XAO Technical Analysis

[dyna]

when panic sets in.

I'm giving this a lot of thought but I'm just not seeing it . We've all been here before and everybody from Warren " Cash " Buffett down , has been banging on about an overpriced market , for a long time , now . The pros are just like the rest of us , cashed up and waiting for a bottom . Trump or his Republican heirs will soon change tack if / when the tariffs begin to hurt the U. S. economy .
It ain't the end of the world . Never is . The sharemarket always recovers . The hard part is trying to pick the bottom of this dip .

 

[divs4ever]

I'm giving this a lot of thought but I'm just not seeing it . We've all been here before and everybody from Warren " Cash " Buffett down , has been banging on about an overpriced market , for a long time , now . The pros are just like the rest of us , cashed up and waiting for a bottom . Trump or his Republican heirs will soon change tack if / when the tariffs begin to hurt the U. S. economy .
It ain't the end of the world . Never is . The sharemarket always recovers . The hard part is trying to pick the bottom of this dip .

not so cashed up but more cash coming from take-over payouts and MAYBE a property sale

i won't guarantee a recovery in my lifetime ( this could take ten or more years to untangle )

BUT there should be spots of real value apparent soon , where you will do well whether the market recovers or stays flat

the BIG danger is another K-shaped recovery where the undeserving get saved at the expense of everyone else

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I just thought I'd put up a 10 year monthly chart to see where we've come from and show some support/resistance area. The only event comparable to this man made fall which appears set to continue is the fall at the beginning of the Covid Pandemic in 2020. The response and course of recovery from that event may turn out to be similar to the events of the past few days where tariffs have imposed a relative supply chain blockage and possible flight to self preservation for countries and market.

To my eyes a fall to 6000 for the XAO is quite possible, giving a fall of 25% from present levels. the fall was 2860 approx from the beginning of February to the end of March. Say 3000.

This would take us down to 5000 from present levels. It is quite possible though 7000 will provide sufficient support which will be a fall of just 12.5%

Optimists would say this all poppycock and the Bronze Moron will save the day by pulling a hat out of his rabbit.



gg

 

[Country Lad]

 

[peter2]

There's a few lower levels that may provide some support but the big one is at 7000. I can't see the XAO going that low without a world calamity (WW3).

Our banks may go a little lower if the RBA reduces rates to stimulate the economy. Our large cap resource companies may go a little lower as the world economy slows. So maybe 5 - 10% lower at most.

Only 12% of the All Ords went up this week.

 

[Country Lad]

P&F showing the real extent of the retracement, for the very few who are interested

 

[peter2]

Of course we are. What's that, a 16 letter word starting with an "X" and ending in an "O".

Shows the same few minor support levels and the big one at 7000.

 

[divs4ever]

I just thought I'd put up a 10 year monthly chart to see where we've come from and show some support/resistance area. The only event comparable to this man made fall which appears set to continue is the fall at the beginning of the Covid Pandemic in 2020. The response and course of recovery from that event may turn out to be similar to the events of the past few days where tariffs have imposed a relative supply chain blockage and possible flight to self preservation for countries and market.

To my eyes a fall to 6000 for the XAO is quite possible, giving a fall of 25% from present levels. the fall was 2860 approx from the beginning of February to the end of March. Say 3000.

This would take us down to 5000 from present levels. It is quite possible though 7000 will provide sufficient support which will be a fall of just 12.5%

Optimists would say this all poppycock and the Bronze Moron will save the day by pulling a hat out of his rabbit.

View attachment 196812

gg

there is a lot of gearing ( at relatively sensible levels ) and a lot of over-leveraging ( at batsh*t crazy levels )

and the markets runs on confidence .. until it doesn't

i read a story it was JP Morgan himself that turned around the market during the great depression , is there a similar buyer like that this time ( Buffett likes to keep his buys low key , so less likely him despite his war-chest )

i am just playing it with the cards i have

BTW about the only chance of Trump pulling the rabbit out is if he or a well-known family member walked onto the trading floor and bought a hundred billion in selected stocks in plain sight

this should be a long hard grind , or another crazy explosion of debt ( to bail the markets out )

 

[Sean K]

Now that the 7800 ish level has gone maybe these lext lines will hold.

The first one @peter2 s 7000 mark and the top pre-Covid. There might be enough world calamity for that to be realised. Although, Trump could start negotiating tomorrow and the music starts again.

@Garpal Gumnut s 6000 is a long way away.

God help us if my 5000 yearly prediction gets close.

 

[divs4ever]

God help us if my 5000 yearly prediction gets close.

no ... it would be up to members to help themselves

they should be partly ( financially ) educated by now

and i have been warning of creating strategies for the 'unthinkable ' for years

so many things MIGHT go wrong this year , a house of cards is way too generous

 

[Knobby22]

Now that the 7800 ish level has gone maybe these lext lines will hold.

The first one @peter2 s 7000 mark and the top pre-Covid. There might be enough world calamity for that to be realised. Although, Trump could start negotiating tomorrow and the music starts again.

@Garpal Gumnut s 6000 is a long way away.

God help us if my 5000 yearly prediction gets close.

View attachment 197145

I honestly think it is becoming likely.
The depression got stocks to 10% of the peak.
Trump isn't backing off, just going harder. we shall see soon. If he decides to screw over Europe then I think 5000 is reasonable.

 

[divs4ever]

I honestly think it is becoming likely.
The depression got stocks to 10% of the peak.
Trump isn't backing off, just going harder. we shall see soon. If he decides to screw over Europe then I think 5000 is reasonable.

well the EU has had subsidies and import restrictions for decades

the 'who me ' approach doesn't wash with me , so unlikely to fool Trump either

the BIG problem is the EU has some much US investment ( and military infrastructure ) walking away will not be easy