Iron Ore - General Commentary

[TimeISmoney]

Africa and China != Africa and western countries
At present, you will not see an African government taking a Chinese mining company management group hostage the time to ramp up a new tax.
This mine will work, IMHO the only issue is potential western interest sabotages in the context of a China cold war we are heading in.

The African govts love the Chinese but we all know how it ends up with Chinese investment, the donor country ends up in more than just debt to China because they can't pay the money back. The govt corruption is the thing that's hard to get rid of in Africa and this is the cause of all the rising coups against current govts. It's a very politically unstable country and the other threat to mining is the rebel groups.

 

[mullokintyre]

More blows for Iron Ore??
From AFR

Westpac has warned that iron ore prices could collapse 30 per cent this year to about $US70 a tonne when Rio Tinto floods the market with fresh supply, deflating hopes of a sustained rebound for Australia’s key export.

The spot price of iron ore rallied nearly 7 per cent last week to $US104.15 a tonne after robust Chinese trade data bolstered hopes that Beijing’s stimulus measures were lifting steel demand.

Mick

 

[TimeISmoney]

More blows for Iron Ore??
From AFR

View attachment 191648

Mick

Westpac can't even predict future interest rates let alone commodity prices.

 

[qldfrog]

From China with ..not much..love

Guinea’s vast Simandou mine on track to start delivering for Chinese investors

Locomotive deals worth more than half a billion dollars signal iron ore could start flowing to ports this year.

www.scmp.com

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

From China with ..not much..love

Guinea’s vast Simandou mine on track to start delivering for Chinese investors

Locomotive deals worth more than half a billion dollars signal iron ore could start flowing to ports this year.

www.scmp.com

RIO are in ta ta with the Chinese on Simandou.

gg

 

[rcw1]

Iron ore seen steady at $US100 mark through March: Goldman​

Timothy Moore AFR
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Aurelia Waltham, a commodities’ analyst at Goldman Sachs, said she expects the spot price of iron ore to hold steady near $US100 a tonne at least through March.

“We believe that it is too early for a break below $US100/t, and expect prices to remain supported around current levels over the coming weeks. We therefore maintain our H1 2025 average price forecast of $US100/t, with market fundamentals remaining relatively balanced until shifting to oversupply later in the year.

Waltham said weather disruption to Australian shipments is flowing through to arrivals in China, with Chinese port stocks declining by 4 per cent this week. “However, we do not expect a lasting impact on our balance due to surging March shipments.”

“Meanwhile, we do not expect significant near-term cuts to Chinese hot metal output, supporting iron ore consumption. Our base case is that supply reform in 2025 is limited, with Chinese crude steel production declining by just 1 per cent YoY, in line with feedback from mills.

Due to an expected increase in the pig iron/crude steel ratio, this means Goldman sees Chinese iron ore consumption as almost flat this year, she also said.

“We expect the decline in crude steel output to be concentrated in Q4, which, alongside higher iron ore supply, helps to push iron ore stocks back into a period of steep increase, eventually bringing the iron ore price below $US90/t by the end of the year.”