XAO Technical Analysis

[Chipp]

Reporting Calendar fwiw

 

[Logique2]

We'll try to go back on topic, sort of .

The Aussie market on average is definitely underperforming in the long term.

View attachment 182384

Thanks TIm,
yes that is an astute observation, been watching this for a while

 

[Sean K]

This has tanked through several layers of support over the past month. Almost a meltdown. Ugly stuff.



The 8000-8200 area might be some support on the 5 yr weekly.

 

[divs4ever]

This has tanked through several layers of support over the past month. Almost a meltdown. Ugly stuff.

View attachment 194833

The 8000-8200 area might be some support on the 5 yr weekly.

View attachment 194834

see my selection of 12,500 for the XAO competition is working ! ( reverse psychology at play )

maybe i should go on US TV and replace Cramer ... LOL

 

[Sean K]

see my selection of 12,500 for the XAO competition is working ! ( reverse psychology at play )

maybe i should go on US TV and replace Cramer ... LOL

I jokingly put up 5000 as my target. On the way...

 

[divs4ever]

I jokingly put up 5000 as my target. On the way...

but the prize MIGHT go to you

you never know there are still some take-overs in progress and some stocks are still at crazy valuations ( are with unimpressive forecasts or no guidance at all )

 

[Knobby22]

I jokingly put up 5000 as my target. On the way...

I think I'm 2nd lowest at 7600. Happy to split the difference.

 

[Sean K]

I think I'm 2nd lowest at 7600. Happy to split the difference.

We're looking good at the moment.

We haven't had a correction like this in a while. Maybe since Apr-Jun 22.

Might be a longer term opportunity.

 

[divs4ever]

We're looking good at the moment.

We haven't had a correction like this in a while. Maybe since Apr-Jun 22.

Might be a longer term opportunity.

View attachment 195174

View attachment 195175

am waving my toes at the water ( close to the action on two LICs ,) , but playing VERY carefully

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks @TimeISmoney , and just to completely bring us back on track the title of the thread is

XAO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
So with that in mind I did some charts of the XAO , long , medium and short term using 10 year monthly, 5 year weekly and YTD daily timeframes and some simple moving averages of varying lengths to try and decide whether the recent pullback might make it necessary for those of us who enjoy spending money to withdraw from supporting the muppets at the ASX or maybe pile a bit more money on in anticipation of a good bull run to 10,000. The SMA's are just appropriate to the timeframes and you can do your own as you wish or other MA's such as EMA.
Also can replies leave out the following words if possible.
1. Free carry
2. I bought at
3. Apple
4. Berkshire
5. Recent buys
6. US or China
7. I once
And finally
8. The names Warren and Charlie.

It is a TA thread which is technical and words such as the above have no place in a technical thread on the XAO.
So here are the charts going from longterm to medium to short, with a commentary under each chart.
View attachment 182397
A long term chart showing a nice Support/Resistance line at about 7840 which is close to where we were at last week. I feel any significant break through this downwards should give cause for pause. The 50 and 200 SMA are moving in unison and the 50 was only breached down by price during the first year of Covid. Even the RSI looks harmless not suggesting any divergence nor oversold nor overbought. On the face of it there is no need to panic just on this chart as generally there has been a gradual bullish move gaining 60%. There were a few lost years though and large sell offs and those prone to panic and hope would have been hammered.


View attachment 182398
Here it can be seen that a full 18 mo. after Covid in July 2021 the recovery stalls at the resistance line 7840. I'm using a SMA of 15 and 40 and price then ranges between about 6640 and 7840. This is a gain of approx 18% which is ok from Aug 2019 before Covid to say April 2021 but then it tails off down to about 6700 later that year. The whole run of the ASX since then until January this year has been pretty lousy really. Could any technicals have helped. Not the SMA's, as they followed but didn't signal between each other nor price. When they appeared to there followed whipsaws rather than a clean break above 7840. So at best you would have made a gain of 20%. The RSI did show some divergence from July to Dec 2021 which an astute investor may have used to exit but where to re-enter would have been problematic. So an investor entering at Aug 2021 would have gained nothing to the beginning of this year when the XAO broke up through 7840 which brings me to the next chart.



View attachment 182399

The YTD dally chart over 8 mo. shows not much of a gain following last week's falls. The MA's are a 10 and a 30 SMA's. Will it fall further. It is just on the medium term support again at 7840. If it holds and bounces up could this be the bull run we have all been waiting for. Will it sink? The MA's again have not been very helpful as when ever there was a signal getting out and in for the next crossover signal made no profit.. The rise in March diverged with the RSI in late March but on other price movement I would have ignored it. Price action with steady volume would indicate that not much will happen until it does. Anyways it's not the end of the world and if the XAO does move up and even if it doesn't I'm cashed up again and will continue investing on the ASX.

All in all I found the Support/Resistance line at 7840 to be the best of all the technical indicators for the XAO apart from just "follow the trend" when it moved up or "panic" when something like Covid happens.

gg

FYI.

A good read.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

A quote from ft.com yesterday

"When stock markets really panic, analysis can only take you so far. Logic fails and emotion takes control."

And thus the chart says it all. Even for for those new to charting and technical analysis the action on the right speaks for itself. The All Ordinaries is in a world of pain.

The XAO has lost 134 points with just on 45 minutes to the close. The low for the past 12 mo. year was 7743. It is now 7969. Today is Wednesday. Even if there is some recovery tomorow which I doubt, Friday will see further selling as people do not like bringing worry home on the weekend.

Anyone who can predict a bottom is just guessing. It may reverse next week or go to sh*t.

The chart.



gg

 

[Logique2]

Excuse me if I don't go into panic mode just yet,
'..Logic fails and emotion takes control..' [GG]

Under, 5 years chart SPX from Google 11 March:


'

 

[Sean K]

Not sure about a bear market.

I think we're close to 10% off and hitting some support and have had a small bounce. Maybe that's it?

But Macquarie are thinking bear.

 

[Knobby22]

Not sure about a bear market.

I think we're close to 10% off and hitting some support and have had a small bounce. Maybe that's it?

But Macquarie are thinking bear.

View attachment 195500View attachment 195501View attachment 195499

Tend to agree.
End of the Trump rally which started from August.
Start of the bear rally if that support is broken. It may not happen this month, I was always thinking April.

I think we have to see all the starry eyed believers get caught in a bull trap first, this is more relevant to the US market though.

That said, with the ASX, I think we have more than halfway fallen, unless there is panic.

 

[Logique2]

It's all about Trump hey Knobby..
Index Futures anyone..

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

This is the best I could find @Logique2 for the SPI 200 June 2025. Via the ASX site.

If there is a code that Commsec will recognise let me know and I'll post a historical chart. I had no luck there looking for futures.



gg

 

[Sean K]

Back to where we were 4 years ago.

You'd expect these line to be a support zone but who knows when panic sets in. Not sure if that's really happened yet though. We know long term the market goes up, unless this is the end of capitalism, which is unlikely.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

How did we finish today @Sean K . Any projections to the down side from your charting?

gg

 

[Sean K]

How did we finish today @Sean K . Any projections to the down side from your charting?

gg

Technically, that support zone should be good. It looks pretty solid. But as Radge does, you stop promoting your system when it fails. TA supposed to encapsulate emotion, but maybe only to a point. Perhaps there's emotion and then irrational. The market over and undershoots, as you know. I think we went overs recently. Maybe we'll go unders now. Potentially another dead cat around here and then re-evaluate. I don't think anything happening on right now goes against the gold narrative. Might even enhance it.

 

[divs4ever]

Technically, that support zone should be good. It looks pretty solid. But as Radge does, you stop promoting your system when it fails. TA supposed to encapsulate emotion, but maybe only to a point. Perhaps there's emotion and then irrational. The market over and undershoots, as you know. I think we went overs recently. Maybe we'll go unders now. Potentially another dead cat around here and then re-evaluate. I don't think anything happening on right now goes against the gold narrative. Might even enhance it.

so where did all the money go .. to repay debt ( margin loans ) , bonds or precious metals , or less likely to the sidelines

if we knew that .... we might have an edge ( into bonds followed by a rate-cut would be interesting )