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DDD Feb 2024

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Shocking internets today:

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Market puked after Fed says no rate cuts in March.

Mr fff:

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The (immediately) above chart is the China NIIP position.

With China moving to support it's asset prices, a selldown of US assets to repatriate money will puch UST rates higher.

As always, keep any eye on the bond market, especially its liquidity.

jog on
duc
 

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So Yellen released the QRA report (attached).

I have not had time to read the report, work commitments this week have been particularly heavy. However, the Treasury seems to have reduced the issue of Bills.

Which means, more Notes and Bonds. This seems bizarre. With interest rates high, why would you want to lock in a higher rate for longer (this of course assumes that the Fed does pivot eventually) rather than keep rolling over faster on falling rates, thereby reducing your interest payments which are now pushing through the $1T mark annually.

If China does start selling down UST to support their market, then the vol. in the Bond market will explode.

Bonds today are rallying (lower yields). Odd no?

The BTD seem to be out in force across the board.

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Lots of supply in the market.

I'll be reading that QRA report in full over the w/e just in case there are nuggets in there.

jog on
duc
 

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Oil News:

Friday, February 2nd, 2024

Speculation has overshadowed market fundamentals this week, with unsubstantiated reports of an impending ceasefire between Israel and Palestine dragging Brent futures below $80 per barrel again. On the fundamental side, with OPEC+ rolling over its policy and refusing to change its pre-set course, unforeseen refinery outages in the United States might have an even more lasting impact on prices by weakening US demand even further.

US Senate Seeks to Overturn Biden’s LNG Pause. The US House of Representatives will seek to overturn the Biden administration’s halt on new LNG project approvals next month, accusing the White House of appeasing radical climate activists, although it is unlikely to get past the Senate.

OPEC+ Sticks to Course, Flags March Meeting. This week’s OPEC+ ministerial meeting made no changes to the oil group’s production policy, with participating top officials indicating they will meet again in early March to decide on an extension of the 2.2 million b/d cuts into Q2.

BP’s Whiting Refinery Shutdown Rattles Midwest. A transformer failure caused a plant-wide power outage at BP’s (NYSE:BP) Whiting refinery in Indiana, forcing the UK oil major to halt all operations at the Midwest’s largest downstream asset, boasting a capacity of 435,000 b/d.

Westinghouse Excluded from Czech Nuclear Tender. In another blow to US nuclear firm Westinghouse, the Czech government has excluded it from its tender to build a new 1,200 MW reactor saying it failed to fulfil its conditions, leaving only Korea’s KHNP and France’s EDF.

Saudi Aramco Mulls $10 Billion Share Sale. Bloomberg reports that Saudi Arabia’s national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is considering a secondary share offering worth up to $10 billion as early as February, capitalizing on its market value of more than $2 trillion.

Germany to Sell Nationalized Gas Giant Soon. The German government is considering selling part of its 99% stake in distressed utility firm Uniper which Berlin spent $15 billion on to bring back to life, although market participants believe Germany would need to offer discounts.

Diverting Tankers Turn to Fast Steaming. Tankers that are diverting around the Cape of Good Hope have been increasingly fast steaming, sailing above normal speeds, to cut back on delivery delays, with container ships sailing at 22 knots, boosting marine fuel demand in Africa further.

Arctic Hurricanes Boost Scandinavia’s Wind. Norway registered the highest-ever wind speeds this week as hurricane-like wind gusts swept through Scandinavia, with record wind generation in the Nordics exceeding 29 GW and even turning power prices negative for a few hours.

Shell Plays Down M&A Pressures. The CEO of Shell (LON:SHEL) Wael Sawan indicated the UK-based oil major is not tempted to join the US shale patch’s acquisition frenzy, whilst its Q4 results surpassed analysts’ expectations at $7.3 billion despite multi-billion impairments.

Qatar Seeks to Expand Oil Output. QatarEnergy awarded service contracts worth $6.2 billion to develop the third phase of its key oil-producing asset, the offshore Al Shaheen field overlying its vast gas reserves in the sea, eyeing a production hike of about 100,000 b/d by 2027-2028.

India to See Coal Power Bonanza in 2024. India will commission an additional 13.9 GW of coal-powered generation capacity this year, marking the highest annual increase since 2019 and more than triple 2023 additions, as last year’s electricity demand surged 11% year-on-year.

Glencore Inks China Term Deal for Colombia Coal. More Atlantic Basin coal will be sent to China after Glencore (LON:GLEN) agreed to sell most of the production from its giant Cerrejon mine in Colombia to Chinese utility buyers and traders, up to 10-15 million tonnes across 2024.

Mining Giant Lobby for Silver to Become Critical. Top executives of 19 mining companies in Canada have addressed a letter to the country’s Energy Ministry saying that silver should be requalified as a critical mineral, prompting similar calls in the United States, too.

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While uranium may well be on fire, I like copper.

Banks have had a tailwind with BTFP. Over. No more free money for those losers. The Japanese bank highlights just how badly managed banks are and how hidden their liabilities are.


The further question is: with the ending of BTFP, how will liquidity be effected in Repo markets? Will the Fed back off on QT? The Treasury has released the TBAC, which I will read this w/e, which should give a heads up.

What should also be a concern is the USD. It has jumped. Why? Demand. Demand for USD is always a liquidity issue. Watching rates is backward. Rates jump because of USD.

jog on
duc
 
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From the QRA

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Interest payments increased by 20%

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Deficits will be higher moving forward as no cuts are forthcoming currently to the big expenditures.

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Now Yellen has decided to keep the maturities longer (on average) and cut back on Bill issue. See the last chart for the impact.

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Foreign buyers continue to step away.

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If there is a recession, this will get worse by some magnitudes.

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Then combine the Fed's: higher for longer with the Treasury longer average maturity and you have a recipe for disaster.

So why cut back on the Bills?

Because stocks are high again. Tax revenue increases with a high market. Some 90% of tax revenues come from the market (Options awards etc).

To keep the stock market high, you need to keep the USD weak. Expect the Treasury to keep the USD weak. Any prolonged strength in USD will drive stocks lower. Tax collection is pretty much over by April. So stocks need to stay strong until at least April, maintained by a weak USD.

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The current strength (rally) in the USD cannot be allowed to continue. Look for subterfuges to weaken it.

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What is RUM?

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Now Mr fff did pick out of the gate back in the day. I have no idea if he held it (probably not) but he can come up with some very early interesting picks.

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jog on
duc
 
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Banks provide the leverage to the Hedge Funds in the Repo market. The Repo market rehypothecates Treasuries, possibly x4 or x5 times. This is known as VofC (Velocity of Collateral). Thus $100M of collateral = $400M or $500M. Leverage on leverage. This relies on the fungibility of the securities. Not a problem until it is.

Currently, the Fed is rolling off UST via QT to schedule. What is not rolling off are MBS due to a number of issues, the primary issue being no-one is repaying their mortgages due to the vast quantity held at lower rates.

Would Hedge Funds be tempted by that trade?

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So we know that Yellen shifted UST issue back from Bills to Coupons (longer dated) from the QRA. I suspect because there was starting to be a shortage of longer dated UST paper, which, could (preference for on-the-run-paper) create shortages within the Repo market. A problem in the Repo market causes blow-ups in the UST market, which collapses the stock market.

Powell appeared on the US 60mins programme. Stated the US was on an unsustainable fiscal path. This is being attributed for the selloff today.

Interesting, having stated that, why the Fed has kept rates high. The higher for longer increases interest payments accelerating the fiscal fiasco.

Could it be that cutting rates quickly, triggers the long basis trade to fall apart?

Run out of space for charts...but USD up today again.

jog on
duc
 
Oil News:

As India holds its second-ever India Energy Week in Goa, the world’s leading oil exporters have flocked to discuss new fields with a country that is poised to overcome China next year as the world’s fastest-growing source of oil demand.

- Prime Minister Narendra Modi pledged that India would see an investment of $67 billion in its energy sector over the next 5 years, seeking to almost double its refining capacity from 254 mtpa to 450 mtpa by 2030.

- India’s 2070 net zero target provides Delhi with more time to prepare for a renewables-based future, with PM Modi expecting clean energy (including nuclear) to account for 50% of generation by 2030.

- The energy week has been marked by the huge participation of Russian companies as Russia remains the largest oil supplier to India accounting for one-third of imports, although Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been increasingly visible, too.

Market Movers

- Canada’s offshore regulator NLOPB confirmed that Norway’s Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) Cambriol G-92 discovery in offshore Newfoundland contains some 340 million barrels of oil, one of the top finds of 2023.

- French energy major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) is exploring the sale of a 50% stake in a portfolio of wind and solar projects in Europe and the United States, seeking to share the brunt of higher capital costs.

- US LNG developer Tellurian (NYSEAMERICAN:TELL) is reportedly exploring the sale of its Haynesville upstream business to boost the financing of its embattled 27.6 mtpa capacity Driftwood LNG project.

Tuesday, February 06, 2024

Oil prices have been trending sideways over the past couple of days, dropping lower last week upon rumors that a Gaza ceasefire is imminent, and failing to bounce back significantly despite tensions running high in the Middle East. Saudi Aramco’s timid OSPs for March might cap the upside for price recovery as the markets are focused on looming demand weakness again. That said, should Blinken’s Middle East trip fail to yield any discernible results, the geopolitical premium might kick in again.

BP Caps Spending, Boosts Buybacks to Win Over Investors. UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) posted higher-than-expected Q4 earnings, with profits declining slightly to $3 billion as the firm’s new management capped capex this year to $16 billion and promised $14 billion in share buybacks in 2024-2025.

Shell Signs Term Deal with Dangote. UK energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) agreed to build a gas supply facility in Nigeria to feed a fertilizer plant owned by Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man who is also building the continent’s largest refinery, signing a 10-year deal to be sourced from the Iseni field.

China Tightens Rules for Carbon Emitters. The Chinese government tightened rules for the country’s industrial polluters as it seeks to extend carbon allowances to the aluminum and cement industry this year, cutting future carbon allocations in case companies withhold or misreport emissions.

Germany to Spend $17 Billion on Hydrogen Subsidies. The German government announced its plans to subsidize gas power plants to be reconfigured for hydrogen, allocating $17 billion for that purpose and aiming for at least 10 GW of capacity that could be fully switched to hydrogen in 2035-2040.

TotalEnergies’ Namibia Portfolio Shines Brighter. France’s oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) has made another commercial discovery in Namibia’s ultra-deepwater offshore zone, with the Mangetti-1X exploration well expanding the drillable territory of the multi-billion-barrel Venus giant find.

Billionaires’ Favourite Miner Finds Copper. KoBold Metals, a metal mining startup backed by Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, has reportedly found a huge copper deposit in the African country of Zambia, the largest deposit in a century, with a potential to produce 400,000 tonnes per year at its peak.

Rare Earths See Promise in H2 2024. Market analysts are turning increasingly bullish on rare earth prices into the second half of this year, with China poised to lower production quotas and EV demand for permanent magnets flipping rare earth elements such as praseodymium oxide into deficit.

Poland’s Refinery Sale to Saudi Could Be Below Value. The Polish Audit office found that as the previous Morawiecki government merged two national oil companies PKN Orlen and Lotos, the sales of Lotos assets to Saudi Aramco and others might have been some $1.25 billion below market value.

China Boosts LNG Imports Ahead of Lunar New Year. Chinese buyers bought 7.77 million tonnes of LNG in January, the fifth highest monthly reading on record and up 28% year-on-year, stocking up on liquefied gas before the Lunar New Year holidays amidst JKM prices still below $10 per mmBtu.

As World Cools to ESG, EU Set to Tighten Emission Targets. The European Commission is set to recommend tighter greenhouse gas emission targets for the EU, cutting emissions by 90% by 2040 from 1990 levels, and testing the political appetite for even more drastic climate change measures.

Venezuela Agrees to Dragon Terms. Shell has settled production terms with Venezuela’s PDVSA on the 350 MMCf per day Dragon gas field that straddles the border of Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago, pledging 45% of the project’s gross income to Venezuela in return for the guarantee that Trinidad takes all gas volumes.

Petrobras Seeks Downstream Expansion Under Lula. Currently operating 11 refineries in Brazil with a total distillation capacity of 1.85 million b/d, Brazil’s national oil company Petrobras (NYSE:pBR) pledged to increase refining capacity by another 25% over the next four years.

Qatar Clinches Bangladesh LNG Supply Deal. QatarEnergy and the US-based LNG developer Excelerate Energy (NYSE:EE) signed a 15-year term supply deal to deliver 1 million tonnes of LNG to Bangladesh starting from January 2026, another supply agreement from the North Field expansion.

While we are on oil:

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CRE loans are spread all over the world (again). A good thing for US banks.

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That's x2 'that's never happened before'.

Something to beware of?

jog on
duc
 
Another pretty mild day without any real economic reports.

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USD shortage? Not a major as they are a small economy, however is the recent strength in the USD responsible?

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Market rises due to the weighting of the Magnificent 7. Although TSLA is probably going to be removed.

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So 'inflation' is down, but high prices remain? LOL. The woman is a clown.

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Tapping credit?

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Pretty transparent.

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jog on
duc
 
Oil News:

Friday, February 9th, 2024

The geopolitical risk premium kicked back in big time this week after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer in Gaza and bombed the border city of Rafah, making it increasingly unlikely that the upcoming weeks would see any de-escalation of tensions in Gaza. Relatively bearish calls from the US Energy Information Administration, saying that US crude output is unlikely to surpass the current level of 13.3 million b/d until early 2025, have also buoyed oil prices, with Brent poised to end the week slightly below $82 per barrel.

Devon Energy to Kick Off 2024 M&A Season. US oil producer Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) has reportedly approached Enerplus, a Calgary-headquartered upstream firm mostly focused on Bakken and Marcellus, with an acquisition offer that could go up to $3 billion.

India Courts Guyana for Oil Deals. The Indian government is seeking a multi-year oil purchase deal with Guyana and would be keen to buy into exploration blocks there, suggesting India’s state-owned companies might pick up some of the relinquished parts of the Stabroek block.

Sweden Doesn’t Want to Say Who Blew Up Nord Stream. Swedish authorities dropped their probe into the 2022 explosions on Nord Stream pipelines, saying they lacked jurisdiction on the case, and handed over collected evidence to Germany which is still carrying out its investigation.

ExxonMobil Plays with Venezuelan Fire. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) announced it would drill two exploratory wells north and west of its Stabroek block in the Essequibo offshore area disputed by Venezuela, triggering the ire of Caracas and raising tensions in the region again.

Australia’s Giant Merger Collapses Amid Shareholder Pressure. Australia’s leading oil producers Woodside (ASX:WDS) and Santos (ASX:STO) called off their $52 billion merger as the two companies couldn’t agree on a valuation level and failed to pass due diligence.

First Time in Six Years, Palladium Prices Fall Below Platinum. Palladium prices fell below the platinum price for the first time since April 2018 this week, dropping to $870 per troy ounce, as the automotive sector has been increasingly going for cheaper platinum option.

Joining Shell, TotalEnergies Eyes Onshore Nigeria Sale. France’s energy major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) is expected to unveil its divestment of onshore Nigerian assets, most notably a 10% stake in the heretofore Shell-operated SPDC, whilst keeping gas projects in the Niger Delta.

Europe’s Wind Generation Beats Gas in 2023. Europe’s wind power generation surpassed natural gas last year, accounting for 18% of the continent’s supply and only losing out to nuclear, however, gas’ 15% year-on-year drop might rebound this year as prices fell below $10/mmBtu.

Activists Target LME for Trading Indonesian Copper. Two activist groups filed a legal action against the London Metal Exchange for allowing the sale of copper from the Freeport McMoran-operated (NYSE:FCX) Grasberg mine in Indonesia, allegedly polluting water sources with waste.

Brushing Aside Demand Worries, US Driving Hits Record. The US Transportation Department reported that travel on American roads rose 2.1% to 3.263 trillion miles, setting an all-time high, as offices and federal agencies prompted workers to return amid lower gasoline prices.

Green Hydrogen Impact to Be a Part of LNG Assessments. The White House stated that the pause in LNG terminal approvals should weigh the impact of new gas projects on the green hydrogen market, saying the regulatory revamp should take months not years.

Germany Mulls Nationalization of Russian-Owned Refinery. The German government said it is investigating the option of expropriating Rosneft Deutschland, a subsidiary of Russia’s state-run oil company that holds shares in three German plants and operates the Schwedt refinery.

Mexico’s Next Best Thing Delayed Again. Mexico’s embattled national oil firm Pemex delayed the launch of its largest untapped asset, the 675 MMbbls Zama field originally discovered by Talos Energy (NYSE:TALO), by one year to 2026 citing the need for further engineering appraisal.

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So since it has been such a quiet week a return to the TBAC report:

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So total receipts... were actually increased by:

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Extensions from California.

So once again interest expense exceeds tax receipts. This will require additional liquidity from somewhere.

Are the markets paying attention?

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Stocks definitely not. Volatility as low as it has ever been.

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Bonds far more so, but not yet in panic mode.

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Gold, oh yes.

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A lack of liquidity is always a USD issue.

Nigeria was possibly a clue that the marginal USD users were starting to struggle. A more pressing issue is if Japan runs short of USD. Japan still has $1T+ of UST that it can sell to obtain USD. The last time Japan sold UST, a mere $30B there was chaos in the UST market and the MOVE index spiked forcing the Fed to intervene.

So the stock market is RIGHT if Yellen can keep the USD weak. Keeping the USD weak is inflationary, but not wildly so atm as oil is not priced outrageously, ie. $90+ currently.

The stock market is WRONG if Yellen cannot contain (keep) USD weak(er). If USD continues to rise EVERYTHING except gold will go down.

Looking at that USD chart: Up or down?

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Another view.

So how can Yellen force the USD lower?

Given that Japan is the elephant in the room, anything that strengthens the Yen as against the USD:

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Which with a stronger Yen, Japan could start buying UST:

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As they could hedge the USD/Yen exposure.

jog on
duc
 
View attachment 170568

Dose anyone have a search engine that can determine if this is even remotely true.
And if so what would be an average holding time. (Or how could you recognize a sell signal?)
the key condition is out-perform the majority of professional money-managers

now under-performing money managers have the ability to keep a very low profile ( some even quietly retire ) whilst a market-beater crows and crows from the roof tops ( even if it is his/her only big win in 10 years )

but in saying that , one big win can erase twenty years of substandard outcomes

not made clear is .. are those 'near-high ' stocks sold within a month or held for years

if the answer is 'years ' well then you have to include inflation factors into the mix in which case , most of the time that would be correct as inflation does the heavy lifting ( and ETFs do their part to help )
 
Mr UMike,

First off, this is Mr flippe-floppe-flye. His opinion could do a 180 on this tomorrow.

That being said:


This is basically a new highs type of stock.

jog on
duc
sadly i didn't research the dot.com bubble as much as the GFC , maybe i should have , this is looking a little like a bigger version of it ( i was thinking GFC on steroids )

Mr flippe-floppe-flye is ( allegedly ) a trader , his bread and butter is agility and razor-sharp reflexes so yes 180 on Monday maybe even a 360 or 720 as long as he grabs some profits he will be happy
 
Time to buy China? More on this later. Developing.
maybe not , they are still trying to accelerate to a hot war with China

whether this is a wise strategy is yet to be seen

i am still watching for opportunities for extra exposure to India ( and South East Asia in general )
 
Market waving adios to rate cuts;

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USD drives everything bad. Strong USD everything else weak except gold. For the moment it is selling, but it will reverse.

jog on
duc
 
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