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still_in_school

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BHP - Possible Short..

Hi Guys,

been away from the forum for a short while, though havent stopped trading.. just a few trading suggestions for tomorrow...

BHP Chart...

This morning open at $16.96
Todays close at $16.63

Have entered this position with bought puts.. $17.00 March Puts

though exit targets are sharp 1-2 day continal drops to $16.04 to $16.00

Retracement levels - 61.8 % - $16.34
Retracement levels - 50.0 % - $16.04

Cheers,
sis

ps.. will add some further technical indicators, plus some candle stick explanation..
 

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  • BHP - Short.GIF
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Re: BHP - Possible Short..

On the technical chart below..

* the candlesticks are showing a rejection/ or indecision of the market direction.. confirmation of this is normally by doji candlesticks.. to add further more accuracy the doji's in this chart example are both bullish and bearish candlestick patterns...

* today candlestick pattern is a bearish dominant black candle..

* candlestick patterns are pulsing along the upper bollinger band..

* volume is indicating - low volume of trading over last couple days (this is typical for a bearish trade) buyers are holding onto there stock, in belief prices will hold

* stochastics - have turned negative and have crossed a few days earlier..

* RSI - have also turned negative.

* the MACD which is not shown, has also turned negative and is als showing negative divergence..

History also shows, that BHP will normally gap down from the mid point and base of the previous candlestick and quite accurately trades towards retracement levels..

For this trade, possible trading instruments, could be Short CFD, Bought Puts, Written Calls or short selling...

Cheers,
sis

ps.. please only take my charting and technical analysis as an assumption for possible future trades..
 

Attachments

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Re: BHP - Possible Short..

Your a game man SIS.

Maybe fortune favors the brave.
 
Re: BHP - Possible Short..

Thanks Techa,

BHP just manage to break through that $16.50 Support level.. still bearish out looks for BHP, through looking at a technical analysis angle.. BHP still has further more to go to expected retracement levels...

Cheers,
sis
 
Re: BHP - Possible Short..

Hi Guys,

just re-evaluated BHP chart & technical analysis, have exited out of my bought pulls..

BHP did come very close to retracement levels.. though both BHP and RIO and the resources section is showing a bounce..

might be pre-mature exits, but technicals are indicating otherwises...

Cheers,
sis
 
I was reading today about predicted price weakness for BHP in the next week. I don't hold any yet. Who might see any further price weakness as a good opportunity to buy? Generally I'm probably a bit negative on the resource stocks due to their well known booms and busts. I'm aware of the China story, but am realistic enough to know that it may not last beyond 2005.

The last round of price negotiations soured the relationship between BHP and China. Knowing the business style of the Chinese, I feel BHP may have done itself some damage long term.

Who sees RIO as a better alternative BHP long term?
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

Prudential have cut the US listed securities to underweight and the price target from $30US to $18US

They say the price paid for WMR is too high in the current market
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

I dont hold any BHP or RIO, but basically most of the current price weekness is associated with what happens to metal prices on the LME (look at http://kitcometals.com/). Also BHP is in the oil market, and POO is droping as well at the moment: http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL&o=&a=D&z=610x300&d=LOW&b=bar&st=

As for metal prices, I think the RIO CEO summed it up best when he said there will be a lot of volatility until the end of the year with prices then stabalizing. As for POO however, I suspect that the supply / demand equation doesn't quite warrant the current prices (I may be completely wrong of course).

Are RIO and BHP currently overvalued? - I don't think so, and neither do the real experts - the people running the companies. If RIO thought itself overvalued, why would it be participating in the share buyback. And BHP/WMR - if BHP thought itself overvalued, it would have offerred WMR holders a share swap rather than cash.

When to buy bhp/rio? Sorry I can't tell but I think that a short term minimum might be $15.50-$16. Fust a few thoughts...
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

I wouldn't buy BHP or RIO today unless you see a really significant recovery in the 3-4pm period that brings the SP back to yesterdays range...
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

I think it's a good time to buy in.

Energy/Resources sector has been hit hard but is still very profitable.
 
BHP set to go up?

BHP seems to be uncharateristically moving up very strongly for intra-day. I took a look at the options and there seems to be a lot buying for calls.

Sorry if there was another BHP thread, couldn't find it.
 
Re: BHP set to go up?

DTM said:
BHP seems to be uncharateristically moving up very strongly for intra-day. I took a look at the options and there seems to be a lot buying for calls.

Sorry if there was another BHP thread, couldn't find it.
Click to expand...

I traded this stock a few weeks ago and got out at $18.60 with a profit.
I bought again yesterday at $18.32 and it has shot up today. I believe it is going to go up more based on its exposure to uranium. It's oil revenue is high and reporting season will be good for this one. This is a stock still lower than the previous peak, though fundamentally better with more earnings potential.

This post is aptly named I feel. This is not a ramp! :bigun2:
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

Somethings up!!! BHP up 35cents at $19 and looks like to climb steadily. I've already sold 20 of my ITM call options and was looking to sell 20 OTM call options when someone placed an undisclosed buy amount at the front of the que. Its rare to see that happen and it could become interesting.

News has it that they've developed a new mine venture with a Japanese Steel company worth 5.7 billion.

BHP Billiton signs Japanese steel deal
July 21, 2005 - 10:44AM


BHP Billiton has signed a 11-year supply deal with one of Japan's leading steel mills, JFE Steel, worth $5.69 billion.

The iron ore will come from BHP's Yandi mine in Western Australia supplying 16 million tonnes a year.

JFE Steel will take a 20 per cent stake in a sub lease of the Yandi mine.

This BHP's first joint venture with a Japanese steelmaker.

BHP president of Western Australia iron ore, Ian Ashby, said the deal would help ensure BHP maintains its share of the growing iron ore market.
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

DTM said:
I've already sold 20 of my ITM call options and was looking to sell 20 OTM call options when someone placed an undisclosed buy amount at the front of the que. Its rare to see that happen and it could become interesting.
Click to expand...

Oops, it just got swallowed up.
 
BHP rolling over?

BHP looking like on the verge of rolling over , gave a sell sig on my daily swingsetup recently . if i was a long term holder might lighten a little

bris
 

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Re: OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT Alerts!!

brisvegas said:
BHP looking like on the verge of rolling over , gave a sell sig on my daily swingsetup recently . if i was a long term holder might lighten a little

bris
Click to expand...

There appears to be some moderate support at 19.50, previous high. I hold and I think that's a logical stop level, which means the instos may try to shakeout the small hands imo. So 19 to 19.50 must survive.
 
Re: BHP - Price weakness

Any thoughts? 3 steady gains in a row without the rediculous pogo-ing thats been going on the last month. Is it getting back on track or is it a last gasp before heamoraging? I'm only new to this game and my charting is pretty crap at the best of times but I'm thinking if it goes through 2080 it could be the start of a steady up trend.

John

DISCLAIMER
I suck
 
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