qldfrog weekly Skate inspired system

[divs4ever]

well as much as i was pleasantly surprised by trump win, this did not help my positions: heavy gold and silver and minerals:
down 0.6% on the week back to September level whereas the asx is enjoying the SP rises of FMG, RIO and BHP so excited by the prospect of China tariffs (note WTF)
Overall an ASX index would have been much better: XJT rising with a 13% gain in the last 11 months while my setup is up a miserly 7%.
Good figure but not in perspective of a pure index etf
View attachment 187626

the gold dip should have been half-expected , Trump being elected will mean less life-lines to ungrateful corporations ( like Boeing )

sadly the dip was not quite deep enough to tempt extra buying ( by myself )

 

[qldfrog]

not better this week: super down 0.7% with PMs going down, and not that good for the ASX shares I own...well wait and see.

 

[qldfrog]

I wonder if I should carry that thread..hopefully will be able to get back in systematic trading now that I am back in Oz, and put property back in order

 

[qldfrog]

a good week for the super as for the market: xjt up 1.5% on the week vs my whole super 1% but market still beats me;
on the last 11 months nearly a year, XJT is up 15.4% whereas my own super mix is up 7.4%
Beaten but that is after some taxes (TD, dividends, and any share sales) and with a bigger side on cash PM...
Not sure if I should have been more greedy..easy to say after the facts..

 

[qldfrog]

I stopped posting as the prospect of going back to systemic trading are getting remote, but I should probably keep presenting my super journal:
Amalgamated super reached an ATH yesterday with a return since 20/12/2023 of 8.5 percent after fees, super costs and taxes;
on the same period the XJT managed an increase of 14.11 % so the super is under performing

Next week will reach the 1 year invested.

 

[qldfrog]

Some musing:
I have to wait till tomorrow to get the latest updated super values and end of US session to get the overall investment balance;
@Sean K 's graph inspired me to check my overall investment category split (super plus other investments.
Tonight:
Cryptos 2% of investments (PPOR excluded)
7% for physical gold silver
=> 10% direct Gold/silver/crypto
52% cash and TD
39% shares and ETFs

Note: Shares and ETFs do include substantial paper gold/silver ETFs as well as BILL ETF and other cash/bonds proxies roughly extra 10%
so overall cash not far from 60% which is pretty heavy.
USD exposure is around 10% as well thru USD accounts/US portfolio
More as a way for me to do a checkup at the EOY

 

[qldfrog]

A small aside
Maybe due to demand. But strangely enough, for the last 2 days which coincides with the minicrash and last night action.

And entering an order on Bell direct yesterday was rejected twice before being accepted..money was there, price was right.
For retail, as soon as there is some unusual market action, the smooth market trading tends to disappear.

 

[qldfrog]

Super progress so far: not a good week and the rebound of PM is not reflected yet as this is Australia based only

Overall my super return on a full calendar year:+6.89% vs XJT of 10.97%;
Super is after brokerage , fees and taxes
And to add further comparison, on the last year , the XJO was up 7.5%

 

[qldfrog]

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas!!!
Have a great time and enjoy good company

 

[Sean K]

Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas!!!
Have a great time and enjoy good company

You too Mr Frog. Hope Santa drops you a nice present or two.

 

[qldfrog]

super clocking around:
finishing the year at 8.08% after fees taxes vs 13.6% for XJT;

and overall portfolio:
various investments etc nicely up a 5 figures last week but still below its ATH of mid December not bad after last night in the US and slightly lower crypto/gold.
Still above 50% cash ATM.
Have all a great festive season

 

[qldfrog]

Sending my best wishes for the new year to all the people i interact here on the forum, first of all to @Joe Blow , without who this whole interaction would not be possible, but also all the other participants here.
We learn..always, disagree.. often but interact and keep being challenged and isn't it what life is all about?
Where else could i discuss the PE of CBA, BTC vs gold, ETF roles..(ET what?) or even catastrophic carbon balance of a solar farm in Widgee...
Australia can be a lonely place for some of us
May 2025 bring us peace and more common sense, maybe even a change of the tide which has been destroying our whole western society in the last decades.
And for each of uou, health and success in your projects, whatever they might be.

 

[qldfrog]

As discussed in a post, I initiated today a small Dog of the ASX portfolio, getting the 10 worst ASX stocks which still distribute dividends and so are reasonably healthy
More details in this article: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/dogs-of-the-asx-did-they-bark-or-bite-in-2024
I coud only enter my order during the late morning so entries could have been better but hey, have to start somewhere.
RDV in end Dec 2025 when I will sell the lot
I will try to post progress from time to time:

Note that this is the exact opposite of my using trending where I am a trend follower, cutting losses ASAP..
There were minor packet value difference due to SP variation post order entry but we are roughly in 10x5k
Wish me luck with that one..
Now to more systemic work as my back recovers

 

[frugal.rock]

I've also been looking at IPH last few days. Strong volume? on close today (yesterday now...after midnight).

 

[divs4ever]

As discussed in a post, I initiated today a small Dog of the ASX portfolio, getting the 10 worst ASX stocks which still distribute dividends and so are reasonably healthy
More details in this article: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/dogs-of-the-asx-did-they-bark-or-bite-in-2024
I coud only enter my order during the late morning so entries could have been better but hey, have to start somewhere.
RDV in end Dec 2025 when I will sell the lot
I will try to post progress from time to time:
View attachment 190728
Note that this is the exact opposite of my using trending where I am a trend follower, cutting losses ASAP..
There were minor packet value difference due to SP variation post order entry but we are roughly in 10x5k
Wish me luck with that one..
Now to more systemic work as my back recovers

good luck

( i hold IGO , ILU , and MIN )

 

[qldfrog]

Last week not that great, OK for super which nearly touched back its ATH;
but bad for other investments lately mitigated by BTC and PM regaining a bit in AUD;
as for the Dog of ASX portfolio, outch, down 2% in the first week, bad timing for a start...

So
A)
Super:

overall 8.5% return since Dec 23 vs XJT at 14.2%.
B)
Dog of ASX:
-2% in its first week with only FMG and ILU bringing some green since purchased on the 8/01;
As a reminder, these are the dogs making that portfolio;

Code	Company
EDV	endeavour
FMG	forescue
IEL	IDP educ
IGO	IGO
ILU	Iluka
MIN	Mineral Resources
NHF	Nib holding
PDN	Paladin energy
PLS	Pilbara Min
VEA	viva energy

Let's see how this unfolds

C)
overall wealth inc super, everything but PPOR and after all living expenses deducted still managed to be positive this week , something which surprised me .
currently overall >50% cash, 10% PM and crypto, a bit below 40% shares both ASX and US
================================
A very long post but the best for the end:
At long last I got time to restart working on system trading;
Just a start but after nearly 3y out of the game as all funds where allocated in the farm downgrade and RE purchase, with attached dramas, it is welcome.
A bit rusty but getting in again;
I managed to detect a forward looking issue in one of the system I was planning to restart as is..
not detected by amibroker but giving different results in buy/sell list for a same period, when adding new data at the end of that period..definition of a future looking issue..
And toying with a new concept. so stretching my code knowledge a bit there

 

[qldfrog]

A big week: I am leaving AustralianSuper and setting up a SMSF; reluctant but we can not handle a serious amount of money thru AustralianSuper, and I do not trust them.
I liquidated today the whole portfolios, manually, slowly getting a few extra cents here and there
I am not sure on how the Australian Super would proceed if I ask a super rollover /transfer in the coming week;
After a great portfolio result yesterday,I felt safe moving 100% cash, earning 5% plus until the transfer is effective which could take a while

I will get the last figures tomorrow and provide the last report for the Frog Super vs XJT experience since dec 2023;
The "Dogs of asx" is not in the super and the experience will carry on!
The dogs had a great week, only 2 stocks in the red, and a 3.12% profit overall since the 8/01:

Date	Dogs value
8/01/2025​	$49,893.79
11/01/2025​	$48,882.78	-2.03%​
18/01/2025​	$51,451.26	3.12%​

Code	Company	Nb	Bought	Close	Diff
EDV	endeavour	1187​	4.21​	4.19​	-0.67%​
FMG	forescue	285​	17.51​	19.22​	9.55%​
IEL	IDP educ	390​	12.7​	12.91​	1.45%​
IGO	IGO	990​	5.06​	5.32​	4.93%​
ILU	Iluka	954​	5.24​	5.41​	3.04%​
MIN	Mineral Resources	141​	35.24​	37.05​	4.93%​
NHF	Nib holding	869​	5.59​	5.52​	-1.46%​
PDN	Paladin energy	604​	8.27​	8.63​	4.14%​
PLS	Pilbara Min	2150​	2.32​	2.39​	2.81%​
VEA	viva energy	1858​	2.71​	2.78​	2.38%​

 

[frugal.rock]

Some more dogs breakfast;
IPH and RHC.
Shhhh, don't tell everyone

 

[qldfrog]

Some more dogs breakfast;
IPH and RHC.
Shhhh, don't tell everyone

thanks FR, i will just stick to these select 10 for a year.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Good Luck Brave and Sometimes Loyal Froggie

I have 2 FMG presented to the Wind
I have 1 IGO presented to the Wind
I have 1 PDN presented to the Wind

Many thanks and I'll check the rest and See what I am Missing out on

Salute and Stay Well