Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK?

Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

ROTFLMAO

...and the prize for the most bearish article on the US goes to......




End of US in 2007 - quotes Israeli paper

Mar 29, 9:19 am show options

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArti cle/Print...

Koran scholar: US will cease to exist in 2007

------------------------------ ------------------------------
Khaled Abu Toameh, THE JERUSALEM POST Mar. 29, 2005
------------------------------ ------------------------------

A thorough analysis of the Koran reveals that the US will cease to exist in the year 2007, according to research published by Palestinian scholar Ziad Silwadi.

The study, which has caught the attention of millions of Muslims worldwide, is based on in-depth interpretations of various verses in the Koran. It predicts that the US will be hit by a tsunami larger than that which recently struck southeast Asia.

"The tsunami waves are a minor rehearsal in comparison with what awaits the US in 2007," the researcher concluded in his study. "The Holy Koran warns against the Omnipotent Allah's force. A great sin will cause a huge flood in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans."

Silwadi, who is from the village of Silwad near Ramallah - the home of Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal - is not a world-renowned scholar. He said he decided to publish the findings of his research "out of a sense of responsibility because what is about to happen is extremely shocking and frightening."

His fear, he said, is that the world economy, which relies heavily on the US dollar, would be deeply affected by the collapse of the US.

"It would be fair to say that the world would be better off with a US that is not a superpower and that does not take advantage of weak nations than a world where this country does not exist at all," he added."The world will certainly lose a lot if and when this disaster occurs because of the great services that American society has rendered to the economy, industry and science."

Silwadi said his study of the Koran showed that the US would perish mainly because of its great sins against mankind, including the Native Americans and blacks.

"As soon as the Europeans started arriving in the new world discovered by Christopher Columbus in 1492, they declared a war on the so-called Red Indians, the legitimate owners of the land," he wrote. "Then they began enslaving and humiliating Africans after kidnapping them from their
countries and bringing them to America. Millions of blacks were brought to the US and treated with unprecedented harshness. Those who became ill during the journey were thrown overboard to feed the fish."

Silwadi pointed out that the US continued to commit war crimes and "ethnic cleansing" against humanity by becoming the first country to use nuclear weapons during World War II.

"International law penalizes such crimes," he said. "If these laws were not applied then, they are certainly implemented in heaven. If no one on earth is capable of punishing [the US], Allah was and remains able to do so. All these actions have been documented by Allah in a big archive called the
Koran."

Silwadi said he reached the conclusion that several suras (chapters) in the Koran that talk about punishment for those who perpetrate heinous sins actually refer to the US.

As an example, he quotes in his study verse 40 of the Spider Sura, which states: "So each We [God] punished for his sin; of them was he on whom We sent down a violent storm, and of them was he whom the rumbling overtook, and of them was he whom We made to be swallowed up by the earth, and of them he whom We drowned; and it did not beseem Allah that He should be unjust to them, but they were unjust to their own souls."

Drawing parallels between Pharaoh and the US, who share the same "sin" of arrogance and excessive pride, Silwadi noted that the Koran mentions at least 12 times the fact that Pharaoh was punished by drowning for his evil deeds.

The Narrative Sura, he noted, clearly suggests that the US will drown in the sea: "And Firon [Pharaoh] said: O chiefs! I do not know of any god for you besides myself; therefore kindle a fire for me And he was unjustly proud in the land, he and his hosts, and they deemed that they would not be brought back to Us. So We caught hold of him and his hosts, then We cast them into the sea, and see how was the end of the unjust [verses 38-40]."

Explaining his theory about the approaching extinction of the US, the scholar went on to analyze many numbers and letters mentioned in the Koran. He said a careful reading and analysis of words appearing in the Opening and Yusuf suras show that the US will exist for only 231 years.

How did he reach that number? Silwadi said that by combing a number of suras hinting at US sins he reached the numbers 1776 (the year the US achieved independence) and 231. He added the two numbers and the result was 2007, the year when the US is expected to disappear.

In his lengthy study, which is being circulated in many Muslim countries, Silwadi noted that the US has often been compared to a tree that grows very quickly and bears fruit, but has no roots.

In an attempt to find a reference to this metaphor in the Koran, Silwadi said he counted 1776 verses from the beginning of the Koran until he reached verse 26 of the Ibrahim Sura, which states: "And the parable of an evil word is as an evil tree pulled up from the earth's surface; it has no stability."
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

Not bearish enough Wayne : P

(geologists reckon the east coast of usa going to get a nice tsunami from the canary islands sometime in the next 100 years...)
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

Well we've been looking at all the theories and articles, the charts seem to be speaking loudly at the moment, wonder if it's a false alarm or is that bear about to ROAR!! A very interesting week coming up...
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

Off topic, but I like the name of that Yahoo group mentioned above: "investorsexchange".

Looks more like "investor-sex-change" than "investors-exchange". :D

Which is probably quite accurate. The market does seem to be changing from :boy: to :girl:.

GP
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

The bears are slashing the guts out of the European exchanges this evening and a lot of traders on MIRC are openly using the big "C" word :-O

Range analysis says support at 1125 on the s&p500.....or big trouble

My absolutely baseless feeling is that we see green tonight.

HMMMMM
Looking ugly though and thinking I should have been hedging my bottom drawer stocks

Cheers
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

Off topic, can you recommend some mirc servers/channels for US/Euro/Local traders?
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

Mirc servers are

Financialchat

Othernet

There's a whole bunch of rooms on those two servers.

Aussies hang out mainly at #trade on othernet.

or #omtrade at financialchat
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

wayneL said:
The bears are slashing the guts out of the European exchanges this evening and a lot of traders on MIRC are openly using the big "C" word :-O

Range analysis says support at 1125 on the s&p500.....or big trouble

My absolutely baseless feeling is that we see green tonight.

HMMMMM
Looking ugly though and thinking I should have been hedging my bottom drawer stocks

Cheers

Geez, I really wish I could empahise... but the value of my stocks haven't changed at all this week ( gone up if anywhere! )...still double to three times the purchase price of 2-3 years ago. The difference between you & me - I invested in medical technology!! Yes, the Bio-medicals...bless their little cotton sox! BTW has anyone ever told you what a bunch of macho wankers you are? No...allow me to be the first...and hopefully not the last!
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

Mez1953 said:
Geez, I really wish I could empahise... but the value of my stocks haven't changed at all this week ( gone up if anywhere! ).

Good for you. A balanced portfolio would have gone down this week, its part of the job. However, if you were soley in say, small cap speculative resource stocks, in all likelihood you would have lost more than the market. Just because you avoided the events past, doesn't mean you will avoid the events of the future. In the end, those with risk management generally come out on top.

If you are interested learning about risk management and position sizing, use the search function. There are several informative threads on the topic.

Mez1953 said:
BTW has anyone ever told you what a bunch of macho wankers you are? No...allow me to be the first...and hopefully not the last!

A big call for your first post. You might find yourself more at home here.
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

Mez1953 said:
Geez, I really wish I could empahise... but the value of my stocks haven't changed at all this week ( gone up if anywhere! )...still double to three times the purchase price of 2-3 years ago. The difference between you & me - I invested in medical technology!! Yes, the Bio-medicals...bless their little cotton sox! BTW has anyone ever told you what a bunch of macho wankers you are? No...allow me to be the first...and hopefully not the last!

Thanks for the enlightenment Mez! Maybe you can tell us all where we have gone wrong...why the way we make money is no good. Do you work for a living? I don't LOL

But I think your post says more about you than us...think about it.

Cheers
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

Mez1953 said:
BTW has anyone ever told you what a bunch of macho wankers you are? No...allow me to be the first...and hopefully not the last!

Dear Mez1953,

I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt because you are obviously new to Aussie Stock Forums but things like personal insults that are okay on other forums are not okay here. You might like to review our code of conduct, which you can find here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/help/terms. Please pay particular attention to #2.

2. All members will treat other members with the utmost respect at all times. This means insults, name calling, personal attacks and the abuse of other members in any way are strictly forbidden. Please, treat other members as you yourself would wish to be treated. Offenders will be warned once and then have their account suspended from Aussie Stock Forums for a period of time to be determind by the administrator.
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

Mez1953 said:
Geez, I really wish I could empahise... but the value of my stocks haven't changed at all this week ( gone up if anywhere! )...still double to three times the purchase price of 2-3 years ago. The difference between you & me - I invested in medical technology!! Yes, the Bio-medicals...bless their little cotton sox! BTW has anyone ever told you what a bunch of macho wankers you are? No...allow me to be the first...and hopefully not the last!

XHJ's down a few hundred points since only a few days ago.

Hard to find any biotechs that have done well over the last few days let alone in the year. Which ones were you talking about? :confused:
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

Greenspan Warns Deficits
Endanger Economy
By Glenn Somerville
4-21-5


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned on Thursday that unless lawmakers come to grips with spiraling U.S. deficits, the economy was at risk of stagnation "or worse."

"Under existing tax rates and reasonable assumptions about other spending ... projections make clear that the federal budget is on an unsustainable path, in which large deficits result in rising interest rates and ever-growing interest payments that augment deficits in future years," Greenspan told the Senate Budget Committee.

He said that while the U.S. economy was "doing well," the danger was that deficits would keep rising as a percentage of total national output.

"Unless that trend is reversed, at some point these deficits would cause the economy to stagnate or worse."

The early questioning from lawmakers focused narrowly on budget issues, rather than on the economic outlook or oil prices. Bond and stock markets showed little early reaction to Greenspan's remarks.

Much of the Fed chairman's testimony echoed prior cautions he has made to Capitol Hill lawmakers. He stressed that steps to fix the problem were essential.

"As the latest projections from the (Bush) administration and the Congressional Budget Office suggest, our budget position is unlikely to improve substantially in the coming years unless major deficit-reducing actions are taken," the Fed chief said.

GET CONTROL

Greenspan reiterated his call for some type of automatic government spending controls.

"In my judgment, the necessary choices will be especially difficult to implement without the restoration of a set of procedural restraints on the budget-making process," he said.

Bush has pledged to cut the budget gap in half by 2009. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated the 2005 budget shortfall will come in around $400 billion, including funding for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The Fed chief has long urged renewal of so-called pay-go provisions that compel lawmakers to show how they will fund any spending initiatives or tax cuts.

Greenspan said the approaching surge of American retirees added urgency to the need to deal with budget constraints in light of uncertainty about the scale of looming medical and retirement costs.

"These uncertainties -- especially our inability to identify the upper bound of future demands for medical care -- counsel significant prudence in policy-making," Greenspan said, adding that policy-makers "need to err on the side of prudence when considering new budget initiatives."

Greenspan said the U.S. economy was growing at a reasonably good pace but noted "the positive short-term economic outlook is playing out against a backdrop of concern about the prospects for the federal budget."

Ronald Simpson, a managing director of Action Economics LLC in New York, said it seemed like a less-enthusiastic take on the economic outlook than that in the statement issued after the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee met on March 22, when it said national output was growing solidly.

"(It) sounds like a bit of a downgrade from the last FOMC statement which sounded a little more upbeat," Simpson said.

Greenspan repeated that the United States may already be in a position where it cannot meet commitments made to the baby boom generation and urged benefit cuts, if needed, be made as soon as possible.

"If existing promises need to be changed, those changes should be made sooner rather than later," he said.

Copyright © 2005 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters shall not be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tman_dc
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

ONCE IN A LIFETIME

At the tail end of any asset bubble, people who have watched the bubble grow from its inception kick themselves for having missed out. While it may be true that for them, they stayed on the sidelines too long in a truly once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, they don’t shrug it off and say, "Lots of other people missed out, too. So what? Something else will come along." Instead, they climb aboard on what they think is the last train out...........

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north366.html
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

Interesting article (I have known about such phenomena for many years, having gone through three economic cycles - relatively unscathed).

This time around, household sector debt is sky high.

One particular caption from that article that seemingly distills the lesson:

"In every mania, there are late-comers who buy in at the top. Manias end when the late-comers cannot afford to buy in. That marks the top."

I believe the Sydney residential market has been to the top (at ridiculous P/E of 40 or net earnings yield of 2%) and has been falling fast in recent months. Weekend AFR had some coverage.

The Economist (an economics journal) warned in mid 2004 that residential property prices in Australia were 20% to 35% overvalued (depending on capital city). That warning was repeated in Jan. 2005 in The Economist.

Time tested measures of earnings yield and average house price to average household incomes, were used for analysis.

Not news to me. I have considered the res. property markets to have been in irrational exuberance territory for the past few years. If interest rates rises another notch or two, slides might get more escalated. Three rises would probably make it a done deal.
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

It could be that Alan Greenspan has limited downside risk of the bubble bursting during his watch as he is retiring soon and also he is no longer a young man.

By keeping the global "sea of liquidity afloat" (the carry trade) for so long with the greatest expansion of M3 money supply the world has ever seen, asset bubbles have been allowed to grow all over the world.

When bubbles burst, it is a bit like the tide going out. We get to see how much mud there is on the sand. Same for economic recessions, we get to see how many skeletons have been hidden in the corporate closets (aka creative accounting) and how much dust have been swept underneath the carpets (off balance sheet liabilities).

Warren Buffett had a view that was aptly put, in the book "Warren Buffett speaks", on page 109:

"Our riches are our curse in our attempts to attain a trade balance. If we were less well-off, commercial realities would constrain our trade deficit. Because we are rich, however, we can continue to trade earning properties for consumable trinkets. We are much like a wealthy farm family that annually sells acreage so that it can sustain a lifestyle unwarranted by its current output. Until the plantation is gone, it's all pleasure and no pain. In the end, however, the family will have traded the life of an owner for the life of a tenant farmer."

We have the same problem in Aussie land. The debt problems (addictions) are huge, bearing in mind that 1/3 of households are debt free.

As the article suggests, interest rate rises would eventually lead to the bursting of the bubbles. Knowing this is the easy part. Picking when is difficult. Most burstings are precipitated by several interest rate rises.
 
Re: 2005 and Beyond:The BEAR is BACK ?

There is a saying: "Easy availability of credit leads to a false sense of wealth".

The latest issue of BRW (released today) has a cover story called "Rough ride ahead for shares and property." It explains what has been happening in global markets, what might be ahead; and starts with the following:

"It was fun while it lasted: stockmarkets and property have boomed over two decades. But the world economy has changed and history will not repeat itself.......For the first time since he began investing, Warren Buffett holds more cash (US$43 billion) than shares. Buffett has cashed out. If he is right, the party has ended."

Here in Australia, some investors have already commenced the flight to safety, whether it is a move from small caps to ASX 100 or a move from shares to cash or simply paying off the mortgage at a faster rate.

Page 27 of the same BRW has Access Economics showing three charts and a commentary on why the housing market is due for a severe correction. In Sydney, it is already underway. If the running of the herd builds momentum selling, either in property markets or equity markets or both, a crash could occur. Forced selling by lenders would accelerate the correction.

Fear (in bear markets) can be a stronger emotion than greed (in bull markets). Time will tell. It will become clearer over the next 3 to 9 months.
 
Top