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This is sports-betting based rudimentary trial/learning process based on prediction being higher than implied probability given in the odds.

A bit different to trading based on current conditions. There is not a high level of discretion at the time of betting. The bet is placed before the event. This is not a trading type strategy.

In other cases outcomes are not 100% independent and if psychology comes into it your position sizing strategy could become a consideration.

Although you would be betting less during successes at 5% and more during losses 10%, if the cause of those results were based on psychological aspects. eg when your in tune or tilting.

Wouldn't negative results by self-destruction be magnified if you are betting more?

Wouldn't it be better to stop trading at the point you have recognised the psychological tilting

or

reduce trades to lower levels after losses and higher levels after gains?

Which also works in with fixed fractional position sizing.

If your having a bad day I thought you would want to bet less not more.

Also

I would like to see someone successfully argue that a one NBA/NFL game effects another NBA/NFL game result

My NBA team lost because our states NFL team won their game.

That is like saying the eagles lost because the dockers won their game, even though they are not playing each other.

A bit hard to justify ..

haha

I'm sure someone could justify it.

Hopefully, as much as possible any past game factors, such as fatigue or changes in players etc would be included in the analysis of the game and predicted probability.Once again this would not be due to my decision making/ psychological factors or winning my last bet etc

However here is the graph anyway

[ATTACH=full]69611[/ATTACH]

Not much in it (in my opinion) by using dblhalf position sizing in this limited example....

cheers

<blockquote data-quote="OmegaTrader" data-source="post: 934587" data-attributes="member: 68641">This is sports-betting based rudimentary trial/learning process based on prediction being higher than implied probability given in the odds.&nbsp;A bit different to trading based on current conditions. There is not a high level of&nbsp; discretion at the time of betting. The bet is placed before the event. This is not a trading type strategy.In other cases outcomes are not 100% independent and if psychology comes into it your position sizing strategy could become&nbsp; a consideration.Although you would be betting less during successes at 5% and more during losses 10%, if the cause of those results were based on psychological aspects. eg when your in tune or tilting. Wouldn&#039;t negative&nbsp; results by self-destruction be magnified if you are betting more? Wouldn&#039;t it be better to stop trading at the point you have recognised the psychological tilting or&nbsp;reduce trades to lower levels after losses and higher levels after gains?Which also works in with fixed fractional position sizing.If your having a bad day I thought you would want to bet less not more.Also&nbsp;I would like to see someone successfully argue that&nbsp; a one NBA/NFL game effects another NBA/NFL game resultMy NBA team&nbsp; lost because our states NFL team won their game.That is like saying the eagles lost because the dockers won their game, even though they are not playing each other.A bit hard to justify ..&nbsp;hahaI&#039;m sure someone could justify it.Hopefully, as much as possible any past game factors, such as fatigue or changes in players etc would be included in the analysis of the game and predicted probability.Once again this would not be due to my decision making/ psychological factors or winning my last bet etcHowever here is the graph anyway[ATTACH=full]69611[/ATTACH] Not much in it (in my opinion) by using dblhalf position sizing in this limited example....cheers</blockquote>

[QUOTE="OmegaTrader, post: 934587, member: 68641"] This is sports-betting based rudimentary trial/learning process based on prediction being higher than implied probability given in the odds. A bit different to trading based on current conditions. There is not a high level of discretion at the time of betting. The bet is placed before the event. This is not a trading type strategy. In other cases outcomes are not 100% independent and if psychology comes into it your position sizing strategy could become a consideration. Although you would be betting less during successes at 5% and more during losses 10%, if the cause of those results were based on psychological aspects. eg when your in tune or tilting. Wouldn't negative results by self-destruction be magnified if you are betting more? Wouldn't it be better to stop trading at the point you have recognised the psychological tilting or reduce trades to lower levels after losses and higher levels after gains? Which also works in with fixed fractional position sizing. If your having a bad day I thought you would want to bet less not more. Also I would like to see someone successfully argue that a one NBA/NFL game effects another NBA/NFL game result My NBA team lost because our states NFL team won their game. That is like saying the eagles lost because the dockers won their game, even though they are not playing each other. A bit hard to justify .. haha I'm sure someone could justify it. Hopefully, as much as possible any past game factors, such as fatigue or changes in players etc would be included in the analysis of the game and predicted probability.Once again this would not be due to my decision making/ psychological factors or winning my last bet etc However here is the graph anyway [ATTACH=full]69611[/ATTACH] Not much in it (in my opinion) by using dblhalf position sizing in this limited example.... cheers [/QUOTE]

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