Trading the Bounce

[frugal.rock]

By the way just received my cruise refund, so Carnival must be hanging in there.

Hanging in there?
Of course you will get your refund. Carnival mostly owned by the Chinese Communist party.
The belt and roads plot thickens... and can't be seen to be running out of funds.

 

[sptrawler]

Hanging in there?
Of course you will get your refund. Carnival mostly owned by the Chinese Communist party.
The belt and roads plot thickens... and can't be seen to be running out of funds.

Is that right, I thought it was a majority U.S company.
Just checked wiki, spot on joint venture between American cruise line Carnival Corporation & plc, Chinese sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corporation.
Good pick up, as you say, no wonder the refund came.

 

[over9k]

Anyone else buy on the ASX yesterday arvo? Tons of green all morning now.

It's almost as if everyone have now realised that yesterday's panic selloff was a bit silly...

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Anyone else buy on the ASX yesterday arvo? Tons of green all morning now.

It's almost as if everyone have now realised that yesterday's panic selloff was a bit silly...

US FED to the rescue again buddy. Last night global equities would have cratered if Powell didn't give the reassurance that the FED will backstop the entire market.

 

[gartley]

We have been living in a world of "managed markets" since the GFC. The FED will eventually fail and all the are doing is postponing nature taking it's course...

 

[over9k]

I wish you were right - the USD being the world's trading/reserve currency means that they can abuse it like nothing else (which they are) with depressingly few problems. It's a safe haven for a reason.

The next major news are virus spikes and employment data - virus data comes in all the time but employment data is on first friday of every month. I'm expecting some bad virus data between now & the 3rd on account of the virus spread from the riots and I'm expecting it to be bad enough to effect the markets.

 

[qldfrog]

We have been living in a world of "managed markets" since the GFC. The FED will eventually fail and all the are doing is postponing nature taking it's course...

we all agree so let's use this knowledge to one's profit instead of being skinned alive

 

[waterbottle]

we all agree so let's use this knowledge to one's profit instead of being skinned alive

Indeed.

The biggest take home lesson for me during the GFC was that governments will stop at nothing to keep asset prices inflated. The alternative is literally economic, social and political turmoil.
The sooner i accepted that, the easier it was too understand why markets behaved the way they did.

Coronavirus was an uncontrollable factor. It wasn't a man-made phenomenon (or at least the consequences weren't).

And if you're in the camp that thinks this will all crash once stimulus is withdrawn, ask yourself why that is?
Consider this: the US feds funds rate peaked at 2.5%. they began tightening monetary policy in 2016, 8 years post GFC, but tightening nonetheless. Then what happened? Markets reached all time highs in 2019.

Crises come and go. We live in a society where inflation is critical to production. So long as central banks are mandated to aim for maximal employment and 2-3% inflation, the markets will be ok in the long run.

 

[basilio]

The biggest take home lesson for me during the GFC was that governments will stop at nothing to keep asset prices inflated. The alternative is literally economic, social and political turmoil.
The sooner i accepted that, the easier it was too understand why markets behaved the way they did.

Ok so on this principle one is saying that underlying realities of profitability of a business are no longer drivers of share prices. As long as one can stay convinced of a steadily increasing stock market and convince new people to buy into that premise then it will all be hunky dory.

And to help achieve that nirvana we have to believe governments and central banks will create trillions of dollars of stimulus to keep the market fully supported.

What could possibly go wrong ?

 

[qldfrog]

Ok so on this principle one is saying that underlying realities of profitability of a business are no longer drivers of share prices. As long as one can stay convinced of a steadily increasing stock market and convince new people to buy into that premise then it will all be hunky dory.

And to help achieve that nirvana we have to believe governments and central banks will create trillions of dollars of stimulus to keep the market fully supported.

What could possibly go wrong ?

Well @basilio, that is the difference between ideology and facts...
From global warming to QE...or here economy
As long as you do understand that since Brentwood, money is a fabrication, everything is actually making sense.
Does not mean you and i agree on the foundations..or absence of..but guess what we are in this world and an extreme version since gfc.
If people can join by millions the myth of BLM, it is not hard to make them live and work for Monopoly money..

 

[RazzaDazzla]

XJO showing

XJO showing an ABC correction to the 61.8% Fib.

Zooming in and looking at hourly charts, the recent strength is just shy of 61.8% Fib.

Downwards from here?

 

[makteb]

Hi Razza

I'm not familiar with 1hr chart of XJO. I am of the understanding your a day trader thus the hr chart is significant as oppose to the daily chart?

 

[makteb]

I did note the daily chart, more in reference to your hourly comment.

 

[over9k]

The second major virus data hits is the second the bloodbath begins. There's also speculation RE: trump's trillion of infrastructure actually getting funded (approved by house/senate). IIRC the democrats want the money spent elsewhere.

All of this means more uncertainty.

 

[aus_trader]

Do we know more about this infrastructure proposal ?
Where is it going to ? Roads, Bridges and Hospitals and other Public facilities or is he trying to compete with China by building Ghost cities/dwellings/skyscrapers ?

 

[Smurf1976]

Where is it going to ? Roads, Bridges and Hospitals and other Public facilities or is he trying to compete with China by building Ghost cities/dwellings/skyscrapers ?

The other question - is it to be infrastructure funded by government for the use of the public and business?

Or is it infrastructure effectively gifted to a private owner who then generates revenue from it?

If the latter then owning shares in relevant companies might be worthwhile.

 

[over9k]

Nah it's fixing existing stuff - crumbling bridges, worn out roads etc. They've been banging on about this since election time.

 

[gartley]

we all agree so let's use this knowledge to one's profit instead of being skinned alive

Choppy market so far this week, despite the bounce after the big drop last Thursday market is struggling to move higher and my 2c worth correction does not look complete. SPX 20D Nominal cycle still has an oustanding projection 2862-2907 and probably lower to the 2828. Came close to invalidating but did not. I think we might start moving lower tonight or tomorrow.

 

[Smurf1976]

SPX 20D Nominal cycle still has an oustanding projection 2862-2907 and probably lower to the 2828.

To clarify - you're expecting it to drop to that level and then resume the up trend if I'm understanding correctly?

 

[sptrawler]

Choppy market so far this week, despite the bounce after the big drop last Thursday market is struggling to move higher and my 2c worth correction does not look complete. SPX 20D Nominal cycle still has an oustanding projection 2862-2907 and probably lower to the 2828. Came close to invalidating but did not. I think we might start moving lower tonight or tomorrow.

Well gartley, you and proper and a couple of others did say an upswing to 6,000 on the ASX then there will be resistance, that call has been spot on.