Market Crash 2025

[divs4ever]

?????View attachment 196915??????

any members getting margin warning from their platforms ? ( i don't have margin loans )

but yep that is what Commsec is saying ( -331 )

 

[Dona Ferentes]

margin calls come at 2pm ...

rotation .. nope
liquidation . some
capitulation... maybe
counterparty risk .. to be revealed
solvency risk ... not just yet

PS Only just getting into margin call 2.0 territory. A relatively orderly drop from 17/2 to first low 4 weeks later .... but this week may be different

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I believe we will follow the US markets and the talk is bearish there. I can't stand American financial youtubes but this guy is better than most. He has been sensible in the past and gives some good commentary to the investing community. This is his assessment after Friday's session in the USA.




His site is https://alphatrends.net , it's too expensive for me to be a paying member. He also posts on a few free stock sites. Do a duckduck search on him.

He's bearish on everything atm.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

Humpty Dumpty Was Pushed​

Humpty Dumpty Was Pushed - Hussman Funds

In recent years, our most reliable measures of stock market valuation have pushed beyond their 1929 and 2000 peaks, and I’ve described the period since early 2022 as the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history. In my view, that process is now complete. The stock...

www.hussmanfunds.com

now overall i am bearish .. but i have seen so many interventions of various types recently ( in the last 8 years ) i half-expect another covert lifeline to keep this all going

( and why i resisted BBOZ and BBUS after the markets hit recent record highs )

 

[sptrawler]

Well the margin calls would have been rolled out today, one would think.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Well the margin calls would have been rolled out today, one would think.

@Dona Ferentes mentioned 2pm was a significant time for margin holders effect on the market.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

The market is particularly busy right now, so it's taking longer than usual for orders to be processed. We're experiencing high trading activity and call volumes through our contact centres. You may experience a delay loading market data on our website, and may have to wait longer than usual to speak to someone. Thank you for your patience. 11:05am, 7/4/2025

@commsec

 

[basilio]

Humpty Dumpty Was Pushed​

Humpty Dumpty Was Pushed - Hussman Funds

In recent years, our most reliable measures of stock market valuation have pushed beyond their 1929 and 2000 peaks, and I’ve described the period since early 2022 as the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history. In my view, that process is now complete. The stock...

www.hussmanfunds.com

now overall i am bearish .. but i have seen so many interventions of various types recently ( in the last 8 years ) i half-expect another covert lifeline to keep this all going

( and why i resisted BBOZ and BBUS after the markets hit recent record highs )

That is an exceptional piece of analysis Divs. Well worth checking out.
I am pasting in one section that took my eye.
..................................................................................................................................

On deficits, corporate profits, and subversion masquerading as statesmanship​

It’s striking how little Wall Street analysts recognize the extent to which the government deficits of recent decades have contributed, directly and indirectly, to record corporate profits. As I discussed in last month’s comment, The Government Deficits Land in the Deepest Pockets, from 2016 through 2020, $8.4 trillion in new 10-year deficit spending was approved – a combination of tax cuts and net spending increases, with about $3.6 trillion of that related to pandemic response. From 2020 through 2024, another $4.3 trillion in 10-year deficit spending was approved, about $2.1 trillion of that being pandemic response (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget).

Government deficits are always matched by surpluses in other sectors (income in excess of consumption and net investment). The chart below shows how this works from an accounting standpoint. This is a version of a chart I presented last month. In this case, the blue line shows U.S. corporate free cash flow (after tax profits minus net investment) as a share of GDP. The red line shows the combined surplus (deficit) of other sectors, where the largest component is the federal deficit.





The deterioration in that red line isn’t driven by the 0.1% of GDP the U.S. spends on humanitarian aid, nor the 0.3% of GDP the U.S. spends on supplemental nutrition assistance (SNAP) for the poor. It’s driven by a repeated, persistent tendency to respond to recessions and financial crises with “stimulus” plans that combine tax cuts (as in 2017) with massive, indiscriminately targeted rescue packages (as during the global financial crisis and the pandemic). These crisis-related deficits have been far and away the largest source of expansion in the Federal debt in recent decades. Military spending, particularly in the years following 9/11, has been a secondary contributor.

Whether directly or indirectly, this deficit spending has ultimately emerged in the form of record corporate profits, even while middle-class households accumulate consumer debt and rely on cheap imports in order to make ends meet. Raising tariffs on imports, cutting spending for the poor, minimizing corporate tax rates, and firing all the Inspectors General makes none of this better.

The chart below shows the year-over-year change in the U.S. federal debt to GDP ratio. Notice where the spikes are. The shaded areas are recessions. If we are truly interested in a sustainable federal debt, the first orders of business are to discourage policy distortions that encourage speculation and its inevitable collapse, to ensure that bank capital requirements are sufficient to limit the risk of financial crises, and to demand better targeted stimulus packages, when necessary, that directly encourage capital investment and target lower- and middle-class households with the highest propensities to consume.

Humpty Dumpty Was Pushed - Hussman Funds

In recent years, our most reliable measures of stock market valuation have pushed beyond their 1929 and 2000 peaks, and I’ve described the period since early 2022 as the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history. In my view, that process is now complete. The stock...

www.hussmanfunds.com

 

[divs4ever]

That is an exceptional piece of analysis Divs. Well worth checking out.
I am pasting in one section that took my eye.
..................................................................................................................................

On deficits, corporate profits, and subversion masquerading as statesmanship​

It’s striking how little Wall Street analysts recognize the extent to which the government deficits of recent decades have contributed, directly and indirectly, to record corporate profits. As I discussed in last month’s comment, The Government Deficits Land in the Deepest Pockets, from 2016 through 2020, $8.4 trillion in new 10-year deficit spending was approved – a combination of tax cuts and net spending increases, with about $3.6 trillion of that related to pandemic response. From 2020 through 2024, another $4.3 trillion in 10-year deficit spending was approved, about $2.1 trillion of that being pandemic response (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget).

Government deficits are always matched by surpluses in other sectors (income in excess of consumption and net investment). The chart below shows how this works from an accounting standpoint. This is a version of a chart I presented last month. In this case, the blue line shows U.S. corporate free cash flow (after tax profits minus net investment) as a share of GDP. The red line shows the combined surplus (deficit) of other sectors, where the largest component is the federal deficit.


View attachment 197007


The deterioration in that red line isn’t driven by the 0.1% of GDP the U.S. spends on humanitarian aid, nor the 0.3% of GDP the U.S. spends on supplemental nutrition assistance (SNAP) for the poor. It’s driven by a repeated, persistent tendency to respond to recessions and financial crises with “stimulus” plans that combine tax cuts (as in 2017) with massive, indiscriminately targeted rescue packages (as during the global financial crisis and the pandemic). These crisis-related deficits have been far and away the largest source of expansion in the Federal debt in recent decades. Military spending, particularly in the years following 9/11, has been a secondary contributor.

Whether directly or indirectly, this deficit spending has ultimately emerged in the form of record corporate profits, even while middle-class households accumulate consumer debt and rely on cheap imports in order to make ends meet. Raising tariffs on imports, cutting spending for the poor, minimizing corporate tax rates, and firing all the Inspectors General makes none of this better.

The chart below shows the year-over-year change in the U.S. federal debt to GDP ratio. Notice where the spikes are. The shaded areas are recessions. If we are truly interested in a sustainable federal debt, the first orders of business are to discourage policy distortions that encourage speculation and its inevitable collapse, to ensure that bank capital requirements are sufficient to limit the risk of financial crises, and to demand better targeted stimulus packages, when necessary, that directly encourage capital investment and target lower- and middle-class households with the highest propensities to consume.

Humpty Dumpty Was Pushed - Hussman Funds

In recent years, our most reliable measures of stock market valuation have pushed beyond their 1929 and 2000 peaks, and I’ve described the period since early 2022 as the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history. In my view, that process is now complete. The stock...

www.hussmanfunds.com

yes , i rarely check out that site , despite bookmarking it

shows you even i can be a dumb-ass sometimes

i hear what the analyst is saying , but am not holding my breath waiting for the policy makers to reverse the current debt spiral

for example are the US banks actually compelled to hold capital reserves currently , i know Basel III implementation is coming to the US in the middle of the year , but that is still months away ( a crisis could delay that again )

 

[sptrawler]

@Dona Ferentes mentioned 2pm was a significant time for margin holders effect on the market.

gg

My appologies to Dona, I didn't see her post.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The proper 2-4 pm panic has started as @Dona Ferentes predicted.

Charts are unavailable on Commsec. Prices will be next more than likely.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

My appologies to Dona, I didn't see her post.

no worries, Shirley

I had a screenshot somewhere from 08 March 2008 , when the asx fell 7+ percent. It was trundling along, 5% down then from a bit after 2pm volume went up and free-fall. An orderly disposal of weak hands.

I'm not sure the conditions are as 'primed' for a similar event, this time around. Margin accounts seem so last century

 

[eskys]

Tomorrow could be worse if investors are called today and don't pay by tomorrow whereby brokers will sell their equities. (Correct me if I am wrong. I don't do margins so am not familiar with this subject)

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Tomorrow could be worse if investors are called today and don't pay by tomorrow whereby brokers will sell their equities. (Correct me if I am wrong. I don't do margins so am not familiar with this subject)

usually its same day call. (about now).

with any portfolio , they're given a choice of what to sell, so its a manual process. manage losses and gains.

 

[divs4ever]

Skydive Metal Scream​

https://yewtu.be/watch?v=bWJLR6v1m8E

something to cheer up us retail investors

LOL
( you see all the fine print and don't understand what is coming )

 

[sptrawler]

usually its same day call. (about now).

with any portfolio , they're given a choice of what to sell, so its a manual process. manage losses and gains.

Same day, Wow that could be scary,especially if you were away from internet or phone connection.
I have never looked into margin loans, I guess I'm too faint hearted when it comes to investing.

 

[Ferret]

Same day, Wow that could be scary

I didn't realise it was so fast either.

Some bank transfers are next business day, rather than real time. Then there are daily transfer limits too.

I can see this catching many people.

 

[divs4ever]

Same day, Wow that could be scary,especially if you were away from internet or phone connection.
I have never looked into margin loans, I guess I'm too faint hearted when it comes to investing.

network unreliability stopped me from applying

a trader buddy got caught with a margin call whine working in Central NSW , sadly his bank only had one branch in NSW ( at the time ) in Sydney .. a sudden detour and a couple of nervous hours and it all worked out

but i learned the lesson ( don't take your eye off the portfolio if leveraged )

have some delays and glitches navigating today but at least i had the extra day to clean up a mess if needed .

 

[divs4ever]

I didn't realise it was so fast either.

Some bank transfers are next business day, rather than real time. Then there are daily transfer limits too.

I can see this catching many people.

yep , it can get complicated even at budget retail level , i would have loved to buy in the other portfolio , but it demands cash up front ( and there wasn't enough there )

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I have to get my head around the market closing at 4pm and not 3pm as it has been for some months now.

Another hour and 6 mins to go.

gg