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Iron Ore: What Recession?
Iron ore prices have been green in 18 of the last 23 trading sessions. It's pretty extraordinary to see prices run so hot amid downbeat data from China:
Steel production in October hit a 5-year low
Iron ore prices have pushed steel margins to near all-time low (i.e. steel mills are not incentivised to produce more)
China house prices fell the most in eight years in October
China housing starts are sitting around 15 year lows
There's no doubt a lot of expectations for stimulus and we've started to see a few trickle through. On Tuesday, the first major Chinese builder reached a restructuring agreement to overhaul its debt. Shares in Sunac jumped as much as 21% to a two-month high.
Fortescue (ASX: FMG) is within an arms reach of all-time highs and trading at levels similar to when iron ore prices were US$200 a tonne back in July 2021. I guess there's two ways to look at this:
Half full: If iron ore is trading at US$130 a tonne with the above economic data. What will things look like when these data points bottom and begin to turn?
Half empty: Iron ore and miners are running into areas of clear resistance. They need to take a breather at the very least.
[ATTACH=full]166049[/ATTACH]
Fortescue weekly chart (Source: TradingView)
Key Events
ASX corporate actions occurring today:
Trading ex-div: Nufarm (NUF) – $0.05, US Student Housing REIT (USQ) – $0.005
Dividends paid: Brickworks (BKW) – $0.42
Listing: None
Economic calendar (AEDT):
7:35 pm: RBA Bullock Speech
12:30 am: US Durable Goods Orders

<blockquote data-quote="eskys" data-source="post: 1252655" data-attributes="member: 87320"><h2>Iron Ore: What Recession?</h2>Iron ore prices have been green in 18 of the last 23 trading sessions. It&#039;s pretty extraordinary to see prices run so hot amid downbeat data from China:<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Steel production in October hit a 5-year low</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Iron ore prices have pushed steel margins to near all-time low (i.e. steel mills are not incentivised to produce more)</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">China house prices fell the most in eight years in October</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">China housing starts are sitting around 15 year lows</li>
</ul>There&#039;s no doubt a lot of expectations for stimulus and we&#039;ve started to see a few trickle through. On Tuesday, the first major Chinese builder reached a restructuring agreement to overhaul its debt. Shares in Sunac jumped as much as 21% to a two-month high.Fortescue (<a href="https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/fmg" target="_blank">ASX: FMG</a>) is within an arms reach of all-time highs and trading at levels similar to when iron ore prices were US$200 a tonne back in July 2021. I guess there&#039;s two ways to look at this:<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Half full: If iron ore is trading at US$130 a tonne with the above economic data. What will things look like when these data points bottom and begin to turn?</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Half empty: Iron ore and miners are running into areas of clear resistance. They need to take a breather at the very least.</li>
</ul>[ATTACH=full]166049[/ATTACH]<h4>Fortescue weekly chart (Source: TradingView)</h4><h3>Key Events</h3>ASX corporate actions occurring today:<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Trading ex-div: Nufarm (NUF) – $0.05, US Student Housing REIT (USQ) – $0.005 </li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Dividends paid: Brickworks (BKW) – $0.42</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Listing: None</li>
</ul>Economic calendar (AEDT):<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">7:35 pm: RBA Bullock Speech</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">12:30 am: US Durable Goods Orders</li>
</ul></blockquote>

[QUOTE="eskys, post: 1252655, member: 87320"] [HEADING=1]Iron Ore: What Recession?[/HEADING] Iron ore prices have been green in 18 of the last 23 trading sessions. It's pretty extraordinary to see prices run so hot amid downbeat data from China: [LIST] [*]Steel production in October hit a 5-year low [*]Iron ore prices have pushed steel margins to near all-time low (i.e. steel mills are not incentivised to produce more) [*]China house prices fell the most in eight years in October [*]China housing starts are sitting around 15 year lows [/LIST] There's no doubt a lot of expectations for stimulus and we've started to see a few trickle through. On Tuesday, the first major Chinese builder reached a restructuring agreement to overhaul its debt. Shares in Sunac jumped as much as 21% to a two-month high. [B]Fortescue [/B]([URL='https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/fmg']ASX: FMG[/URL]) is within an arms reach of all-time highs and trading at levels similar to when iron ore prices were US$200 a tonne back in July 2021. I guess there's two ways to look at this: [LIST] [*][B]Half full[/B]: If iron ore is trading at US$130 a tonne with the above economic data. What will things look like when these data points bottom and begin to turn? [*][B]Half empty[/B]: Iron ore and miners are running into areas of clear resistance. They need to take a breather at the very least. [/LIST] [ATTACH=full]166049[/ATTACH] [HEADING=3]Fortescue weekly chart (Source: TradingView)[/HEADING] [HEADING=2]Key Events[/HEADING] ASX corporate actions occurring today: [LIST] [*][B]Trading ex-div[/B]: Nufarm (NUF) – $0.05, US Student Housing REIT (USQ) – $0.005 [*][B]Dividends paid: [/B]Brickworks (BKW) – $0.42 [*][B]Listing[/B]: None [/LIST] Economic calendar (AEDT): [LIST] [*][B]7:35 pm[/B]: RBA Bullock Speech [*][B]12:30 am[/B]: US Durable Goods Orders [/LIST] [/QUOTE]

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