Silver price discussion and analysis

[Sean K]

Lots of volatility lately for silver, and I doubt it's going to stop any time soon. It generally follows gold's pattern with different amplitude, but it has diverged lately. Gold is seeing a run this year for several reasons, some align with silver (safe haven/store of wealth, some run against silver (silver is also an industrial commodity to a far greater extent). The silver price doesn't know which way to run. I've never been in precious metals before this year, I conceptually don't like arbitrary assignment of value to something which gets stored as inert bars, but it was just clear that they were both good buys earlier this year so I jumped in. Gold is a more sure thing, silver more risky but with much more potential upside. Silver's zigs and zags are harder to predict but it should do well over the longer term.

I'm not 100% sure it will play out but I have a TA target around US$40 for silver, maybe very roughly by late 2025. Potentially it could go a lot higher if things fall into place.

Gold has been hitting multiple all time highs lately, but silver is still nowhere near its all time high hit in January 2011 of almost US$50, and it even hit close to $50 back on new year's day 1980. I doubt it will happen but it wouldn't be the strangest thing if silver hit $70-80 in the next year or two, and relative to that there's very little down side.

Gold is a funny rock. You dig it up and put it on your neck, or dig a hole and put it back in the ground for safe keeping.

Silver seems to have many more industrial uses now so it's a bit different.

But historically, as a PM, it seems to have lagged gold, but when it moves, it moves fast. I'm trusting RR on this one.



Spot silver last traded at $29.34 per ounce, up more than 1% on the day.

The new momentum is helping to decrease the gold/silver ratio, which had rallied significantly since early July. The gold/silver ratio is currently trading at 85.5 points, down sharply from last week’s high of around 90 points.

Christopher Lewis, senior market analyst at FXEmpire, said in a note on Monday that he expects silver’s upward momentum is just beginning, and any selling pressure should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

“In general, this is a market that I think will continue to experience a lot of volatility, but I still believe that the overall trend favors the upside,” he stated in the note.

Joaquin Monfort, a market analyst at FXStreet.com, identified some near-term resistance at $29.23 per ounce. However, he added that if the current momentum persists, he expects prices to rise back above $30 per ounce.

Unlike gold, silver has been unable to maintain consistent bullish momentum in the current market environment. Some analysts point out that this is due to its sensitivity to the global economy, given its industrial demand. While lower interest rates would support silver as a monetary metal, the threat of an economic slowdown could keep investors cautious.

However, analysts have noted that even in an economic downturn, the silver market faces a significant supply and demand imbalance, which is expected to continue supporting higher prices.

 

[mullokintyre]

So the next piece in the boost silver plan is underway.
Mainstream media (well, some of us consider the ABC as part of the MSM) have started the silver is about to go stories.
From ABC News

Apart ffrom Horizon above, other companies graced with a mention are SS1, ASL .
Miners such as ARD, MKR and the recently crippled SVL did not rate a mention.
Mick

 

[greggles]

Very powerful move from silver overnight taking it above US$32. The bullishness looks set to continue in the lead up to the US Presidential election. Have we seen the last of silver under US$30, or will it revisit US$29 at some point down the track?

 

[Sdajii]

Very powerful move from silver overnight taking it above US$32. The bullishness looks set to continue in the lead up to the US Presidential election. Have we seen the last of silver under US$30, or will it revisit US$29 at some point down the track?

Hard to say.

Looking at how the election will effect gold, a Trump victory will probably be bad for gold and not so bad for silver. I'm expecting a Harris victory (they're clearly willing to go to absurd extents to prevent Trump from winning, no doubt Trump will get the vote but they'll do whatever it takes to ensure Harris 'wins'), and we all know that's going to mean four more years of the destruction of the USA and the $US, which will mean an increase in a gold price measured in $US just by default, but also the $US will not the the safe haven it was once seen as, with gold being an attractive alternative. A Trump victory would mean a stronger US economy, a more attractive $US, less war/global conflict (those suffering from TDS seem to forget that Obama was a massive war monger, and Trump hugely reduced global conflicts and reduced global tensions, which escalated again when the Democrats got back in). Trump may be a jerk by character and a self-interested corporate sellout, but clearly he is good for the American (and thus to a significant extent global) economy and for world peace.

It's definitely going to be an interesting couple of months.

 

[greggles]

Silver looks primed to take a crack at US$32 tonight. It needs to push through this level with conviction and get above US$32.20 to break through existing resistance around US$32.15.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

@greggles @Sean K @mullokintyre The silver chart reminds me of the gold chart before the latter took off.

All the best for tonight you silvery members.

gg

 

[ducati916]

Silver



jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

@greggles @Sean K @mullokintyre The silver chart reminds me of the gold chart before the latter took off.

All the best for tonight you silvery members.

gg

Thank you. I expect ETPMAG to take over some of my gold holdings once silver breaks $32.20.

 

[qldfrog]

Silver



jog on
duc

Thanks god i am not in China or Russia.. Currently in France and unable to open subversive and complotist links from Monsieur @Ducati

 

[greggles]

Silver breaking out tonight to highs not seen since 2012. Currently at US$32.56.

I've been watching the one minute chart and everything being put out for sale is getting picked up quickly by eager buyers. Attempts are being made to push the price back down but nothing is working for long tonight. Will be interesting to see where it finishes the day. If it's at its or near its high for the day that will be a very bullish sign for next week.

 

[Sdajii]

Silver breaking out tonight to highs not seen since 2012. Currently at US$32.56.

I've been watching the one minute chart and everything being put out for sale is getting picked up quickly by eager buyers. Attempts are being made to push the price back down but nothing is working for long tonight. Will be interesting to see where it finishes the day. If it's at its or near its high for the day that will be a very bullish sign for next week.

Not seen since 2012... except for earlier this month. And last month. And about the same as tonight back in May this year.

It's a nice rally and I'm hoping to see it hit a fresh multi year high, but it's not there yet, not even a high for the month. I'll be thrilled to wake up tomorrow and see we did get there. Not sure if it'll happen tonight, but I expect to see it before the end of the year.

 

[Sdajii]

Well, happy days, I didn't have to wake up to see it! Just after midnight local time where I am, we made the new multi year high, and topped US$33!

 

[Sean K]

A pretty impressive breakthrough that $32.20 ish zone.

 

[greggles]

Not seen since 2012... except for earlier this month. And last month. And about the same as tonight back in May this year.

It's a nice rally and I'm hoping to see it hit a fresh multi year high, but it's not there yet, not even a high for the month. I'll be thrilled to wake up tomorrow and see we did get there. Not sure if it'll happen tonight, but I expect to see it before the end of the year.

I thought we were at 12 year highs when i posted but I may have overlooked the upper wick of a candlestick or two. In any case, we are there now and with the close of US$33.71 right near the high of the day we may see it go higher next week before the inevitable pull back. A run of to US$35 might be on the cards but I don't think it has any chance of pushing through that level just yet. Too many sellers would jump into the market there.

 

[Sdajii]

I thought we were at 12 year highs when i posted but I may have overlooked the upper wick of a candlestick or two. In any case, we are there now and with the close of US$33.71 right near the high of the day we may see it go higher next week before the inevitable pull back. A run of to US$35 might be on the cards but I don't think it has any chance of pushing through that level just yet. Too many sellers would jump into the market there.

Yes, at the time you posted we were above any daily closing price for the last 12 years, only intraday prices had been above. We decisively made it by the end of the session anyway

I won't make any predictions as bold as saying there isn't any chance of $35 before a pullback; anything is possible after a significant breakout. Gold is pushing out new all time highs with almost regularity these days, while silver is still far below - $48 in January 1980 and just shy of $50 in 2011 I think it was. I have a technical target of around $40 on silver based on a symmetrical triangle we broke out of earlier this year, which is what made me buy in for the first time ever. Looking at silver's two biggest previous runs, when it runs, it really runs.

 

[greggles]

I won't make any predictions as bold as saying there isn't any chance of $35 before a pullback; anything is possible after a significant breakout. Gold is pushing out new all time highs with almost regularity these days, while silver is still far below - $48 in January 1980 and just shy of $50 in 2011 I think it was. I have a technical target of around $40 on silver based on a symmetrical triangle we broke out of earlier this year, which is what made me buy in for the first time ever. Looking at silver's two biggest previous runs, when it runs, it really runs.

Panicked short covering on Monday could push it towards US$35 but that's just speculation. However it plays out we are guaranteed interesting price action next week with plenty of volatility. However some are taking very bullish positions on silver seeing no fundamental downside for the foreseeable future.

Silver has no fundamental downside as the market sees fundamental deficits for the foreseeable future

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.

www.kitco.com

 

[Sdajii]

Panicked short covering on Monday could push it towards US$35 but that's just speculation. However it plays out we are guaranteed interesting price action next week with plenty of volatility. However some are taking very bullish positions on silver seeing no fundamental downside for the foreseeable future.

Silver has no fundamental downside as the market sees fundamental deficits for the foreseeable future

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.

www.kitco.com

Silver I find more difficult to predict than gold, but while I'm less certain, I expect silver to run harder than gold (which was represented in my buying early this year when I went about 2/3 silver 1/3 gold after never touching either before).

I honestly think it's obvious that gold is heading a lot higher. I can't see it failing to at least have a shot at 3k some time next year, and probably higher. Silver is less certain, but if gold is having a go at 3k, I'm pretty sure silver will at least have a go at $40, and I think it's probable that with extreme fundamentals pushing gold to unprecedented highs, it's very likely silver will at least test its previous highs just short of $50. I doubt I'm the only one who sees it like this.

That being the case, it's easy to see it being possible for silver to quite quickly run straight past $35 without slowing down. Looking at silver's history, when it runs it can really, really run, and we're currently in an absolutely extreme fundamental scenario perfect for causing such a run. $50 within a year is definitely a possibility.

I don't agree there's no possibility for any downside with silver, I've seen a few references making that claim lately, but I do think it's very heavily leaning to the bullish side. Huge inflation, global conflict (we should keep in mind a Trump victory will most likely reduce global conflicts quite quickly and dramatically), the collapse of the USD. Again, Trump would no doubt turn the US economy around, so the precious metal run will slow if he wins, but a lot of the damage has already been done over the last four years, all that money printing makes inflation inevitable, and while Trump may be good for the US economy and dollar, he's not a magician and there's only so much he can do. I'd rather be holding precious metals than FIAT at the moment, more so in a Harris win scenario, but still in a Trump scenario. A week ago I was expecting another rigged election and Democrat 'win', but Trump's lead is now looking like it may be too much to fudge through this time.

 

[greggles]

Silver I find more difficult to predict than gold, but while I'm less certain, I expect silver to run harder than gold (which was represented in my buying early this year when I went about 2/3 silver 1/3 gold after never touching either before).

I honestly think it's obvious that gold is heading a lot higher. I can't see it failing to at least have a shot at 3k some time next year, and probably higher. Silver is less certain, but if gold is having a go at 3k, I'm pretty sure silver will at least have a go at $40, and I think it's probable that with extreme fundamentals pushing gold to unprecedented highs, it's very likely silver will at least test its previous highs just short of $50. I doubt I'm the only one who sees it like this.

That being the case, it's easy to see it being possible for silver to quite quickly run straight past $35 without slowing down. Looking at silver's history, when it runs it can really, really run, and we're currently in an absolutely extreme fundamental scenario perfect for causing such a run. $50 within a year is definitely a possibility.

I don't agree there's no possibility for any downside with silver, I've seen a few references making that claim lately, but I do think it's very heavily leaning to the bullish side. Huge inflation, global conflict (we should keep in mind a Trump victory will most likely reduce global conflicts quite quickly and dramatically), the collapse of the USD. Again, Trump would no doubt turn the US economy around, so the precious metal run will slow if he wins, but a lot of the damage has already been done over the last four years, all that money printing makes inflation inevitable, and while Trump may be good for the US economy and dollar, he's not a magician and there's only so much he can do. I'd rather be holding precious metals than FIAT at the moment, more so in a Harris win scenario, but still in a Trump scenario. A week ago I was expecting another rigged election and Democrat 'win', but Trump's lead is now looking like it may be too much to fudge through this time.

Current short positions in silver are still over 660 million ounces. These short positions are now underwater by an estimated $1.3 billion. The bulk of these short positions are concentrated among five US banks. If even a small percentage of these positions are unwound it could lead to frenzied buying. The problem is these are mostly naked short positions, and the silver isn't there.

I don't know whats in the mind of those who currently are short silver but it's a pretty risky position to be in right now and short covering could lead to further bullish price action in the near term.

 

[mullokintyre]

Current short positions in silver are still over 660 million ounces. These short positions are now underwater by an estimated $1.3 billion. The bulk of these short positions are concentrated among five US banks. If even a small percentage of these positions are unwound it could lead to frenzied buying. The problem is these are mostly naked short positions, and the silver isn't there.

I don't know whats in the mind of those who currently are short silver but it's a pretty risky position to be in right now and short covering could lead to further bullish price action in the near term.

IHMO , we may as well wait fort Godot as wait for the demise of PM price fixing system.
The fed will open a new version of TARP window and lend them enough money to just keep shorting silver till the silver comes back to where they want it to be.
There is little doubt that the US govt is the counterparty to many of these shorted positions, it suits them to keep gold and silver within a range.
The CFTC hs been bombarded for years by GATA, people like Chuck Casey and keith Nuemeyer, but the toothless tiger has let the big four banks get away with it for years.
What is going to force the CFTC to step in now?
It is not in the interest of the US administration , the Fed, the big Banks or the CFTC to fix the up the blatant PM manipulation problem up.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Current short positions in silver are still over 660 million ounces. These short positions are now underwater by an estimated $1.3 billion. The bulk of these short positions are concentrated among five US banks. If even a small percentage of these positions are unwound it could lead to frenzied buying. The problem is these are mostly naked short positions, and the silver isn't there.

I don't know whats in the mind of those who currently are short silver but it's a pretty risky position to be in right now and short covering could lead to further bullish price action in the near term.

Very interesting set up. I wonder if JPM is still short and also buying for China. They could be caught with their pants down and the board is sitting overnight like a Margin Call scenario.

Or, Friday was just a blip and the likes of RR and the rest of Sprott start taking profits. They called this ages ago and were heavily set. Once the general market jumps in, they will cash in and buy another house in the vineyards.