Quality of Postings on this forum

[Porper]

Re: Quality of Postings on this forum.

Although I am not participating on this thread, I do find it intriguing.It is very interesting watching people self-diagnose, I think I am a bit new to investing to get in this deep.I must be a lucky beginner joining the market at a boom time.

My selections are pretty basic, watch a stock for a while, get as much information as I can on that company, if I like what I read (and I must admit whether the directors are actively buying is a big issue for me), then I will buy when it is about to bounce (hopefully). I never think about my feelings for a company, only what potential investors might think, so I could, and have bought shares in a company I thought was full of hot air yet knowing it would do well medium term so locking in a descent profit before selling.

You can get a good idea having watched the trading pattern as to when they bounce.One thing I have learnt the hard way is to set a rigid stop loss at 20 %, this way I can have a better chance of not selling out to early.I also like the "high risk" stocks, you don't have to get many that win big to more than cover the losers.It seems a pretty good bet on junior oil stocks at the moment, again maybe simplistic but they all have a run before drilling news, so why not take advantage I say, this bull market wont last forever.Then we'll be asking Tech to teach us about put options.

Very simplistic I know, and I am learning the "technical" aspects as quickly as I can, enjoying it thoroughly as well. I am sure you will scorn me and give me your view on where I am going wrong Tech

 

[tech/a]

Re: Quality of Postings on this forum.

I am sure you will scorn me and give me your view on where I am going wrong Tech

Not so

Its a sound methodology one which Insight Trader make a living out of.
Directors buying huge volumes of their own stock (or selling it!!) is a pretty good indication that somethings up.

However there is in my veiw some work to be done to "Guarentee as much as one can that your method of trading will be consistantly profitable"

Question.

Why have you selected a 20% stop.
Is that 20% of initial investment
OR
20% of available funds?

tech

 

[RichKid]

Re: Quality of Postings on this forum.

I'm a newbie and I'm still figuring out my method and plan- I follow what little I have put together so far. See the thread on Destra DES for an example of how I trade. I basically go long on stocks and try to buy a bullish trend (eg uptrending stocks or recovery plays that have started to rise from 'bottoms'- I try to avoid picking bottoms). I'm learning to take profits without being greedy and hanging on in the 'hope' that it keeps going. Still have trouble following my stops but I'm working on where to set em. I don't use percentages (ie 8% drop to trigger stop) instead I look for close support and work on risk to return.

I'm finding your posts and threads extremely helpful Tech (Even though I don't understand most of it) and will keep trying to figure out the matrix etc that you have set out in your other thread.

I'm glad you are one of those people who are happy to share your knowledge and with the critical and constructive input of other forum members we should have some good discussions in future.

Thanks again!

 

[Porper]

Re: Quality of Postings on this forum.

Tech

My 20% stop loss is per stock, not my overall portfolio. Nobody told me 20 % was the correct figure, just my preference.I have not thought about my total investments, maybe that is an issue I need to address.I haven't been trading long enough to test any theory on when to sell everything.I first started trading as a young lad in 87, obviously got stung heavily a few months later, I haven't traded until this year since then.so I am very concerned as to be in a position to sell when, and it is a "when" the next collapse happens.

One thing I will add to my last post is everybody says buy a lot of stocks to dilute any losers, maybe I am wrong but from what I can see all this does is stop your big winners making you a lot of money.I have ten stocks and I am making a nice profit, certainly not life changing, if I had gone with my instinct I would have four stocks, three very big winners one losing 30 %, in my view if you feel very bullish about a stock, put a large chunk of your overall budget into it.If I had $500,00 to invest I would trade more cautiously, as I haven't I need to be more aggressive for a while.It is true the more money you have the more you make.

As to whether my style of investing will continue to make a profit year after year, in all honesty I doubt it, but my aim is to trade like this in this Bull market while at the same time learning as much as possible so I can change my tactics when I need to.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Quality of Postings on this forum.

Porper.

20% of stock value equates to the same thing as 20% of capital,if fully invested.
So with a 10 stock portfolio you can be 100% wrong 10 times to decrease your capital 20%
4 Times with a portfolio of 4.

Porper I really think that a large majority of traders here can associate with your concerns and uncertainty.
I really believe that very soon this can be alieviated.

See my goal in this forum is to guide you (or anyone interested) toward profitability CONSISTANT profitability.

Im not interested in HOW you get there Stocks,Options,Futures.
OR
WHY you trade the way you do,Technical,Fundamental,Gann,Elliot,Tarot cards

All is as valid as the next provided it is profitable.

If you know WHAT makes your investments profitable then you certaintly will be!!

 

[tech/a]

Re: Quality of Postings on this forum.

Before I move on.

My apologies for going off topic here.

Many forums are full of hypothetical, un informed,and in many cases dangerous advice or more to the point----rhetoric.

They are places that most newbies now go to "get a grounding" on this very diverse topic.
Its my view that the majority of the time not knowing any better they are lead in the wrong direction by someone who.

(1) Has read a book and is all excited.
(2) Has made a few profitable trades which the whole world knows about----and umpteen losers that only they know about!
(3) Is as confused as you are (Is XYZ a buy do you think?).
(4) Is wowed by the power of leverage and posts astounding trades with little knowledge of how their "Paper/hindsite Trade got there and no real idea of how the instrument they are trading works/operates.
(5) Have studied a method and convinced that THIS METHOD IS the HOLY GRAIL,not understanding WHAT makes ANY method profitable.(Force feeding raeders with Method related lingo and no explaination of how it is applied (PARTICULARLY AS IT HAPPENS) 99% quote hindsite examples which is fine what about the 100 other examples in the same timeframe that fail!!


In Summary Forums tend to turn.

The Simple into the Complex

General discussion is fine but if your expousing wisdom to the masses be sure you can demonstrate its application not its THEORY.

Remember that when exposing wisdom------- some people could and do loose a great deal of $$$s from un informed rubbish.They have the same dreams and aspirations you do --- otherwise they wouldnt be here!

You DO have a responsibility if you post in a knowledgable fashion---( in my veiw)

Ill post further discussion and explaination on the WHAT of trading on a seperate thread.

 

[Porper]

Re: Quality of Postings on this forum.

TechA Quote "You DO have a responsibility if you post in a knowledgable fashion---( in my veiw)"



Totally agree, and that's why we are on this forum & not Hotcopper, but just because we are not all experts doesn't mean to say we shouldn't post.If you read through the posts there are lots of discussions questioning buying/selling of a particular stock, not many on overall strategy, which when it boils down to it decides whether we will be profitable most of the time or just some of the time.

That's why your thread is creating a lot of interest, most people on here (myself included) are trying to find the answers to some of your previous questions.The fact we don't all know exactly where we are going doesn't mean we don't want to ask ourselves some hard questions and to find that solid investment strategy.

Unfortunately I will not be around for a month from Thursday (Going to a white Christmas in England) hopefully, so will not be able to respond but will look forward to the thread when I return. :santa:

 

[tech/a]

Re: Quality of Postings on this forum.

If you read through the posts there are lots of discussions questioning buying/selling of a particular stock, not many on overall strategy, which when it boils down to it decides whether we will be profitable most of the time or just some of the time.

Dont have a problem with that.

Only IF a poster offers advice!

Thats where the responsibility of due care comes in.

If its a theory or worked once then say so! Dont present it as tried and proven

This is my definition of quality.

There should be no problems with querying or asking for proof that this or that presented is factual or theory,If its offered as FACT


I certaintly dont and wont have a problem that way with any of the stuff I post up.

I could be wrong but isnt it easy to prove if its proven and you have evidence?
When a poster baulks at explainatory questioning then its a sure sign its a theory.

Anyway have a great Xmas in the UK.

 

[JetDollars]

Re: Quality of Postings on this forum.

If Discipline is part of the WHY then Confident is part of the WHAT

Confident = Discipline, but I haven't done that during my 2 months trading days until now. So I am confident to say that my profit was base on luck, researches, sleepless and most of all really enjoy what I am doing.

TradingPlan + TradingSystem = (consistant) Profits (but without Money and Risk Management = - Profit)............

Knowledge is the keys.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Quality of Postings on this forum.

If Discipline is part of the WHY then Confident is part of the WHAT

Confident = Discipline, but I haven't done that during my 2 months trading days until now. So I am confident to say that my profit was base on luck, researches, sleepless and most of all really enjoy what I am doing.

TradingPlan + TradingSystem = (consistant) Profits (but without Money and Risk Management = - Profit)............

Knowledge is the keys.

Jet.

It certaintly is possible in fact more than likely very plausable that many making a profit here are making it in spite of themselves rather than good management.

This is typified by

Irregular profits,
More regular losses coupled with a fair share of "Holds" hoping for the company to return to an upward trade direction,
Lack of funding,
Unquantified risk,
Lack of confidence.

Youll notice how the enjoyment fails as the losses grow.
One good win can have you on a high while you lose 50% of your net worth!!
We humans are forever the optimist.

Trading Plan + Trading System certaintly wont guarentee profits
Ive seen many which couldnt turn a profit in 100 yrs.
Even with the best Money management in the world.

Turning a Plan into a System that is PROFITABLE is the Challenge to every trader,and money Management is only part of that plan

There are many other components all which will be disclosed and I hope discussed soon on the "Being Profitable Thread".

Confidence comes with KNOWING WHAT makes YOUR method Profitable and that is that it will have a POSITIVE EXPECTANCY which you will have either calculated or will have identified through exhaustive testing.

In this context Knowledge is the key!!

Have a great break and I hope that in 12 mths time you and many others here are making consistent healthy profits.

tech

 

[JetDollars]

Re: Quality of Postings on this forum.

Thanks Tech/a for your knowledge and help me and many other to consistant profit in the near future.

I am looking forward to read your consistant profit system in the up coming post/s.

Merry XMas and Happy New Year.