New posts

Reply to thread

Message

Once electric vehicles make up a significant proportion of all new vehicle sales, sure, price discretion will be a bigger issue, but for the next few years we could see new EV sales continue to increase even if it was only the most wealthy few percent of the population buying them. Only a very small percentage of the population buys a new vehicle each year, plenty of people never buy one in their whole lives. I will most likely never buy a new car (Why pay a few thousand dollars to drive it out of the dealership when I can pay thousands of dollars less just because someone else drove it out of the dealership?). You're only buying a new car because you want to spend extra money for the privilege of having a virgin car, you're already choosing to spend more money than you need to, so why not buy what you want? And as I said, what the majority of people now want is an electric car, even if it's not quite as cost effective. We even have a poll here on this forum showing that, not that we need it. We literally know that the consumer is literally willing to pay more for the privilege of driving an electric car, even if it is about stupid virtue signaling or to kid one's self into thinking that they're helping the world.

We have ample evidence that the majority of people want an EV even if it will cost them more, most people are being lead to believe that in the long run it will be cheaper even if it won't, and currently the percentage of new vehicle sales which are EVs is low, so you would only need a very small percentage of the population to choose EVs for the number of EV sales to increase for the next few years. If half of all new vehicle sales were already EVs, sure, things might be different (but even then, any downturn in total new vehicle sales would mostly be deducted from ICE vehicles, not EV sales).

Saying long term demand will increase is pretty redundant at this point; mandates for phasing out petrol vehicles take this out of the choice of motorists anyway. Sure, the rush to renewable (unreliable) electricity sources will force the use of large scale electricity storage, which will increase demand on lithium. We're definitely setting ourselves up for a huge surge in electricity prices by phasing out our cheapest and most reliable sources and replacing them with more expensive and less reliable sources, while simultaneously increasing our demand for electricity! Private vehicles will be out of reach for an increasing percentage of the population in the not too distant future, but most people won't wake up to that reality within the next 10 years.

Looking at the trend on new EV sales, and considering the very low percentage of the total market this still represents, and that the number of people required to fuel this is very small and that there is still a much greater percentage of people with more money than they need, and the number of people who believe that buying an EV will 'save the planet' and increase their social status, and the fact that you literally need to book way ahead to buy an EV and sales are already booked way ahead with deposits already paid... it doesn't make much sense to say total EV sales are going to drop any time in the next 2-3 years and I would argue 5+ years conservatively.

[ATTACH=full]150550[/ATTACH]

<blockquote data-quote="Sdajii" data-source="post: 1204883" data-attributes="member: 30808">Once electric vehicles make up a significant proportion of all new vehicle sales, sure, price discretion will be a bigger issue, but for the next few years we could see new EV sales continue to increase even if it was only the most wealthy few percent of the population buying them. Only a very small percentage of the population buys a new vehicle each year, plenty of people never buy one in their whole lives. I will most likely never buy a new car (Why pay a few thousand dollars to drive it out of the dealership when I can pay thousands of dollars less just because someone else drove it out of the dealership?). You&#039;re only buying a new car because you want to spend extra money for the privilege of having a virgin car, you&#039;re already choosing to spend more money than you need to, so why not buy what you want? And as I said, what the majority of people now want is an electric car, even if it&#039;s not quite as cost effective. We even have a poll here on this forum showing that, not that we need it. We literally know that the consumer is literally willing to pay more for the privilege of driving an electric car, even if it is about stupid virtue signaling or to kid one&#039;s self into thinking that they&#039;re helping the world.We have ample evidence that the majority of people want an EV even if it will cost them more, most people are being lead to believe that in the long run it will be cheaper even if it won&#039;t, and currently the percentage of new vehicle sales which are EVs is low, so you would only need a very small percentage of the population to choose EVs for the number of EV sales to increase for the next few years. If half of all new vehicle sales were already EVs, sure, things might be different (but even then, any downturn in total new vehicle sales would mostly be deducted from ICE vehicles, not EV sales).Saying long term demand will increase is pretty redundant at this point; mandates for phasing out petrol vehicles take this out of the choice of motorists anyway. Sure, the rush to renewable (unreliable) electricity sources will force the use of large scale electricity storage, which will increase demand on lithium. We&#039;re definitely setting ourselves up for a huge surge in electricity prices by phasing out our cheapest and most reliable sources and replacing them with more expensive and less reliable sources, while simultaneously increasing our demand for electricity! Private vehicles will be out of reach for an increasing percentage of the population in the not too distant future, but most people won&#039;t wake up to that reality within the next 10 years.Looking at the trend on new EV sales, and considering the very low percentage of the total market this still represents, and that the number of people required to fuel this is very small and that there is still a much greater percentage of people with more money than they need, and the number of people who believe that buying an EV will &#039;save the planet&#039; and increase their social status, and the fact that you literally need to book way ahead to buy an EV and sales are already booked way ahead with deposits already paid... it doesn&#039;t make much sense to say total EV sales are going to drop any time in the next 2-3 years and I would argue 5+ years conservatively.[ATTACH=full]150550[/ATTACH]</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Sdajii, post: 1204883, member: 30808"] Once electric vehicles make up a significant proportion of all new vehicle sales, sure, price discretion will be a bigger issue, but for the next few years we could see new EV sales continue to increase even if it was only the most wealthy few percent of the population buying them. Only a very small percentage of the population buys a new vehicle each year, plenty of people never buy one in their whole lives. I will most likely never buy a new car (Why pay a few thousand dollars to drive it out of the dealership when I can pay thousands of dollars less just because someone else drove it out of the dealership?). You're only buying a new car because you want to spend extra money for the privilege of having a virgin car, you're already choosing to spend more money than you need to, so why not buy what you want? And as I said, what the majority of people now want is an electric car, even if it's not quite as cost effective. We even have a poll here on this forum showing that, not that we need it. We literally know that the consumer is literally willing to pay more for the privilege of driving an electric car, even if it is about stupid virtue signaling or to kid one's self into thinking that they're helping the world. We have ample evidence that the majority of people want an EV even if it will cost them more, most people are being lead to believe that in the long run it will be cheaper even if it won't, and currently the percentage of new vehicle sales which are EVs is low, so you would only need a very small percentage of the population to choose EVs for the number of EV sales to increase for the next few years. If half of all new vehicle sales were already EVs, sure, things might be different (but even then, any downturn in total new vehicle sales would mostly be deducted from ICE vehicles, not EV sales). Saying long term demand will increase is pretty redundant at this point; mandates for phasing out petrol vehicles take this out of the choice of motorists anyway. Sure, the rush to renewable (unreliable) electricity sources will force the use of large scale electricity storage, which will increase demand on lithium. We're definitely setting ourselves up for a huge surge in electricity prices by phasing out our cheapest and most reliable sources and replacing them with more expensive and less reliable sources, while simultaneously increasing our demand for electricity! Private vehicles will be out of reach for an increasing percentage of the population in the not too distant future, but most people won't wake up to that reality within the next 10 years. Looking at the trend on new EV sales, and considering the very low percentage of the total market this still represents, and that the number of people required to fuel this is very small and that there is still a much greater percentage of people with more money than they need, and the number of people who believe that buying an EV will 'save the planet' and increase their social status, and the fact that you literally need to book way ahead to buy an EV and sales are already booked way ahead with deposits already paid... it doesn't make much sense to say total EV sales are going to drop any time in the next 2-3 years and I would argue 5+ years conservatively. [ATTACH type="full"]150550[/ATTACH] [/QUOTE]

Verification