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Hi WTC,

I agree with everyone who has posted after you.

However I decided to take on the challenge of working the numbers on TLS for my own sake as well as yours and others.

I noticed that the numbers quoted around the net- from Commsec, to AFR, to their annual report- for the raw data we need varies. The annual report should always be your first stop but I even noticed them using numbers they shouldn't have for calculating ROE.

Anyway, the biggest son of a bitch is finding raw data forecast numbers on NPAT and ending equity I have found. Sorry but I got fed up and I'm not going to try forecasting 2011. HOWEVER I did do intrinsic valuations for 2009 and 2010. When you see these numbers you may better understand Roger's estimate.

NB:
I used for 2009
- EqPS 0.998; POR 0.856; ROE 33.3 (or 32.5% in his Tables)
I used for 2010
- EqPS 1.02; POR 0.895; ROE 31.3 (or 30% in his Tables)

10% RR
EOFY 2009- 3.97
EOFY 2010- 3.51

12% RR
EOFY 2009- 3.17
EOFY 2010- 2.84

14% RR
EOFY 2009- 2.65
EOFY 2010- 2.38

You can see the trend is down sp-wise. TLS itself says in it's annual report that it sees 2011 EBITDA declining by a high single digit percentage. If you take that to be 9% (to be conservative) and you treat TLS as a risky stock worthy of a 12-14% margin of safety then you can see around about how Roger got a $2.30-2.50 IV.

It depends on what 2011 NPAT and ending equity forecast numbers he used. Finding that info on the net is nearly impossible unless some kind soul publishes a broker's report pdf to the net and you find it via Google.

Never say die though!

Anyway, that's a lot of info and I hope it helps. It helped me just crunching the numbers and putting it to paper and thinking through it. Seems us 'Roger Readers' need our own support forum to help us fill in the gaps he left for us. So far this forum is the best I've found so I thought I'd contribute.

As others have said here, forecasting a share price is not just about putting numbers into a formula. What Roger has given us IS a massive help but I think we also need to look closely at other things like debt, cash flow, management etc.

I do feel Roger was leading us to believe he was giving us HIS method and that the raw data was easy to find. To see him then say on his blog that "he doesn't use that formula exactly" or on Facebook that "yes, the raw data is hard to find but he pays for his" seems dodgy.

Oh well, I know more now then I did so I'll stop complaining and just work even harder to educate myself.

Good luck!

Phew...sleep i must

<blockquote data-quote="ubtheboss" data-source="post: 582438" data-attributes="member: 33279">Hi WTC,I agree with everyone who has posted after you.However I decided to take on the challenge of working the numbers on TLS for my own sake as well as yours and others.I noticed that the numbers quoted around the net- from Commsec, to AFR, to their annual report- for the raw data we need varies.&nbsp; The annual report should always be your first stop but I even noticed them using numbers they shouldn&#039;t have for calculating ROE.Anyway, the biggest son of a bitch is finding raw data forecast numbers on NPAT and ending equity I have found.&nbsp; Sorry but I got fed up and I&#039;m not going to try forecasting 2011.&nbsp; HOWEVER I did do intrinsic valuations for 2009 and 2010.&nbsp; When you see these numbers you may better understand Roger&#039;s estimate.NB: I used for 2009- EqPS 0.998; POR 0.856; ROE 33.3 (or 32.5% in his Tables)I used for 2010- EqPS 1.02; POR 0.895; ROE 31.3 (or 30% in his Tables)10% RREOFY 2009- 3.97EOFY 2010- 3.5112% RREOFY 2009- 3.17EOFY 2010- 2.8414% RREOFY 2009- 2.65EOFY 2010- 2.38You can see the trend is down sp-wise.&nbsp; TLS itself says in it&#039;s annual report that it sees 2011 EBITDA declining by a high single digit percentage.&nbsp; If you take that to be 9% (to be conservative) and you treat TLS as a risky stock worthy of a 12-14% margin of safety then you can see around about how Roger got a $2.30-2.50 IV.It depends on what 2011 NPAT and ending equity forecast numbers he used.&nbsp; Finding that info on the net is nearly impossible unless some kind soul publishes a broker&#039;s report pdf to the net and you find it via Google.Never say die though! <img src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" class="smilie smilie--sprite smilie--sprite1" alt=":)" title="Smile&nbsp; &nbsp; :)" loading="lazy" data-shortname=":)" />Anyway, that&#039;s a lot of info and I hope it helps.&nbsp; It helped me just crunching the numbers and putting it to paper and thinking through it.&nbsp; Seems us &#039;Roger Readers&#039; need our own support forum to help us fill in the gaps he left for us.&nbsp; So far this forum is the best I&#039;ve found so I thought I&#039;d contribute.As others have said here, forecasting a share price is not just about putting numbers into a formula.&nbsp; What Roger has given us IS a massive help but I think we also need to look closely at other things like debt, cash flow, management etc.I do feel Roger was leading us to believe he was giving us HIS method and that the raw data was easy to find.&nbsp; To see him then say on his blog that &quot;he doesn&#039;t use that formula exactly&quot; or on Facebook that &quot;yes, the raw data is hard to find but he pays for his&quot; seems dodgy.Oh well, I know more now then I did so I&#039;ll stop complaining and just work even harder to educate myself.Good luck!Phew...sleep i must</blockquote>

[QUOTE="ubtheboss, post: 582438, member: 33279"] Hi WTC, I agree with everyone who has posted after you. However I decided to take on the challenge of working the numbers on TLS for my own sake as well as yours and others. I noticed that the numbers quoted around the net- from Commsec, to AFR, to their annual report- for the raw data we need varies. The annual report should always be your first stop but I even noticed them using numbers they shouldn't have for calculating ROE. Anyway, the biggest son of a bitch is finding raw data forecast numbers on NPAT and ending equity I have found. Sorry but I got fed up and I'm not going to try forecasting 2011. HOWEVER I did do intrinsic valuations for 2009 and 2010. When you see these numbers you may better understand Roger's estimate. NB: I used for 2009 - EqPS 0.998; POR 0.856; ROE 33.3 (or 32.5% in his Tables) I used for 2010 - EqPS 1.02; POR 0.895; ROE 31.3 (or 30% in his Tables) 10% RR EOFY 2009- 3.97 EOFY 2010- 3.51 12% RR EOFY 2009- 3.17 EOFY 2010- 2.84 14% RR EOFY 2009- 2.65 EOFY 2010- 2.38 You can see the trend is down sp-wise. TLS itself says in it's annual report that it sees 2011 EBITDA declining by a high single digit percentage. If you take that to be 9% (to be conservative) and you treat TLS as a risky stock worthy of a 12-14% margin of safety then you can see around about how Roger got a $2.30-2.50 IV. It depends on what 2011 NPAT and ending equity forecast numbers he used. Finding that info on the net is nearly impossible unless some kind soul publishes a broker's report pdf to the net and you find it via Google. Never say die though! :) Anyway, that's a lot of info and I hope it helps. It helped me just crunching the numbers and putting it to paper and thinking through it. Seems us 'Roger Readers' need our own support forum to help us fill in the gaps he left for us. So far this forum is the best I've found so I thought I'd contribute. As others have said here, forecasting a share price is not just about putting numbers into a formula. What Roger has given us IS a massive help but I think we also need to look closely at other things like debt, cash flow, management etc. I do feel Roger was leading us to believe he was giving us HIS method and that the raw data was easy to find. To see him then say on his blog that "he doesn't use that formula exactly" or on Facebook that "yes, the raw data is hard to find but he pays for his" seems dodgy. Oh well, I know more now then I did so I'll stop complaining and just work even harder to educate myself. Good luck! Phew...sleep i must [/QUOTE]

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