US Unemployment

[noirua]

Gold prices hold near all-time highs as US weekly jobless claims rise to 243K

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Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 243,000 for the week ended July 13 the Labor Department said on Thursday. According to consensus estimates, economists forecasted a more muted increase to 229,000 claims. Last week’s data was revised up to 223,000.

Unemployment claims have risen to their highest level since early August 2023.
Not only are American workers starting to lose their jobs, but it is becoming increasingly more difficult to find new employment.

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Some early signs of a downturn in midsummer do not look good for the winter ahead going into the Election.

 

[mullokintyre]

US Initial Jobs Claims heading up to the highest level since last August.
From Zero Hedge



And the number of Americans continuing to claim unemployment benefits rose to 1.877 million last week - the highest since Nov 2021.



Is it enough for a rate cut in September?
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

US Initial Jobs Claims heading up to the highest level since last August.
From Zero Hedge
View attachment 181827


And the number of Americans continuing to claim unemployment benefits rose to 1.877 million last week - the highest since Nov 2021.
View attachment 181828


Is it enough for a rate cut in September?
Mick

only winning an election matters

Trump might finally be angry enough to end the Fed , and replace Janet as well

 

[mullokintyre]

The ADP employment figures tbhat came out as a precursor to the BLS figures out tonight did not paint a great picture.
from Zero Hedge



Be interesting to see what spin the BLS puts on the figures.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

The ADP employment figures tbhat came out as a precursor to the BLS figures out tonight did not paint a great picture.
from Zero Hedge

View attachment 181857
View attachment 181858
Be interesting to see what spin the BLS puts on the figures.
Mick

at last the trend is matching up with the business snippets ( of business closures and staff reductions )

is the trend now too obvious to hide ?

 

[mullokintyre]

Todays JOLTS reports for July has the usual revisions for the previous month.
Job openings (7.167 million) plunged deeply from June figures ( 8.184 Million).
Buts ok, because June figures were revised much lower to 7.9 million.
About 70% of the new jobs were artificially created by the BLS seasonal adjustments black box.
I am betting that Friday's employment stats will be a shocker, especially as the BLS have already admitted that their stats are questionable.




Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Septembers JOLTS report was a bit of a shocker in that the job openings fell by some 600k from the previous months high of 8million.
Job openings are now around the same level they were in 2018.
And this despite huge numbers of immigranyts into the US in that period.


What was unsurprising in that once again the previous periods reported numbers were revised downwards from 8 million to 7.8 million.
The big losers have been construction jobs.


In an ominous sign, the number of job openings is heading down to meet the unemployed numbers,and will likely cross over into negative territory, a situation not seen since the COVID times.
Mick