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I think there's a broader point that just because two things are correlated, even if they are highly correlated, does not mean they are the same. It is thus not impossible that the correlation fails or even outright reverses at some point.

OOO and the spot price of crude oil are one example of that since they aren't actually the same thing.

Another example would be that owning shares in several major airlines and trucking companies is a sort of short position in oil. Arguably true if the only thing that happens is the oil price falls but most certainly not true if the reason for the oil price falling is that every airline in the world is all but grounded and people are in lockdown.

Another example would be the idea that the Australian Dollar is tied to commodity prices. No doubt there are possible scenarios where that fails. Etc.

I think the broad lesson here applies far more widely than just to this ETF. Correlations aren't direct ties and can fail which gives rise to the scenario where someone gets it right in terms of the price direction of something but completely fails at profiting from it because they traded an instrument that failed to replicate the price move despite having historically done so.