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An upside resolution of this base will mark the beginning of a new bull market for crypto. I believe we right there. Get ready. https://stockmarkettv.com/alfonsos-daily-note/2024-10-28/cryptos-next-bull-run…#Bitcoin
[ATTACH=full]186866[/ATTACH]

12:51 PM · Oct 29, 2024
·

10-year yields and crude oil are breaking from their relationship (red box).This divergence started around October 6.
[ATTACH=full]186867[/ATTACH]

4:05 AM · Oct 29, 2024
·

What else started Around Oct 6? Trump began to pull ahead.The election is now dominating the bond market.A Trump victory and the potential of massive financial stimulus (cut taxes and deregulation) combined with tariffs (inflation) are strong drivers of yields higher than even a down 5% day on crude oil (today) cannot get the bond market to rally.
[ATTACH=full]186868[/ATTACH]

4:05 AM · Oct 29, 2024
·

Long-term bond yields continue to march higher with 10-year now at 4.33% and the 30-year at 4.57%. These are the highest yields since the start of the summer and substantially above the September lows when the Fed cut interest rates by 50 bps.

[ATTACH=full]186869[/ATTACH]
Bond market investors seem to be going on strike, protesting the profligate fiscal policies in place with the expectation of higher inflation to come.
The US National Debt continues to explode to the upside, increasing by $840 billion in just the last 3 months. Over the past five years, we’ve seen a 56% increase with National Debt moving from $22.9 trillion up to $35.8 trillion.

[ATTACH=full]186870[/ATTACH]

All about NFLX:

In April 2022, Bill Ackman told his Pershing Square investors that he had sold his Netflix shares which were purchased just a few months earlier, taking a $400 million loss in the process.

[ATTACH=full]186871[/ATTACH]
At the time, Netflix was in the midst of a major growth slowdown and a drawdown in its share price over over 70%.

[ATTACH=full]186872[/ATTACH]

[ATTACH=full]186873[/ATTACH]
What happened next?
A 180 degree turnaround.
Netflix shares hit another all-time high last week after reporting earnings, rising 251% from the date of the Ackman sale. For comparison, the S&P 500 was up 38% over the same time period.

[ATTACH=full]186874[/ATTACH]
After stumbling in 2022, Netflix found new growth engines and their revenues and profits resumed their upward trajectory. In their latest quarterly release, Netflix reported record revenues ($9.83 billion, +15% YoY), record net income ($2.36 billion, +41% YoY), and record net profit margins (20.7%, up from 13.8% a year ago).

[ATTACH=full]186875[/ATTACH]

[ATTACH=full]186876[/ATTACH]
Netflix now has a record 283 million paid subscribers, a 14% increase from a year ago.

[ATTACH=full]186877[/ATTACH]
The lesson: stock picking is hard, even for the greatest investors.

[ATTACH=full]186863[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]186862[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]186861[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]186860[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]186859[/ATTACH]

Back to the USD, UST and $MOVE

[ATTACH=full]186856[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]186857[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]186858[/ATTACH]

The only price keeping somewhat of a lid on this:

[ATTACH=full]186855[/ATTACH]

If oil was higher or starts rallying, there will be problems.

Current predictions:

[ATTACH=full]186864[/ATTACH]

Couple in there that have market impact.

Mr FFF

NOVEMBER LOOMS
Mon Oct 28, 2024 4:08pm EST 1

As we ebb towards November and Americans gird themselves for large platters filled with turkey and vats of brown gravy, I’d like to remind you that stocks do not fall during the month of November. People often as me why and I simply reply “why the **** not?”
You think too much and know too little.

[ATTACH=full]186878[/ATTACH]

For the session, I gained +48bps, down from an intraday high of +100bps. We dove into the ******* close, as is customary these days. I have been rather static in my approach, trading less, and applying normal levels of risk, so pardon me if I don’t return 4% on a day when the ******* NASDAQ is flat.

[ATTACH=full]186879[/ATTACH]

I’d like to be up triple my current level for 2024 but the Gods are preferring that I wait. It’s simply a matter of time before I bust loose again, skipping over the inevitable COLLAPSE of markets which will assuredly take those of you boasting about 10% daily gains directly into the garbage compactor to be chewed up and flushed into the ******* sewers, never to be seen or heard from again.

GOOD DAY

Rates Up Here is a Problem
Tue Oct 29, 2024 10:14am EST 0

These are likely the very final blogs of the site, so I want to make them useful. We are bullish providing the conditions are right. One of those conditions is lower rates. I cannot sit here and tell you that the US 10YR at 4.30% is a nothing burger. The fact that the Fed cannot assuage markets to fall in line is always troubling. I have seen this play out before and the Fed ALWAYS wins. But, make no mistake, the jitters you’re sensing in the tape with this overhang is due to the bond market ******* off.

There are many things to like about this tape, two of which are not valuations and the cost of capital. In order to justify the higher valuations under the auspices of ‘valuation expansion’, we need the cost of capital to come down.

[ATTACH=full]186865[/ATTACH]

Preparing to push higher?

Sure, as long as the UST market doesn't blow-up first.

If all you look at are the technicals of the stock market, all would seem well. Technically, it looks pretty good. Problem is, that chart pattern means nothing if the UST market goes into convulsions. Currently it is close. If the Fed takes note and adds liquidity, all will be fine. If not and they are asleep at the wheel, then we will have a moment.

As I said earlier, probably the only thing keeping a lid on it atm is the really weak POO. The chart of POO suggests further weakness. That could all change very quickly if something happens in the Ukraine or ME.

But even more of an issue than the above is the issue of Shale Oil and the cost per barrel of production. Shale oil needs +/- $70/barrel to make it economic to produce. If POO stays below that for any length of time, production will be cut and POO rises on supply issues. Shale cannot just be turned back on.

jog on
duc

<blockquote data-quote="ducati916" data-source="post: 1302264" data-attributes="member: 2975">An upside resolution of this base will mark the beginning of a new bull market for crypto. I believe we right there. Get ready. <a href="https://t.co/sqQho8VwmH" target="_blank">https://stockmarkettv.com/alfonsos-daily-note/2024-10-28/cryptos-next-bull-run…</a><a href="https://x.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hashtag_click" target="_blank">#Bitcoin</a><a href="https://x.com/AlfCharts/status/1851049245778104785/photo/1" target="_blank">[ATTACH=full]186866[/ATTACH]</a><a href="https://x.com/AlfCharts/status/1851049245778104785" target="_blank">12:51 PM · Oct 29, 2024</a>·10-year yields and crude oil are breaking from their relationship (red box).This divergence started around October 6.<a href="https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1850916922503598334/photo/1" target="_blank">[ATTACH=full]186867[/ATTACH]</a><a href="https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1850916922503598334" target="_blank">4:05 AM · Oct 29, 2024</a>·What else started Around Oct 6? Trump began to pull ahead.The election is now dominating the bond market.A Trump victory and the potential of massive financial stimulus (cut taxes and deregulation) combined with tariffs (inflation) are strong drivers of yields higher than even a down 5% day on crude oil (today) cannot get the bond market to rally.<a href="https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1850916924886282535/photo/1" target="_blank">[ATTACH=full]186868[/ATTACH]</a><a href="https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1850916924886282535" target="_blank">4:05 AM · Oct 29, 2024</a>·
<table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>Long-term bond yields continue to march higher with 10-year now at 4.33% and the 30-year at 4.57%. These are the highest yields since the start of the summer and substantially above the September lows when the Fed cut interest rates by 50 bps.
</td></tr><tr><td>
<table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>[ATTACH=full]186869[/ATTACH]
</td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td>Bond market investors seem to be going on strike, protesting the profligate fiscal policies in place with the expectation of higher inflation to come.
</td></tr><tr><td>The US National Debt continues to explode to the upside, increasing by $840 billion in just the last 3 months. Over the past five years, we’ve seen a 56% increase with National Debt moving from $22.9 trillion up to $35.8 trillion.
</td></tr><tr><td>
<table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>[ATTACH=full]186870[/ATTACH]
</td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td>
</td></tr></table>All about NFLX:
<table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>In April 2022, Bill Ackman told his Pershing Square investors that he had sold his Netflix shares which were purchased just a few months earlier, taking a $400 million loss in the process.
</td></tr><tr><td>
<table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>[ATTACH=full]186871[/ATTACH]
</td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td>At the time, Netflix was in the midst of a major growth slowdown and a drawdown in its share price over over 70%.
</td></tr><tr><td>
<table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>[ATTACH=full]186872[/ATTACH]
</td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td>
<table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>[ATTACH=full]186873[/ATTACH]
</td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td>What happened next?
</td></tr><tr><td>A 180 degree turnaround.
</td></tr><tr><td>Netflix shares hit another all-time high last week after reporting earnings, rising 251% from the date of the Ackman sale. For comparison, the S&amp;P 500 was up 38% over the same time period.
</td></tr><tr><td>
<table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>[ATTACH=full]186874[/ATTACH]
</td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td>After stumbling in 2022, Netflix found new growth engines and their revenues and profits resumed their upward trajectory. In their latest quarterly release, Netflix reported record revenues ($9.83 billion, +15% YoY), record net income ($2.36 billion, +41% YoY), and record net profit margins (20.7%, up from 13.8% a year ago).
</td></tr><tr><td>
<table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>[ATTACH=full]186875[/ATTACH]
</td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td>
<table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>[ATTACH=full]186876[/ATTACH]
</td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td>Netflix now has a record 283 million paid subscribers, a 14% increase from a year ago.
</td></tr><tr><td>
<table style='width: 100%'><tr><td>[ATTACH=full]186877[/ATTACH]
</td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td>The lesson: stock picking is hard, even for the greatest investors. 

</td></tr></table>[ATTACH=full]186863[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]186862[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]186861[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]186860[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]186859[/ATTACH]Back to the USD, UST and $MOVE[ATTACH=full]186856[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]186857[/ATTACH][ATTACH=full]186858[/ATTACH]The only price keeping somewhat of a lid on this:[ATTACH=full]186855[/ATTACH]If oil was higher or starts rallying, there will be problems.Current predictions:[ATTACH=full]186864[/ATTACH]Couple in there that have market impact.Mr FFF<h2><a href="https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2024/10/28/november-looms-2/" target="_blank">NOVEMBER LOOMS</a></h2>Mon Oct 28, 2024 4:08pm EST <a href="https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2024/10/28/november-looms-2/#comments" target="_blank">1</a>As we ebb towards November and Americans gird themselves for large platters filled with turkey and vats of brown gravy, I’d like to remind you that stocks do not fall during the month of November. People often as me why and I simply reply “why the **** not?”You think too much and know too little.[ATTACH=full]186878[/ATTACH]For the session, I gained +48bps, down from an intraday high of +100bps. We dove into the ******* close, as is customary these days. I have been rather static in my approach, trading less, and applying normal levels of risk, so pardon me if I don’t return 4% on a day when the ******* NASDAQ is flat.[ATTACH=full]186879[/ATTACH]I’d like to be up triple my current level for 2024 but the Gods are preferring that I wait. It’s simply a matter of time before I bust loose again, skipping over the inevitable COLLAPSE of markets which will assuredly take those of you boasting about 10% daily gains directly into the garbage compactor to be chewed up and flushed into the ******* sewers, never to be seen or heard from again.&nbsp;GOOD DAY<h3><a href="https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2024/10/29/rates-up-here-is-a-problem/" target="_blank">Rates Up Here is a Problem</a></h3>Tue Oct 29, 2024 10:14am EST <a href="https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2024/10/29/rates-up-here-is-a-problem/#respond" target="_blank">0</a>These are likely the very final blogs of the site, so I want to make them useful. We are bullish providing the conditions are right. One of those conditions is lower rates. I cannot sit here and tell you that the US 10YR at 4.30% is a nothing burger. The fact that the Fed cannot assuage markets to fall in line is always troubling. I have seen this play out before and the Fed ALWAYS wins. But, make no mistake, the jitters you’re sensing in the tape with this overhang is due to the bond market ******* off.There are many things to like about this tape, two of which are not valuations and the cost of capital. In order to justify the higher valuations under the auspices of ‘valuation expansion’, we need the cost of capital to come down.[ATTACH=full]186865[/ATTACH]Preparing to push higher?Sure, as long as the UST market doesn&#039;t blow-up first.If all you look at are the technicals of the stock market, all would seem well. Technically, it looks pretty good. Problem is, that chart pattern means nothing if the UST market goes into convulsions. Currently it is close. If the Fed takes note and adds liquidity, all will be fine. If not and they are asleep at the wheel, then we will have a moment.As I said earlier, probably the only thing keeping a lid on it atm is the really weak POO. The chart of POO suggests further weakness. That could all change very quickly if something happens in the Ukraine or ME.But even more of an issue than the above is the issue of Shale Oil and the cost per barrel of production. Shale oil needs +/- $70/barrel to make it economic to produce. If POO stays below that for any length of time, production will be cut and POO rises on supply issues. Shale cannot just be turned back on.jog onduc</blockquote>

[QUOTE="ducati916, post: 1302264, member: 2975"] An upside resolution of this base will mark the beginning of a new bull market for crypto. I believe we right there. Get ready. [URL='https://t.co/sqQho8VwmH']https://stockmarkettv.com/alfonsos-daily-note/2024-10-28/cryptos-next-bull-run…[/URL][URL='https://x.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hashtag_click']#Bitcoin[/URL] [URL='https://x.com/AlfCharts/status/1851049245778104785/photo/1'][ATTACH type="full" alt="GbA_VrVXgAAX376?format=png&name=medium.png"]186866[/ATTACH][/URL] [URL='https://x.com/AlfCharts/status/1851049245778104785']12:51 PM · Oct 29, 2024[/URL] · 10-year yields and crude oil are breaking from their relationship (red box).This divergence started around October 6. [URL='https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1850916922503598334/photo/1'][ATTACH type="full" alt="Ga_GY9MXEAAWE89?format=jpg&name=medium.jpg"]186867[/ATTACH][/URL] [URL='https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1850916922503598334']4:05 AM · Oct 29, 2024[/URL] · What else started Around Oct 6? Trump began to pull ahead.The election is now dominating the bond market.A Trump victory and the potential of massive financial stimulus (cut taxes and deregulation) combined with tariffs (inflation) are strong drivers of yields higher than even a down 5% day on crude oil (today) cannot get the bond market to rally. [URL='https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1850916924886282535/photo/1'][ATTACH type="full" alt="Ga_GhmoXMAAN6mh?format=jpg&name=medium.jpg"]186868[/ATTACH][/URL] [URL='https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1850916924886282535']4:05 AM · Oct 29, 2024[/URL] · [CENTER][/CENTER] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][LEFT]Long-term bond yields continue to march higher with 10-year now at 4.33% and the 30-year at 4.57%. These are the highest yields since the start of the summer and substantially above the September lows when the Fed cut interest rates by 50 bps.[/LEFT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][CENTER][/CENTER] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][CENTER][ATTACH type="full" alt="10-year-and-30-year-yields-10-29.png"]186869[/ATTACH][/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][LEFT]Bond market investors seem to be going on strike, protesting the profligate fiscal policies in place with the expectation of higher inflation to come.[/LEFT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][LEFT]The US National Debt continues to explode to the upside, increasing by $840 billion in just the last 3 months. Over the past five years, we’ve seen a 56% increase with National Debt moving from $22.9 trillion up to $35.8 trillion.[/LEFT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][CENTER][/CENTER] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][CENTER][ATTACH type="full" alt="national-debt-last-5-years-10-28-1024x548.png"]186870[/ATTACH][/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][LEFT][/LEFT][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] All about NFLX: [CENTER][/CENTER] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][LEFT]In April 2022, Bill Ackman told his Pershing Square investors that he had sold his Netflix shares which were purchased just a few months earlier, taking a $400 million loss in the process.[/LEFT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][CENTER][/CENTER] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][CENTER][ATTACH type="full" alt="netflix-ackman-10-29.png"]186871[/ATTACH][/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][LEFT]At the time, Netflix was in the midst of a major growth slowdown and a drawdown in its share price over over 70%.[/LEFT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][CENTER][/CENTER] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][CENTER][ATTACH type="full" alt="nflx-10-29.png"]186872[/ATTACH][/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][CENTER][/CENTER] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][CENTER][ATTACH type="full" alt="nflx-revenues-1-20.png"]186873[/ATTACH][/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][LEFT]What happened next?[/LEFT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][LEFT]A 180 degree turnaround.[/LEFT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][LEFT]Netflix shares hit another all-time high last week after reporting earnings, rising 251% from the date of the Ackman sale. For comparison, the S&P 500 was up 38% over the same time period.[/LEFT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][CENTER][/CENTER] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][CENTER][ATTACH type="full" alt="nflx-spy-ackman-10-25.png"]186874[/ATTACH][/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][LEFT]After stumbling in 2022, Netflix found new growth engines and their revenues and profits resumed their upward trajectory. In their latest quarterly release, Netflix reported record revenues ($9.83 billion, +15% YoY), record net income ($2.36 billion, +41% YoY), and record net profit margins (20.7%, up from 13.8% a year ago).[/LEFT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][CENTER][/CENTER] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][CENTER][ATTACH type="full" alt="nflx-yoy-10-17.png"]186875[/ATTACH][/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][CENTER][/CENTER] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][CENTER][ATTACH type="full" alt="nflx-profit-margin-10-25.png"]186876[/ATTACH][/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][LEFT]Netflix now has a record 283 million paid subscribers, a 14% increase from a year ago.[/LEFT][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][CENTER][/CENTER] [TABLE] [TR] [TD][CENTER][ATTACH type="full" alt="nflx-subs-10-17.png"]186877[/ATTACH][/CENTER][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][LEFT]The lesson: stock picking is hard, even for the greatest investors. [/LEFT][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-10-30 at 4.08.10 AM.png"]186863[/ATTACH][ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-10-30 at 4.08.34 AM.png"]186862[/ATTACH][ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-10-30 at 4.09.19 AM.png"]186861[/ATTACH][ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-10-30 at 4.09.47 AM.png"]186860[/ATTACH][ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-10-30 at 4.10.00 AM.png"]186859[/ATTACH] Back to the USD, UST and $MOVE [ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-10-30 at 4.15.02 AM.png"]186856[/ATTACH][ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-10-30 at 4.14.40 AM.png"]186857[/ATTACH][ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-10-30 at 4.14.11 AM.png"]186858[/ATTACH] The only price keeping somewhat of a lid on this: [ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-10-30 at 4.15.26 AM.png"]186855[/ATTACH] If oil was higher or starts rallying, there will be problems. Current predictions: [ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-10-30 at 4.21.39 AM.png"]186864[/ATTACH] Couple in there that have market impact. Mr FFF [HEADING=1][URL='https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2024/10/28/november-looms-2/']NOVEMBER LOOMS[/URL][/HEADING] Mon Oct 28, 2024 4:08pm EST [URL='https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2024/10/28/november-looms-2/#comments']1[/URL] As we ebb towards November and Americans gird themselves for large platters filled with turkey and vats of brown gravy, I’d like to remind you that stocks do not fall during the month of November. People often as me why and I simply reply “why the **** not?” You think too much and know too little. [ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen-Shot-2024-10-28-at-4.02.22-PM.png"]186878[/ATTACH] For the session, I gained +48bps, down from an intraday high of +100bps. We dove into the ******* close, as is customary these days. I have been rather static in my approach, trading less, and applying normal levels of risk, so pardon me if I don’t return 4% on a day when the ******* NASDAQ is flat. [ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen-Shot-2024-10-28-at-4.02.55-PM-1024x264.png"]186879[/ATTACH] I’d like to be up triple my current level for 2024 but the Gods are preferring that I wait. It’s simply a matter of time before I bust loose again, skipping over the inevitable COLLAPSE of markets which will assuredly take those of you boasting about 10% daily gains directly into the garbage compactor to be chewed up and flushed into the ******* sewers, never to be seen or heard from again. GOOD DAY [HEADING=2][URL='https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2024/10/29/rates-up-here-is-a-problem/']Rates Up Here is a Problem[/URL][/HEADING] Tue Oct 29, 2024 10:14am EST [URL='https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2024/10/29/rates-up-here-is-a-problem/#respond']0[/URL] These are likely the very final blogs of the site, so I want to make them useful. We are bullish providing the conditions are right. One of those conditions is lower rates. I cannot sit here and tell you that the US 10YR at 4.30% is a nothing burger. The fact that the Fed cannot assuage markets to fall in line is always troubling. I have seen this play out before and the Fed ALWAYS wins. But, make no mistake, the jitters you’re sensing in the tape with this overhang is due to the bond market ******* off. There are many things to like about this tape, two of which are not valuations and the cost of capital. In order to justify the higher valuations under the auspices of ‘valuation expansion’, we need the cost of capital to come down. [ATTACH type="full" alt="Screen Shot 2024-10-30 at 4.28.31 AM.png"]186865[/ATTACH] Preparing to push higher? Sure, as long as the UST market doesn't blow-up first. If all you look at are the technicals of the stock market, all would seem well. Technically, it looks pretty good. Problem is, that chart pattern means nothing if the UST market goes into convulsions. Currently it is close. If the Fed takes note and adds liquidity, all will be fine. If not and they are asleep at the wheel, then we will have a moment. As I said earlier, probably the only thing keeping a lid on it atm is the really weak POO. The chart of POO suggests further weakness. That could all change very quickly if something happens in the Ukraine or ME. But even more of an issue than the above is the issue of Shale Oil and the cost per barrel of production. Shale oil needs +/- $70/barrel to make it economic to produce. If POO stays below that for any length of time, production will be cut and POO rises on supply issues. Shale cannot just be turned back on. jog on duc [/QUOTE]

Verification