block 52 in Suriname, just across the border from its prolific Stabroek block in Guyana, with Malaysia’s Petronas taking over the entire acreage.

Coffee Prices Soar to 27-Year Highs on Shrinking Supply. Coffee futures skyrocketed to their highest since 1997 on weak crop concerns, with Arabica prices hitting $3.1 per pound, up almost 65% this year, as continuous drought conditions in Brazil are set to drastically reduce next year’s output. 

Turkey Asks for Russia Sanction Waivers. The Turkish government is reportedly in talks with the United States to secure a Russia sanctions waiver to continue paying for its natural gas supplies through the recently sanctioned Gazprombank, with Gazprom supplying 50% of its gas imports.

Saudi Arabia Goes All In on Metals. Saudi Arabia signed 9 investment deals in metals and mining worth more than $9.3 billion with Asian mining majors such as Vedanta or Zijin Group, seeking to boost domestic capacity with a new copper smelter in Ras al-Khair, zinc and platinum smelters.

Brazil Gets The Dividend Mojo Going. Brazil’s national oil company Petrobras (NYSEBR) approved the payout of an additional $3.4 billion in extraordinary dividends to shareholders, withheld previously under the previous management, concurrently lowering the minimum cash level to $6 billion.

Dangerous idea to bring to the market?: https://thewaiterspad.com/2024/11/25/there-are-no-facts-only-feelings/

Free backtesting Option software: https://optionalpha.com/backtester-start?utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=New 0DTE backtester features and more in our November release&utm_campaign=November platform release (non members)&vgo_ee=BWKa3DwSMmSXEfcO2Clvm+1dHIPg6qW6RwWFhWpOIQKfF1E=:GvyhtBg0wwtQy04cXojsUQkrADPS/22h

Bitcoin: https://prospect.org/power/2024-11-26-crypto-plot-against-americas-gold-reserves/

Worth a read.

From Bespoke:

It's a holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week, so over the next few days, we plan on writing about some of the stocks that investors can be most thankful for.  Yesterday we looked at the best performing stocks over the last five years, and in this post, we're highlighting the 30 best-performing stocks in the S&P 1500 on a total return basis over the last twenty years. In the table below we rank them from 1st to 30th and show how much a $1,000 investment in each stock twenty years ago (on 11/25/04) would be worth today. Below the table, we provide a one-sentence blurb generated by AI that describes what each company does. AI chip maker NVIDIA (NVDA) has easily been the best-performing stock over the last twenty years, and it has made a large number of investors extremely wealthy. Incredibly, a $1,000 investment in NVDA twenty years ago would have almost turned you into a millionaire today! Unbelievably, $1,000 in NVDA back on 11/25/04 would be worth roughly $944k today. (By the same math, $10k would be worth $9.44 million, while $100k would be worth $94.4 million.) Twenty-year returns for streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) haven't been too shabby either.  $1,000 in NFLX twenty years ago would be worth more than $550k today.  Rounding out the top five are Texas Pacific Land (TPL), Apple (AAPL), and Booking Holdings (BKNG). In total, eight stocks have turned $1,000 into more than $100k over the last twenty years. This includes the aforementioned NVDA, NFLX, TPL, AAPL, and BKNG along with Monster Beverage (MNST), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), and Amazon.com (AMZN). Other notables on the list include Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Salesforce (CRM), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), and United Rentals (URI). For anyone out there who has been riding any of these big winners for the last twenty years, bravo to you, and Happy Thanksgiving!

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For a quick description of each company listed above, we asked AI to give us its best one-sentence blurb: NVIDIA (NVDA): A leader in graphics processing units (GPUs) for gaming, artificial intelligence, and data centers, driving innovation in computing and visual technologies. Netflix (NFLX): A global streaming service offering a vast library of movies, TV shows, and original content, accessible on-demand across various devices. Texas Pacific Land (TPL): Manages oil and gas royalties, land leases, and water services for energy production in Texas. Apple (AAPL): Designs and sells consumer electronics like the iPhone, Mac, and iPad, along with software and services like the App Store and iCloud. Booking Holdings (BKNG): Operates online travel brands like Booking.com, Priceline, and Agoda, providing services for hotel reservations, car rentals, and flights. Monster Beverage (MNST): Produces energy drinks, including the flagship Monster Energy brand, targeting consumers looking for enhanced energy and focus. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): Manufactures robotic-assisted surgical systems, including the da Vinci system, enhancing precision and minimally invasive procedures. Amazon.com (AMZN): A global e-commerce leader offering retail, cloud computing, and digital streaming services, alongside innovations like Amazon Web Services (AWS). XPO (XPO): Provides freight transportation and logistics services, specializing in less-than-truckload (LTL) and last-mile delivery solutions. UFP Technologies (UFPT): Designs and manufactures custom packaging, components, and engineered products for medical, automotive, and industrial applications. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN): Develops biopharmaceuticals to treat serious medical conditions, including eye diseases, cancer, and autoimmune disorders. Comfort Systems USA (FIX): Provides mechanical systems installation and services, specializing in HVAC and building systems for commercial clients. RadNet (RDNT): Operates outpatient diagnostic imaging centers offering MRI, CT scans, and other radiology services across the U.S. NeoGenomics (NEO): A cancer diagnostics company providing genetic and molecular testing for oncologists, pathologists, and researchers. Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK): Markets lifestyle footwear and apparel under brands like UGG, Teva, and HOKA ONE ONE, known for comfort and performance. AAON (AAON): Manufactures heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment, focusing on energy efficiency and innovative designs. Salesforce (CRM): A cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) platform that enables businesses to manage sales, service, and marketing operations. Tyler Technologies (TYL): Provides software and technology services for local governments, focusing on public safety, tax, and financial management. Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL): A leading less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier offering efficient freight transportation across North America. Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO): Best known for its FICO credit scoring system, it provides analytics and decision-making software for risk management. Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR): Designs power management solutions for electronics in industrial, automotive, and consumer markets. Repligen (RGEN): Develops bioprocessing technologies and materials used in the production of biologic drugs and gene therapies. O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY): A retailer and distributor of automotive parts, tools, and equipment, serving professional and DIY customers. Domino's Pizza (DPZ): A global leader in pizza delivery and carryout services, leveraging technology for fast and convenient ordering. EMCOR Group (EME): Provides construction and facilities services, specializing in mechanical and electrical systems installation and maintenance. Lennox International (LII): Produces HVAC and refrigeration equipment for residential and commercial applications. United Rentals (URI): The largest equipment rental company in the world, offering construction, industrial, and specialty equipment. Manhattan Associates (MANH): Provides supply chain and omnichannel commerce solutions to help retailers and wholesalers optimize operations. Quanta Services (PWR): Delivers infrastructure services for energy and communications, including electric power and pipeline construction. Copart (CPRT): An online vehicle auction company specializing in salvaged and used cars, serving insurance companies, dealerships, and buyers worldwide.

jog on

duc