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another pick for yearly comp - eying off increased production in 2020 - and seeing gold stocks as a haven to escape volatility
@shoeshineshare - first of all what a fantastic analysis and detail and the disclaimer.Some assumptions, a selection of facts, some arithmetic, the questions raised, the resources used. But first a warning to read the terms and conditions referred to in https://shoeshineshare.wordpress.com/2020/03/03/resolute-gold-asxrsg/
Gold price US$1585/oz, A$1 = US$0.65.
30th Jan 2020, reported 1.035b shares on issue.
- Includes 132.7m from Tranche 1 placement.
- Does not include 2020-02-26 announcement of 21m in Share Purchase Plan (SPP).
- Does not include 23m to be issued to directors, chairman, etc., to be issued in week commencing 16th March 2020.
Therefore 1.079b shares on issue as of mid/late March?
Net debt $460m at 31st December 2019.
- Reduced by ~$171m from share issues
- Reduced by somewhere between $100m to $300m from sale of Ravenswood, either in cash or stuff owed to them later. $50m is dependent on the gold price, which will all be paid if the gold price remains near where it is now. $150m is dependent on the amount the new owners make from the new mine.
- Balance sheet does not include $51m in tax debt in Mali which was raised on 27th February 2020 and is in dispute.
Once they settle Ravenswood, if the Mali dispute is settled favourably, are they somewhere between $189m in the black to $11m in the black? As a worst case, this would be $240m in debt, or -$0.222 per share.
All In Sustaining Costs (AISC) available both for Life Of Mine (LOM) average and for 2020 guidance (in different reports), I've used LOM where these were available.
- Syama target 300kozpa (up from 2020 guidance for 260kozpa) @ AISC US$746/oz for margin US$839/oz, target US$251.7m or A$387m. Reduces to A$335m if 2020 guidance of 260kozpa proves to be LOM average.
- Mako LOM average 140kozpa @ AISC US$780/oz for margin US$805/oz, average US$112.7m or A$173.4m.
- Ravenswood ignored as being sold, effectively treated as cash.
- Bibiani development, targets and so on, ignored.
Total revenue minus AISC from just these two is $550.4m or ~$500m with decreased assumption of LOM average at Syama.
The above doesn't consider any value from the exploration grounds, or the investments in other companies, just the earnings from the two major operations.
(Using 2020 guidance figures comes up with earnings about a quarter lower, so the longer-term future of the mine is slightly rosier than the performance in the next year.)
Last year costs were $20m admin, $20m exploration, $67m operating costs relating to gold sales, $108m depreciation and amortisation relating to gold sales, $48m net finance costs. The first three bring the $500m down to $393m. Finance costs presumably have been reduced, although the SPP might cost a few million. Similar depreciation would bring the taxable amount down to $285m, after-tax ~$200m.
There are "assets" of $83m exploration, $777m development, $442m property, plant and equipment, which adds (incorrectly due to rounding) to $1301m. This is slightly more than the market capitalisation and around their Enterprise Value (although just because you've spent it doesn't mean you've got value from it). So there's plenty of future depreciation available and already paid for. If you consider the sum of the Net Profit After Tax and the amount you depreciate out (because depreciation reduced tax but not cash flow), you get $308m.
7.4Moz Reserves, 19.1Moz Resources. Without Ravenswood, 4.68Moz Reserves, 11.87Moz Resources.
At current production rates by simple and not really valid division you get over 11 years of average life from Reserves without any conversion.
Syama is set for 14 years, Mako for 7 years.
$200m would mean Earnings Per Share of $0.185.
The last share price was $0.94. If you talk Enterprise Value (EV) with the worst case debt, the EV is $1.162.
So if you ignore the money earned to cancel out the depreciation, you assume the least amount of money from selling Ravenswood, you assume that Bibiani is worth zero, you ignore all the exploration grounds, you get an EV/E of 6.28.
Some (but not all) questions:
- Is the above an accurate and realistic way of looking at Resolute?
- Between the Syama roaster failure, the acquisition of Toro Gold (with the Mako project), the ramp up of Syama, Resolute reported a loss for 2019. Was that a real loss, or an accounting loss, or just the loss as Syama is building up to capacity and Mako bought?
- Is looking at the Life Of Mine too much for most people and they prefer to look at the slightly worse figures from just one year ahead?
- Although Resolute doesn't look like a zombie, since maybe one year of earnings will pay off its debt, will any need to refinance midyear be a risk if corporate debt becomes a dirty word?
- Is the lack of a dividend, the last dividend being in August 2018, a negative factor?
- What have I missed?
The sources used included the following.
- Appendix 4E Preliminary Final Report, 28th February 2020
- Details of Voting at EGM, 27th February 2020
- Completion of Share Purchase Plan, 26th February 2020
- BMO Conference Presentation, 26th February 2020
- Mining Indaba Presentation, 4th February 2020
- Sales of Ravenswood Gold Mine, 15th January 2020
Now for those of you who didn't go and read the disclaimer, here it is.
Disclaimer === I have no qualifications, job experience, professional association, licences, proofreaders, fact checkers, independent assessors, or sufficient knowledge of your objectives or circumstances. I may own shares or have a vested interest (direct or indirect, positive or negative) in one or more things mentioned in this newsletter. I may have bought or sold things mentioned in this newsletter, or be intending to buy or sell such things. What you think is positive or negative news might be your misinterpretation of badly worded humour. What you infer might not be what I meant to imply, and that's if you infer that I meant to imply anything. The information in this newsletter is general factual information about which you should be sceptical, and may be inaccurate and/or out of date by the time it is written, let alone sent or read. The information on which this newsletter is based might have similar flaws, and because of the random way that I find out most things may not be based on anywhere near a complete view of the world, or may be on subjects, companies, or products about which I am either partially or completely ignorant. This newsletter may not be worth the zero dollars you are paying for it. Nothing in this report should be considered as general advice or personal advice, and should not be considered a recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Pretend that this newsletter is written by one of the more literate of an infinite number of typewriting monkeys who have given up on randomly reproducing the complete works of Shakespeare, and act accordingly by seeking proper financial advice.
I'm so utterly cynical about anything the Chinese have a hand in under the rule of the CCP that my immediate (totally unsubstantiated) reaction is that this Chinese company has got to the Ghanaian minister with graft.
50 pc of Australian gdp support too100% agree. China has their tentacles all over Africa and it's just getting worse. I travelled through Zambia a couple of years ago and just about every shop sign was in Chinese characters. I think China own about 30% of the country, and counting.
As a holder after a huge down, I am glad to see the ministerial sense has returned. Yes, being in Africa, I would not suggest any magic lotion to change the mind .RSG bouncing back today after news that the Ghanaian Minister for Lands and Natural Resources restored their Mining Lease for the Bibiani Gold Mine. The restoration of the lease is subject to the following conditions:
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The whole thing sounds terribly dodgy and is typical of the way business is done in Africa, which is why I no longer invest in mining companies that have large African-based projects. It's just too much of an unnecessary gamble.
“We are very pleased to have come to a quick and amicable resolution which provides clarity and confirmation of (our) mining lease at the Bibiani Gold Mine,” Resolute’s interim CEO Stuart Gale said.
“We look forward to continuing the working relationship which has been developed since announcing the sale in December,” Mr Gale said. “We remain committed to the development of Bibiani and will consider all options available to achieve this.”
I agree @finickyAnother good example of why a lot of investors don't see mining companies as an investment in gold. Debt is one of the things that kept me out of this one. Debt in Africa with innovative automation in mining.
Strong buying volume for March.
I am too biased to be interested by it.
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