Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

RSG - Resolute Mining

another pick for yearly comp - eying off increased production in 2020 - and seeing gold stocks as a haven to escape volatility
 
Some assumptions, a selection of facts, some arithmetic, the questions raised, the resources used. But first a warning to read the terms and conditions referred to in https://shoeshineshare.wordpress.com/2020/03/03/resolute-gold-asxrsg/

Gold price US$1585/oz, A$1 = US$0.65.

30th Jan 2020, reported 1.035b shares on issue.
- Includes 132.7m from Tranche 1 placement.
- Does not include 2020-02-26 announcement of 21m in Share Purchase Plan (SPP).
- Does not include 23m to be issued to directors, chairman, etc., to be issued in week commencing 16th March 2020.
Therefore 1.079b shares on issue as of mid/late March?

Net debt $460m at 31st December 2019.
- Reduced by ~$171m from share issues
- Reduced by somewhere between $100m to $300m from sale of Ravenswood, either in cash or stuff owed to them later. $50m is dependent on the gold price, which will all be paid if the gold price remains near where it is now. $150m is dependent on the amount the new owners make from the new mine.
- Balance sheet does not include $51m in tax debt in Mali which was raised on 27th February 2020 and is in dispute.
Once they settle Ravenswood, if the Mali dispute is settled favourably, are they somewhere between $189m in the black to $11m in the black? As a worst case, this would be $240m in debt, or -$0.222 per share.

All In Sustaining Costs (AISC) available both for Life Of Mine (LOM) average and for 2020 guidance (in different reports), I've used LOM where these were available.
- Syama target 300kozpa (up from 2020 guidance for 260kozpa) @ AISC US$746/oz for margin US$839/oz, target US$251.7m or A$387m. Reduces to A$335m if 2020 guidance of 260kozpa proves to be LOM average.
- Mako LOM average 140kozpa @ AISC US$780/oz for margin US$805/oz, average US$112.7m or A$173.4m.
- Ravenswood ignored as being sold, effectively treated as cash.
- Bibiani development, targets and so on, ignored.
Total revenue minus AISC from just these two is $550.4m or ~$500m with decreased assumption of LOM average at Syama.
The above doesn't consider any value from the exploration grounds, or the investments in other companies, just the earnings from the two major operations.
(Using 2020 guidance figures comes up with earnings about a quarter lower, so the longer-term future of the mine is slightly rosier than the performance in the next year.)

Last year costs were $20m admin, $20m exploration, $67m operating costs relating to gold sales, $108m depreciation and amortisation relating to gold sales, $48m net finance costs. The first three bring the $500m down to $393m. Finance costs presumably have been reduced, although the SPP might cost a few million. Similar depreciation would bring the taxable amount down to $285m, after-tax ~$200m.

There are "assets" of $83m exploration, $777m development, $442m property, plant and equipment, which adds (incorrectly due to rounding) to $1301m. This is slightly more than the market capitalisation and around their Enterprise Value (although just because you've spent it doesn't mean you've got value from it). So there's plenty of future depreciation available and already paid for. If you consider the sum of the Net Profit After Tax and the amount you depreciate out (because depreciation reduced tax but not cash flow), you get $308m.

7.4Moz Reserves, 19.1Moz Resources. Without Ravenswood, 4.68Moz Reserves, 11.87Moz Resources.
At current production rates by simple and not really valid division you get over 11 years of average life from Reserves without any conversion.
Syama is set for 14 years, Mako for 7 years.

$200m would mean Earnings Per Share of $0.185.

The last share price was $0.94. If you talk Enterprise Value (EV) with the worst case debt, the EV is $1.162.

So if you ignore the money earned to cancel out the depreciation, you assume the least amount of money from selling Ravenswood, you assume that Bibiani is worth zero, you ignore all the exploration grounds, you get an EV/E of 6.28.

Some (but not all) questions:
- Is the above an accurate and realistic way of looking at Resolute?
- Between the Syama roaster failure, the acquisition of Toro Gold (with the Mako project), the ramp up of Syama, Resolute reported a loss for 2019. Was that a real loss, or an accounting loss, or just the loss as Syama is building up to capacity and Mako bought?
- Is looking at the Life Of Mine too much for most people and they prefer to look at the slightly worse figures from just one year ahead?
- Although Resolute doesn't look like a zombie, since maybe one year of earnings will pay off its debt, will any need to refinance midyear be a risk if corporate debt becomes a dirty word?
- Is the lack of a dividend, the last dividend being in August 2018, a negative factor?
- What have I missed?

The sources used included the following.
- Appendix 4E Preliminary Final Report, 28th February 2020
- Details of Voting at EGM, 27th February 2020
- Completion of Share Purchase Plan, 26th February 2020
- BMO Conference Presentation, 26th February 2020
- Mining Indaba Presentation, 4th February 2020
- Sales of Ravenswood Gold Mine, 15th January 2020

Now for those of you who didn't go and read the disclaimer, here it is.

Disclaimer === I have no qualifications, job experience, professional association, licences, proofreaders, fact checkers, independent assessors, or sufficient knowledge of your objectives or circumstances. I may own shares or have a vested interest (direct or indirect, positive or negative) in one or more things mentioned in this newsletter. I may have bought or sold things mentioned in this newsletter, or be intending to buy or sell such things. What you think is positive or negative news might be your misinterpretation of badly worded humour. What you infer might not be what I meant to imply, and that's if you infer that I meant to imply anything. The information in this newsletter is general factual information about which you should be sceptical, and may be inaccurate and/or out of date by the time it is written, let alone sent or read. The information on which this newsletter is based might have similar flaws, and because of the random way that I find out most things may not be based on anywhere near a complete view of the world, or may be on subjects, companies, or products about which I am either partially or completely ignorant. This newsletter may not be worth the zero dollars you are paying for it. Nothing in this report should be considered as general advice or personal advice, and should not be considered a recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Pretend that this newsletter is written by one of the more literate of an infinite number of typewriting monkeys who have given up on randomly reproducing the complete works of Shakespeare, and act accordingly by seeking proper financial advice.
 
Some assumptions, a selection of facts, some arithmetic, the questions raised, the resources used. But first a warning to read the terms and conditions referred to in https://shoeshineshare.wordpress.com/2020/03/03/resolute-gold-asxrsg/

Gold price US$1585/oz, A$1 = US$0.65.

30th Jan 2020, reported 1.035b shares on issue.
- Includes 132.7m from Tranche 1 placement.
- Does not include 2020-02-26 announcement of 21m in Share Purchase Plan (SPP).
- Does not include 23m to be issued to directors, chairman, etc., to be issued in week commencing 16th March 2020.
Therefore 1.079b shares on issue as of mid/late March?

Net debt $460m at 31st December 2019.
- Reduced by ~$171m from share issues
- Reduced by somewhere between $100m to $300m from sale of Ravenswood, either in cash or stuff owed to them later. $50m is dependent on the gold price, which will all be paid if the gold price remains near where it is now. $150m is dependent on the amount the new owners make from the new mine.
- Balance sheet does not include $51m in tax debt in Mali which was raised on 27th February 2020 and is in dispute.
Once they settle Ravenswood, if the Mali dispute is settled favourably, are they somewhere between $189m in the black to $11m in the black? As a worst case, this would be $240m in debt, or -$0.222 per share.

All In Sustaining Costs (AISC) available both for Life Of Mine (LOM) average and for 2020 guidance (in different reports), I've used LOM where these were available.
- Syama target 300kozpa (up from 2020 guidance for 260kozpa) @ AISC US$746/oz for margin US$839/oz, target US$251.7m or A$387m. Reduces to A$335m if 2020 guidance of 260kozpa proves to be LOM average.
- Mako LOM average 140kozpa @ AISC US$780/oz for margin US$805/oz, average US$112.7m or A$173.4m.
- Ravenswood ignored as being sold, effectively treated as cash.
- Bibiani development, targets and so on, ignored.
Total revenue minus AISC from just these two is $550.4m or ~$500m with decreased assumption of LOM average at Syama.
The above doesn't consider any value from the exploration grounds, or the investments in other companies, just the earnings from the two major operations.
(Using 2020 guidance figures comes up with earnings about a quarter lower, so the longer-term future of the mine is slightly rosier than the performance in the next year.)

Last year costs were $20m admin, $20m exploration, $67m operating costs relating to gold sales, $108m depreciation and amortisation relating to gold sales, $48m net finance costs. The first three bring the $500m down to $393m. Finance costs presumably have been reduced, although the SPP might cost a few million. Similar depreciation would bring the taxable amount down to $285m, after-tax ~$200m.

There are "assets" of $83m exploration, $777m development, $442m property, plant and equipment, which adds (incorrectly due to rounding) to $1301m. This is slightly more than the market capitalisation and around their Enterprise Value (although just because you've spent it doesn't mean you've got value from it). So there's plenty of future depreciation available and already paid for. If you consider the sum of the Net Profit After Tax and the amount you depreciate out (because depreciation reduced tax but not cash flow), you get $308m.

7.4Moz Reserves, 19.1Moz Resources. Without Ravenswood, 4.68Moz Reserves, 11.87Moz Resources.
At current production rates by simple and not really valid division you get over 11 years of average life from Reserves without any conversion.
Syama is set for 14 years, Mako for 7 years.

$200m would mean Earnings Per Share of $0.185.

The last share price was $0.94. If you talk Enterprise Value (EV) with the worst case debt, the EV is $1.162.

So if you ignore the money earned to cancel out the depreciation, you assume the least amount of money from selling Ravenswood, you assume that Bibiani is worth zero, you ignore all the exploration grounds, you get an EV/E of 6.28.

Some (but not all) questions:
- Is the above an accurate and realistic way of looking at Resolute?
- Between the Syama roaster failure, the acquisition of Toro Gold (with the Mako project), the ramp up of Syama, Resolute reported a loss for 2019. Was that a real loss, or an accounting loss, or just the loss as Syama is building up to capacity and Mako bought?
- Is looking at the Life Of Mine too much for most people and they prefer to look at the slightly worse figures from just one year ahead?
- Although Resolute doesn't look like a zombie, since maybe one year of earnings will pay off its debt, will any need to refinance midyear be a risk if corporate debt becomes a dirty word?
- Is the lack of a dividend, the last dividend being in August 2018, a negative factor?
- What have I missed?

The sources used included the following.
- Appendix 4E Preliminary Final Report, 28th February 2020
- Details of Voting at EGM, 27th February 2020
- Completion of Share Purchase Plan, 26th February 2020
- BMO Conference Presentation, 26th February 2020
- Mining Indaba Presentation, 4th February 2020
- Sales of Ravenswood Gold Mine, 15th January 2020

Now for those of you who didn't go and read the disclaimer, here it is.

Disclaimer === I have no qualifications, job experience, professional association, licences, proofreaders, fact checkers, independent assessors, or sufficient knowledge of your objectives or circumstances. I may own shares or have a vested interest (direct or indirect, positive or negative) in one or more things mentioned in this newsletter. I may have bought or sold things mentioned in this newsletter, or be intending to buy or sell such things. What you think is positive or negative news might be your misinterpretation of badly worded humour. What you infer might not be what I meant to imply, and that's if you infer that I meant to imply anything. The information in this newsletter is general factual information about which you should be sceptical, and may be inaccurate and/or out of date by the time it is written, let alone sent or read. The information on which this newsletter is based might have similar flaws, and because of the random way that I find out most things may not be based on anywhere near a complete view of the world, or may be on subjects, companies, or products about which I am either partially or completely ignorant. This newsletter may not be worth the zero dollars you are paying for it. Nothing in this report should be considered as general advice or personal advice, and should not be considered a recommendation or opinion about any financial product. Pretend that this newsletter is written by one of the more literate of an infinite number of typewriting monkeys who have given up on randomly reproducing the complete works of Shakespeare, and act accordingly by seeking proper financial advice.
@shoeshineshare - first of all what a fantastic analysis and detail and the disclaimer.
It is definitely an under utilization of the skills being used as a shoeshiner :)
In short - an excellent analysis and I wonder how could the directors, CFO and other whiz kids have missed it unless was deliberately missed. But there are investors and fundies - what the hell they did not consider. Surely our analytics on this forum will give more thoughts as I am only a miner.
Couple of side comments - you quoted Shakespeare. In Australia it is a wrong quote. I used to quote Shakespeare back in 1992-94 days - very fresh from an overseas country with non English speaking background. But subsequently realised then many of my colleagues have not read a single paragraph from Shakespeare. So it was wrong environment of 'English Speaking people' and I was a non English.
When I made a genuine spell error - I was called as ignorant or using Archaic English. I do recognise it was archaic as English has not changed since British left our country to be independent back in 1947 and the English literature never progressed to its modern form.
However, when some of my English speaking colleagues erred then it was always a 'typo'. Ha Ha. Now I also make typos :). All part of side fun and apology for the same. Lets moving on.
Returning to RSG topic once again a price lesser than $1, gives me an opportunity to re-enter.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200226/pdf/44fgygndjtrvck.pdf
 
I'm so utterly cynical about anything the Chinese have a hand in under the rule of the CCP that my immediate (totally unsubstantiated) reaction is that this Chinese company has got to the Ghanaian minister with graft.

The timing - how convenient that the bulk of the payment for Bibiani was to occur in March. What is Chifeng after? A cheaper deal using lower gold prices as an excuse? A cheaper deal on a now unlicensed mine? The return of their deposit? Scheming swine. Experienced it before: they put a foot on an asset then scheme a way to get it cheaper than the memorandums, letters or heads of agreement state. Zero good faith or good will. Don't eat their food, don't buy their products and if they're sniffing around your listed company, run.

December 2020

"Shanghai Stock Exchange listed Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co. Ltd (Chifeng) acquisition of the Bibiani Gold Mine in Ghana from Resolute Mining Limited (Resolute) for USD105 million.

Chijin International (HK) Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Chifeng, has entered into a binding agreement with Western Australia based Resolute to acquire Resolute’s interest in the Bibiani Gold Mine through the purchase of shares in Mensin Bibiani Pty Limited. Chifeng, an international gold mining company, operates five mines, including the world class Sepon gold mine in Laos.

The total cash consideration of USD105 million is comprised of a USD5 million deposit on signing and USD100 million on completion, expected in around March 2021."

Today's Announcement:

Screenshot_20210325-132113_Chrome.jpg


Not Held, thank god
 
I'm so utterly cynical about anything the Chinese have a hand in under the rule of the CCP that my immediate (totally unsubstantiated) reaction is that this Chinese company has got to the Ghanaian minister with graft.

100% agree. China has their tentacles all over Africa and it's just getting worse. I travelled through Zambia a couple of years ago and just about every shop sign was in Chinese characters. I think China own about 30% of the country, and counting.
 
100% agree. China has their tentacles all over Africa and it's just getting worse. I travelled through Zambia a couple of years ago and just about every shop sign was in Chinese characters. I think China own about 30% of the country, and counting.
50 pc of Australian gdp support too
 
RSG bouncing back today after news that the Ghanaian Minister for Lands and Natural Resources restored their Mining Lease for the Bibiani Gold Mine. The restoration of the lease is subject to the following conditions:

RSG140421.png


The whole thing sounds terribly dodgy and is typical of the way business is done in Africa, which is why I no longer invest in mining companies that have large African-based projects. It's just too much of an unnecessary gamble.
 
RSG bouncing back today after news that the Ghanaian Minister for Lands and Natural Resources restored their Mining Lease for the Bibiani Gold Mine. The restoration of the lease is subject to the following conditions:

View attachment 122788

The whole thing sounds terribly dodgy and is typical of the way business is done in Africa, which is why I no longer invest in mining companies that have large African-based projects. It's just too much of an unnecessary gamble.
As a holder after a huge down, I am glad to see the ministerial sense has returned. Yes, being in Africa, I would not suggest any magic lotion to change the mind .
However, I would not generalise African industries being dodgy. Not long ago - African industry was proud of mining from South Africa.
Anglo is African based. WAF West African Resources is a great one. I have worked as an expat in a large nickel mine in Africa. The talent and system of that organisation was better than many companies I see in Australia. Those people were all national employees.
Money and politics go hand to hand - be in USA, Canada (yes, I have worked there), Australia (i belong and work here) or be in Africa (yes I have worked here too) . So why segregate or generalise African companies ? I do hold RSG and should have increased stake there.
 
Glen Dyer has an interesting piece;


Gold miner Resolute has regained its Bibiani gold mining lease in Ghana but unfortunately, that is all it has gotten back. The Ghanaian government terminated the lease last month with no notice and no apparent reason. But yesterday Resolute told the ASX the lease had been returned – but with conditions.

One of those conditions placed on the restored lease explains the original decision – the government has retained control over who can buy the lease and in effect has, for the time being, stymied the plan by Resolute to sell the lease to a Chinese company for $US105 million.

The government told Resolute that it cannot sell the Bibiani project to China’s Chifeng Jilong without “express permission”.
That means the government was upset at Resolute’s move last December to see the lease. The company seems to have needlessly upset the government.

In agreeing to return the lease, the Ghanaian government said it did not recognise Resolute’s purported $US105 million sale of the Bibiani Gold Mine to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co, as announced in December. Ghana also “objects to the purported sale or transfer to Chifeng”, and said that the creation of any interest in the mine to Chifeng or any third party will be deemed invalid without the express prior approval of the government. Resolute must also submit to the Ghanaian Minerals Commission an environmental report on the mine and a detailed plan for its redevelopment.

Resolute says it intends to comply with the conditions imposed by the Minister.

“We are very pleased to have come to a quick and amicable resolution which provides clarity and confirmation of (our) mining lease at the Bibiani Gold Mine,” Resolute’s interim CEO Stuart Gale said.

Mr Gale said he was looking forward to working with the minister and the Minerals Commission to identify a development option at Bibiani which sees the mine resuming production as quickly as possible. He also thanked Chifeng “for their patience during this process.”
“We look forward to continuing the working relationship which has been developed since announcing the sale in December,” Mr Gale said. “We remain committed to the development of Bibiani and will consider all options available to achieve this.”

It seems Resolute now wants to be the owner. That was a decision investors were happy with – Resolute shares bounced more than 14% by the close yesterday, ending at 54 cents.

 
Good morning

A million
1f642@2x.png
announcements today (10/11/22) for RSG.
In short: Resolute will 'tap investors on the shoulder' for up to $200m to help ease its debt burden and shore up its balance sheet. RSG is the owner of two gold mines in Africa and has launched an institutional placement and 1-for-1.11 accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer at 16c a share to "strengthen its balance sheet and provide a financial platform for growth".

An underwritten component of $140m is aimed at reducing its net debt position from $US156m to $US65m. The additonal $60m from a non-underwritten retail entitlement offer will also be used to further reduce debt, provide general working capital and fund growth initiatives, including the potential expansion optionality at its Syama mine in West Africa.
Chief executive Terry Holohan said Resolute's performance has steadily improved with four consecutive quarters of increased production.
"This equity raising is the final step in Resolute's transition to a sustainable gold producer with a de-risked balance sheet."

There is a trading halt in place.

Not holding - looking more into this. Kindly conduct your own due diligence and have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
Another good example of why a lot of investors don't see mining companies as an investment in gold. Debt is one of the things that kept me out of this one. Debt in Africa with innovative automation in mining.
I agree @finicky

I played Gold stocks when Gold was rising last year and the variables of the companies added to the variables of Gold near did my head in.

My only exposure to Gold stocks is GOR, and that is a small exposure in a trading account.

From my experience it's a Buffett story, buy low when all is doom, sell high when all is joy. I'd not be buying Gold stocks now.

gg
 
Good afternoon
52 week low today (14/11/22), plenty of buyers...

Resolute Mining completes the bookbuild for the placement and institutional entitlement offer to raise about $96m, the company says.
The placement raised about $41m through the issue of about 258 million new shares in the company at an offer price of $0.16 per share.

The institutional entitlement offer and shortfall bookbuild for entitlements not taken up raised about $55m through the issue of about 342 million new shares. After receiving significant demand, the underwritten component of the equity raising has been increased from $140m to $164m, Resolute said.

About $144m of the proceeds will be used to reduce net debt and $20m will fund general working capital, the costs of the equity raising and to support the company’s Syama North expansion plan.

Resolute said the equity raising was anchored by a new international investor, Condire Management, which has been offered the right to appoint a nominee to the board of Resolute whilst their shareholding remains above 15 per cent.

However, Condire has advised Resolute it does not intend to accept the offer at the current time.

Not holding

Kind regards
rcw1
 
Looked at the longer term chart this am and thought oooo that looks like the start of a nice rounded bottom. Short term has risen off 18c lows to 30c in 3 months but way off highs..

Sprott still ramping it with a PT double the current price.

What's been the problem here? Anyone over it?

Screenshot 2023-03-15 at 9.14.35 am.png


Screenshot 2023-03-15 at 9.14.55 am.png

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