Electric cars? for Aspies, Narcissists and Power Grid people

[sptrawler]

..However, Norway’s drivers could keep costs down by changing their charging habits.
Charging car batteries at night would drop new grid costs to almost zero, while charging in the afternoon and only when batteries are relatively empty would require just above 4 billion crowns of investment.

Pretty straightforward isn't it ? Use off peak charging and it's all sweet.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...on-to-power-bills-by-2040-study-idUSKCN1T81Y0

The big problem for us Bas, as I said in the other thread, if we use overnight off peak it is fossil fueled.
If you are running renewables, the problem is two fold:
1. If you charge overnight, you are using stored energy that is required in the morning.
2. If you charge during the mid day peak of solar, you are using energy that will be required to charge your overnight storage.
This is why when we talk renewables, we need so much more than installed at call fossil fueled generation, not only does it have to supply the load it has to generate enough to charge storage and it is intermittent.
Norway probably has heaps of hydro, and a small road network and electrical network, very different to Australia I'm afraid.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The big problem for us Bas, as I said in the other thread, if we use overnight off peak it is fossil fueled.
If you are running renewables, the problem is two fold:
1. If you charge overnight, you are using stored energy that is required in the morning.
2. If you charge during the mid day peak of solar, you are using energy that will be required to charge your overnight storage.
This is why when we talk renewables, we need so much more than installed at call fossil fueled generation, not only does it have to supply the load it has to generate enough to charge storage and it is intermittent.
Norway probably has heaps of hydro, and a small road network and electrical network, very different to Australia I'm afraid.

Not that I'm an expert.

But we do have more sunshine and land mass.

gg

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

The big problem for us Bas, as I said in the other thread, if we use overnight off peak it is fossil fueled.
If you are running renewables, the problem is two fold:
1. If you charge overnight, you are using stored energy that is required in the morning.
2. If you charge during the mid day peak of solar, you are using energy that will be required to charge your overnight storage.
This is why when we talk renewables, we need so much more than installed at call fossil fueled generation, not only does it have to supply the load it has to generate enough to charge storage and it is intermittent.
Norway probably has heaps of hydro, and a small road network and electrical network, very different to Australia I'm afraid.

True; Norway's energy profile is like ~95% hydro, with a small population. If they are experiencing problems with hydro that tends to have a high capacity factor, and just a ~2% EV uptake; I shudder to think the problems we will have with solar and wind supporting our EVs.

 

[sptrawler]

Not that I'm an expert.

But we do have more sunshine and land mass.

gg

That is very true GG, and as I've said we are probably one of the only countries in the fortunate position of being able to pull it off, but it will take a long time and a lot of work and huge amounts of money.
As I've posted before, just to replace existing fossil fueled power stations, twice as much renewables require installing and three times as much storage.
That is a lot, and that is only replacing what is there now, the load keeps growing.
What Chrono is saying is there will be an increase in electrical load, Bas is saying charge them overnight off peak, but that requires burning more fossil fuel.
Even if you are using renewables, if you charge the EV overnight you are using storage be that batteries or pumped hydro.
If you charge them during the day when the solar is working, well it has to feed the day load, pump the stored hydro water and charge grid batteries for overnight and morning load, so you are taking some of that power to charge the cars.
What about on overcast days, with no wind? I know with a grid solar and wind will be working somewhere, but the load still requires a certain amount.

So in reality there is every possibility it will add to the amount of renewables you will have to install, which is already a considerable amount. As I've often said i don't think people understand the enormity of the issue, it all looks simple when you look at the 250v plug on the wall.
Anyway GG I believe far North Queensland is getting some really big solar farms and pumped hydro storage, so you guys may be first cab off the rank.
Or maybe not.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/aemo-de...-queensland-after-wind-solar-curtailed-65525/
Just my thoughts.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Here are some of the most recent numbers I can find for pure electric registered vehicles in Norway, which make up ~9%.



(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_Norway)

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Looking more into Norway's energy profile; Norway are a major electrical generation powerhouse with significant surplus capacity from their hydro-electric powerplants. Norway are now in the process of exporting power to the other Nordic nations, Germany and the UK.

Interesting read, if people have the time: "Norway’s power trading capacity with other countries is currently 6200 MW, which corresponds to about 20 % of installed production capacity. Two new interconnectors to Germany and the UK are scheduled for completion in 2020 and 2021, each with a capacity of 1400 MW. This will increase Norway’s total power trading capacity to about 9000 MW. This will give Norway a very high power trading capacity as a share of installed production capacity compared with many other European countries."
(https://energifaktanorge.no/en/norsk-energiforsyning/kraftnett/#:~:text=Norway’s power trading capacity with other countries is,total power trading capacity to about 9000 MW.)

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Just went and found the direct reference for the Norway issues, the ~2% EV uptake figure was for the Nordic nations as a whole. Here is the direct reference:

"As electric car stock shares are still low in the Nordic countries (1.9%), it is too early to see any major effects from EVs on the grid. Most Nordic countries have strong electricity networks, as they are built to serve relatively high electricity demand, especially during the cold winters. At the transmission level, no impacts from EV uptake have been reported. Distribution grids, so far, have proven able to serve the levels of electric cars without significant difficulties. Yet, as the share of electric vehicles increased, the case of Norway shows that distribution infrastructure experienced a few issues. This occurred in densely populated urban environments and recreational regions that experienced a large influx of visitors during holidays and weekends (Spilde and Skotland, 2017; Klingenberg, 2017; Hovland, 2017).

For most detached houses in the Nordic countries, the power connections are substantial and range 9-15 kW. For apartments, a typical connection is around 6 kW, but most apartments do not have access to private parking or they park in a parking garage. To compare, the average power connection to a house in a southern European country such as Italy is around 3.3 kW per household and in Spain it is around 5 kW (Endesa, 2017).

Home chargers of the newest electric car models, with a power rating that is typically 3-7 kW, add a significant load to the electricity consumption of a household (Figure 4.6). Unless this is properly managed (e.g. through smart charging), the growth in electricity demand due to electric car charging may lead to exceeding the maximum power available in the distribution grid. This is a more pressing issue during peak hours and cold days, when the grid utilisation rate is closer to its capacity, and in rural areas, where the network resilience is lower."

(https://www.nordicenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/NordicEVOutlook2018.pdf)


In saying this; Norwegians consume ~2 times the electricity compared to Australians; per capita (https://www.indexmundi.com/map/?v=81000)

 

[Smurf1976]

Unless this is properly managed (e.g. through smart charging), the growth in electricity demand due to electric car charging may lead to exceeding the maximum power available in the distribution grid. This is a more pressing issue during peak hours and cold days, when the grid utilisation rate is closer to its capacity, and in rural areas, where the network resilience is lower.

No argument there. It needs to be managed most certainly.

Electricity demand already is managed in various ways, largely without consumers realising:

1. Price is one tool via "time of use" pricing arrangements.

2. Controlled load water heating is the dominant method where gas is not used and is a very direct time shifting of load to off-peak.

3. Input power rating limits do apply in some situations in practice either directly or via regulations serving other purposes which make that the simplest means of compliance in practice.

EV's need a similar approach most certainly, that has always been the thinking right from the start at least in Australia, but so long as that's done it's workable.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

No argument there. It needs to be managed most certainly.

Electricity demand already is managed in various ways, largely without consumers realising:

1. Price is one tool via "time of use" pricing arrangements.

2. Controlled load water heating is the dominant method where gas is not used and is a very direct time shifting of load to off-peak.

3. Input power rating limits do apply in some situations in practice either directly or via regulations serving other purposes which make that the simplest means of compliance in practice.

EV's need a similar approach most certainly, that has always been the thinking right from the start at least in Australia, but so long as that's done it's workable.

What about our transmission and power connection infrastructure? Can it handle the loads or will that need to be upgraded also?

The Nordic nations consume multiple times we Australians consume, per capita, as such their grids would be gold-plated compared to us, one would think.

Also Norway has ~70% storage capacity in their natural reservoirs: "Total reservoir capacity corresponds to 70 % of annual Norwegian electricity consumption." (https://energifaktanorge.no/en/nors...f the reservoirs were constructed before 1990.)

 

[rederob]

FINAL PARAGRAPH IN THE CONCLUSION: "However, the future of EVs is uncertain, especially concerning the battery capacity and deployment of fast chargers, which may lead to complications for the grid, requiring carefully coordinated charging planning for a large number of vehicles."

The future of EVs is not the same as capacity/load issues with the grid, a point you have overlooked in most of your posts.
Here's what your linked reference concluded on that point:

"Based on the four types of charging habits identified on our reduced dataset, we simulate the future load expected in 2030 with and without the EV market share increase, and show that it seems to only moderately impact the shape of the load curve."​

 

[sptrawler]

What about our transmission and power connection infrastructure? Can it handle the loads or will that need to be upgraded also?

The Nordic nations consume multiple times we Australians consume, per capita, as such their grids would be gold-plated compared to us, one would think.

Also Norway has ~70% storage capacity in their natural reservoirs: "Total reservoir capacity corresponds to 70 % of annual Norwegian electricity consumption." (https://energifaktanorge.no/en/norsk-energiforsyning/kraftproduksjon/#:~:text=Norway has more than 1000 hydropower storage reservoirs,Most of the reservoirs were constructed before 1990.)

A lot of that is happening currently, with the high take up of domestic solar, the LV distribution system is constantly being upgraded (W.A).
The HV and LV distribution in Australia, is going through a massive change as we speak, the introduction of high output solar and wind farms in remote locations is forcing the whole grid to be reconfigured to some degree.
The AEMO will be well aware of the EV situation and that will be factored in with a lot of the modifications and upgrades, that are planned.
Well that is my guess and I have had a little bit of exposure to generation and distribution planning.
The other thing that is always improving is technology, to make the system and equipment better cope with changes in the way they have to perform.
When a problem arises the technical departments go to work to resolve it, as happened with the voltage swings at remote solar farms in NW Victoria and far West NSW, now the AVR's work with a droop factor and all play nicely with each other by the sound of it.
So as smurf says, there will be issues, but they will be overcome, that's guaranteed.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

The future of EVs is not the same as capacity/load issues with the grid, a point you have overlooked in most of your posts.
Here's what your linked reference concluded on that point:

"Based on the four types of charging habits identified on our reduced dataset, we simulate the future load expected in 2030 with and without the EV market share increase, and show that it seems to only moderately impact the shape of the load curve."​

You're a bit slow. We have already moved to analysing Norway:

1. Norway generate a substantial amount of surplus electricity, which they export.

2. Norway have an enormous amount of installed capacity relative to their small population.

3. Norway have storage capacity of ~70% of their electrical consumption, with ~95% produced from hydro-electric powerplants which have a high capacity factor.

4. Norway's grid is a gold-plated network compared to Australia's; as the Norwegians use more than 2 times the electricity per capita.

After all this; Norway still experienced serious problems with their grid, when their EV car stocks were just a few percent.

You aren't very good at study and research it seems.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

A lot of that is happening currently, with the high take up of domestic solar, the LV distribution system is constantly being upgraded (W.A).
The HV and LV distribution in Australia, is going through a massive change as we speak, the introduction of high output solar and wind farms in remote locations is forcing the whole grid to be reconfigured to some degree.
The AEMO will be well aware of the EV situation and that will be factored in with a lot of the modifications and upgrades, that are planned.
Well that is my guess and I have had a little bit of exposure to generation and distribution planning.
The other thing that is always improving is technology, to make the system and equipment better cope with changes in the way they have to perform.
When a problem arises the technical departments go to work to resolve it, as happened with the voltage swings at remote solar farms in NW Victoria and far West NSW, now the AVR's work with a droop factor and all play nicely with each other by the sound of it.
So as smurf says, there will be issues, but they will be overcome, that's guaranteed.

This transition will not be as quick and rapid as many here are hoping for in Australia. Norway are at about ~9% EV car stocks, and I have just posted the reason why they have been able to do it so far; despite their grid problems that they have already experienced.

 

[sptrawler]

This transition will not be as quick and rapid as many here are hoping for in Australia. Norway are at about ~9% EV car stocks, and I have just posted the reason why they have been able to do it so far; despite their grid problems that they have already experienced.

The issue in Australia IMO is it has been emotionally and politically driven, rather than technically driven, so a lot of what has happened over East hasn't been well planned.
This in turn IMO has led to the situation where as happened in S.A, the system became unstable and unreliable, due to just building asynchronous plant and shutting down synchronous plant.
It appears now that the AEMO is taking a lead role and a more holistic approach is being adopted, the next 10 years should see major changes.
As Snowy 2.0 and the Tassie battery come on line, it will be an instant storage sink for the renewables and should see the faster deployment of large scale renewable farms be facilitated.
The main thing holding back the uptake of electric cars IMO is, they don't do anything that an ICE car can't do and cost a hell of a lot more.
So until the price comes down and the batteries last longer/or are replaceable, so that a second hand one becomes viable most people will stick with what they know.
As you say it wont happen quickly.
The ranters and chanters will continue on, but the majority will just buy what is best for them. It wasn't that long ago that the newspapers were full of global warming, telling people to head for the hills, the same politicians that were talking it up are now buying houses on the beach front. Go Figure.
Just my opinions.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

So what you guys are saying is that there is a mismatch between generation of power, storage, use, economics and time in the utility of electricity for EV's at any point in time and longitudinally.

I can now see how y'all get so heated about it.

Lotsa balls in the air there.

gg

 

[basilio]

The main thing holding back the uptake of electric cars IMO is, they don't do anything that an ICE car can't do and cost a hell of a lot more.

So until the price comes down and the batteries last longer/or are replaceable, so that a second hand one becomes viable most people will stick with what they know.

I think these are questionable SP

1) They are far cheaper to run than ICE cars in terms of fuel and maintenance. That is significant
2) They produce no ongoing pollution either particulates or CO2. Again very significant
3) Yes they are currently more expensive and that is largely due to battery costs. But they are intrinsically far cheaper to produce with whole operating systems - cooling, waste extraction, catalytic converters - no longer necessary. Battery costs and battery life is going up dramatically and on every indication will make EV cars directly cost competitive within a few years - if not earlier.

 

[qldfrog]

So what you guys are saying is that there is a mismatch between generation of power, storage, use, economics and time in the utility of electricity for EV's at any point in time and longitudinally.

I can now see how y'all get so heated about it.

Lotsa balls in the air there.

gg

Nice summary GG, so much co dependencies
And as pointed, what could be an ideal solution for NZ with hydro could be disastrous here, while our solar advantage can not be reproduced elsewhere.

 

[qldfrog]

Note also all these talks are based on 20y projections.
What if a real virus like ebola wipes us, or we end up economically broke.
More optimistically, if fusion comes on line, all this becomes a different game again.or batteries not requiring so much rater resources
Let's keep options.to be honest hydrogen fuel cells or even ice would be more easy to manage.
Similar distribution networks as gas(meaning petrol station)
Whatever whenever electricity is produced can be converted and stored at low cost .
I just hope our governments will not decide who the winners should be as it usually ends in disaster economically..and technologically

 

[sptrawler]

I think these are questionable SP

1) They are far cheaper to run than ICE cars in terms of fuel and maintenance. That is significant

Only if you do a lot of driving.
The $20k price differential, buys a lot of fuel and maintenance.

2) They produce no ongoing pollution either particulates or CO2. Again very significant

Only to some people. Most are more concerned about what they cost to buy.

3) Yes they are currently more expensive and that is largely due to battery costs. But they are intrinsically far cheaper to produce with whole operating systems - cooling, waste extraction, catalytic converters - no longer necessary.

That really only helps the manufacturer, if the cost doesn't come down, the consumer will buy the the cheaper model. An ICE car is $20k cheaper than the same EV.

Battery costs and battery life is going up dramatically and on every indication will make EV cars directly cost competitive within a few years - if not earlier.

Then people will buy them, which is what I said.

 

[rederob]

After all this; Norway still experienced serious problems with their grid, when their EV car stocks were just a few percent.
You aren't very good at study and research it seems.

You began your crusade with a poorly based view of Australia's ability to accommodate EV penetration.
Like any country adapting to EVs, there is going to be a lag in putting in place every measure necessary, so some problems will occur along the way while catch-up happens. Norway is no exception.
EVs constituted a 16% share of new passenger sales in 2019, and in March 2020 "plug-in vehicles" represented over 75% of vehicle sales. It leads every nation in the world by a very long margin.
If what you spout was credible then their grid would have fried and EV sales dried up in Norway. Interestingly, wind and solar have made major contributions to Norway's capacity. And bidirectional flows are proving useful in stabilising Norway's grid.
It seems that you and the real world are at odds.