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The JPMorgan Bull, Bear, and Base Case
Marko Kolanovic, who was once one of Wall Street's most outspoken bulls, has been noticeably far more bearish in recent months. His bull, bear, and base case tables reveal some incredibly interesting storylines over the next three months.
[ATTACH=full]166458[/ATTACH]
Source: JPMorgan
The base case at JPM is currently the bearish view, with Kolanovic's team arguing that "stocks should be an underweight in portfolios given a slowing economy, increasingly constrained consumer, margin compression, valuations, and the potential for Fed-induced economic destruction."
And before you think Kolanovic is a party pooper, you may want to award that title to BCA Research instead. The Montreal-based investment advisory firm is calling for a ~10% earnings downgrade cycle next year and an S&P 500 that could finish the year at just 3,700. If that pans out, that would be an 18% fall in the S&P 500... which also happens to be the gain for the S&P 500 this year. You can read more about the S&P 500 targets (and the wild, wild range between analysts here.)
Key Events
ASX corporate actions occurring today:
Trading ex-div: Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) – $0.34, Technology One (TNE) – $0.14
Dividends paid: Bisalloy Steel (BIS) – $0.10, Rand Mining (RND) – $0.10, Copper Strike (CSE) – $0.02, Acrow (ACF) – $0.02, Kelly Partners (KPG) – $0.004, Janus Henderson (JHG) – $0.61, Tribune Resources (TBR) – $0.20, BlackWall (BWF) – $0.02, US Student Housing REIT (USQ) – $0.005
Listing: Freedom Care Group (FCG) – 11:00 am
Economic calendar (AEDT):
11:30 am: Australia Building Permits (Oct)
11:30 am: Australia Housing Credit (Oct)
12:30 pm: China NBS Manufacturing and Services PMI (Nov)
9:00 pm: Eurozone Inflation (Nev)
11:00 pm: India GDP (Oct)
12:30 am: Canada GDP (Q3)
12:30 am: US Personal Consumption Index (Oct)

<blockquote data-quote="eskys" data-source="post: 1253822" data-attributes="member: 87320"><h2>The JPMorgan Bull, Bear, and Base Case</h2>Marko Kolanovic, who was once one of Wall Street&#039;s most outspoken bulls, has been noticeably far more bearish in recent months. His bull, bear, and base case tables reveal some incredibly interesting storylines over the next three months.[ATTACH=full]166458[/ATTACH]<h4>Source: JPMorgan</h4>The base case at JPM is currently the bearish view, with Kolanovic&#039;s team arguing that &quot;stocks should be an underweight in portfolios given a slowing economy, increasingly constrained consumer, margin compression, valuations, and the potential for Fed-induced economic destruction.&quot;And before you think Kolanovic is a party pooper, you may want to award that title to BCA Research instead. The Montreal-based investment advisory firm is calling for a ~10% earnings downgrade cycle next year and an S&amp;P 500 that could finish the year at just 3,700. If that pans out, that would be an 18% fall in the S&amp;P 500... which also happens to be the gain for the S&amp;P 500 this year. You can read more about the S&amp;P 500 targets (<a href="https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/where-will-the-s-p-500-finish-2024-some-analysts-are-miles-apart" target="_blank">and the wild, wild range between analysts here</a>.)<h3>Key Events</h3>ASX corporate actions occurring today:<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Trading ex-div: Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) – $0.34, Technology One (TNE) – $0.14</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Dividends paid: Bisalloy Steel (BIS) – $0.10, Rand Mining (RND) – $0.10, Copper Strike (CSE) – $0.02, Acrow (ACF) – $0.02, Kelly Partners (KPG) – $0.004, Janus Henderson (JHG) – $0.61, Tribune Resources (TBR) – $0.20, BlackWall (BWF) – $0.02, US Student Housing REIT (USQ) – $0.005 </li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">Listing: Freedom Care Group (FCG) – 11:00 am</li>
</ul>Economic calendar (AEDT):<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">11:30 am: Australia Building Permits (Oct)</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">11:30 am: Australia Housing Credit (Oct)</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">12:30 pm: China NBS Manufacturing and Services PMI (Nov)</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">9:00 pm: Eurozone Inflation (Nev)</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">11:00 pm: India GDP (Oct)</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">12:30 am: Canada GDP (Q3)</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">12:30 am: US Personal Consumption Index (Oct)</li>
</ul></blockquote>

[QUOTE="eskys, post: 1253822, member: 87320"] [HEADING=1][B]The JPMorgan Bull, Bear, and Base Case[/B][/HEADING] Marko Kolanovic, who was once one of Wall Street's most outspoken bulls, has been noticeably far more bearish in recent months. His bull, bear, and base case tables reveal some incredibly interesting storylines over the next three months. [ATTACH=full]166458[/ATTACH] [HEADING=3]Source: JPMorgan[/HEADING] The base case at JPM is currently the bearish view, with Kolanovic's team arguing that "stocks should be an underweight in portfolios given a slowing economy, increasingly constrained consumer, margin compression, valuations, and the potential for Fed-induced economic destruction." And before you think Kolanovic is a party pooper, you may want to award that title to BCA Research instead. The Montreal-based investment advisory firm is calling for a ~10% earnings downgrade cycle next year and an S&P 500 that could finish the year at just 3,700. If that pans out, that would be an 18% fall in the S&P 500... which also happens to be the gain for the S&P 500 this year. You can read more about the S&P 500 targets ([URL='https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/where-will-the-s-p-500-finish-2024-some-analysts-are-miles-apart']and the wild, wild range between analysts here[/URL].) [HEADING=2]Key Events[/HEADING] ASX corporate actions occurring today: [LIST] [*][B]Trading ex-div[/B]: Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) – $0.34, Technology One (TNE) – $0.14 [*][B]Dividends paid: [/B]Bisalloy Steel (BIS) – $0.10, Rand Mining (RND) – $0.10, Copper Strike (CSE) – $0.02, Acrow (ACF) – $0.02, Kelly Partners (KPG) – $0.004, Janus Henderson (JHG) – $0.61, Tribune Resources (TBR) – $0.20, BlackWall (BWF) – $0.02, US Student Housing REIT (USQ) – $0.005 [*][B]Listing[/B]: Freedom Care Group (FCG) – 11:00 am [/LIST] Economic calendar (AEDT): [LIST] [*][B]11:30 am[/B]: Australia Building Permits (Oct) [*][B]11:30 am[/B]: Australia Housing Credit (Oct) [*][B]12:30 pm[/B]: China NBS Manufacturing and Services PMI (Nov) [*][B]9:00 pm[/B]: Eurozone Inflation (Nev) [*][B]11:00 pm[/B]: India GDP (Oct) [*][B]12:30 am[/B]: Canada GDP (Q3) [*][B]12:30 am[/B]: US Personal Consumption Index (Oct) [/LIST] [/QUOTE]

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