ASX 200

[Dona Ferentes]

There are seven ASX 200 shares that will be leaving the benchmark index when it rebalances on 24 March.
.....::'-::: . . .:. .:.:....,,,:::;:,'""'-.-:

and now that Friday / Monday have come and gone...

$12b traded in seconds: Inside ASX’s record day​

A quiet day when $20.3 billion of Australian shares changed hands? It is time to wake up.

Fridays are normally quiet as fund managers head out to lunch – but not when they coincide with index changes..... Woolworths and Coles had good days after the ACCC’s supermarkets inquiry ended with a whimper, but Donald Trump didn’t announce anything new and it was a pretty average day with fund managers out to lunch and the ASX 200 up 0.2 per cent.

Yet at 4.10pm, as the ASX’s day-ending single price auction concluded and the market report was being written, huge lines of stock crossed screens.

There was a $436 million line of Commonwealth Bank, $399 million parcel of BHP, $240 million trade in Westpac, $237 million of Goodman Group, etc – about two dozen $200 million-plus trades according to Bloomberg data, all in large-cap names.

When the flurry finished, $20.3 billion worth of shares changed hands – the ASX’s second-biggest day ever by value of shares traded – including a record $11.8 billion in that frantic afternoon match.
A quiet day on the ASX? Hardly.

We need to rethink what constitutes a big day on the ASX. It is time to wake up if you think these trades do not impact share prices just because they happened in the match and just because share prices didn’t jump around on Friday (as seen by the market’s miserly 0.2 per cent gain).
It is all money moving and liquidity – a once-a-quarter peek inside the ASX liquidity casino. So, what really happened on Friday?

The S&P March quarter rebalance, which saw two additions and removals from both the ASX 50 and ASX 100 indices, and seven companies come and go from the ASX 200. This rebalance was especially big because of Chemist Warehouse buyer Sigma Healthcare’s seismic move from small caps into the top-50.

Index and index-aware funds bought nearly $1.5 billion of Chemist Warehouse shares late in the day, and sold smaller stakes in every other large cap to rebalance their portfolios to make sure they would mimic the index come Monday morning’s changeover.

The result was a whopper Friday on the ASX. A record-breaking day was more proof (in case we needed it) that index funds are a big part of the ASX and how Australian companies are valued.

That succession of 4.10pm trades was mostly done on the daily closing price – that’s how these big trades work. Brokers compile changes for the big index funds ahead of the changes, get the trades lined up via swaps and other derivatives, and then execute them on index day.

The result is a relatively smooth day’s trade given the known stampede that is guaranteed to happen on the match.

But that doesn’t mean index changes and preparation for the changes do not impact share prices – they do. The two companies that went into the ASX 50, Sigma Healthcare and Pro Medicus, had huge runs ahead of their inclusion, while the two that departed (Ramsay Health Care and Mineral Resources) were heavily sold.

Morgan Stanley’s Antony Conte says you can best see the price moves if you look at trading from the 20 days before index change announcements through to implementation. Conte, who looked at all ASX 200 rebalances since March 2007, found the average addition gained 6.4 per cent in that window, while the average removal dropped 6.2 per cent. If an investor was long the additions and short the removals, it could make 12.6 per cent excess returns on Conte’s numbers.
Of course, the trick is in accurately predicting the index changes. Brokers have always run the numbers, but fund managers are now taking notice. They can see the consequences in their own portfolios, and brokers are doing even more work promoting the trading strategies...

The trading – the numbers, the lines of stock – show how index funds have become a big part of the life on the ASX.
Is it a good thing for the ASX? We could debate that until the cows come home.
What you cannot debate is that these index days will continue to break records for the value of shares traded – you can be almost guaranteed. That’s when index funds (which brokers estimate to be as much as 30 per cent of the ASX 200) get active.

 

[finicky]

Today via Market Matters

 

[qldfrog]

and now that Friday / Monday have come and gone...

$12b traded in seconds: Inside ASX’s record day​

A quiet day when $20.3 billion of Australian shares changed hands? It is time to wake up.

Fridays are normally quiet as fund managers head out to lunch – but not when they coincide with index changes..... Woolworths and Coles had good days after the ACCC’s supermarkets inquiry ended with a whimper, but Donald Trump didn’t announce anything new and it was a pretty average day with fund managers out to lunch and the ASX 200 up 0.2 per cent.

Yet at 4.10pm, as the ASX’s day-ending single price auction concluded and the market report was being written, huge lines of stock crossed screens.

There was a $436 million line of Commonwealth Bank, $399 million parcel of BHP, $240 million trade in Westpac, $237 million of Goodman Group, etc – about two dozen $200 million-plus trades according to Bloomberg data, all in large-cap names.

When the flurry finished, $20.3 billion worth of shares changed hands – the ASX’s second-biggest day ever by value of shares traded – including a record $11.8 billion in that frantic afternoon match.
A quiet day on the ASX? Hardly.

We need to rethink what constitutes a big day on the ASX. It is time to wake up if you think these trades do not impact share prices just because they happened in the match and just because share prices didn’t jump around on Friday (as seen by the market’s miserly 0.2 per cent gain).
It is all money moving and liquidity – a once-a-quarter peek inside the ASX liquidity casino. So, what really happened on Friday?

The S&P March quarter rebalance, which saw two additions and removals from both the ASX 50 and ASX 100 indices, and seven companies come and go from the ASX 200. This rebalance was especially big because of Chemist Warehouse buyer Sigma Healthcare’s seismic move from small caps into the top-50.

Index and index-aware funds bought nearly $1.5 billion of Chemist Warehouse shares late in the day, and sold smaller stakes in every other large cap to rebalance their portfolios to make sure they would mimic the index come Monday morning’s changeover.

The result was a whopper Friday on the ASX. A record-breaking day was more proof (in case we needed it) that index funds are a big part of the ASX and how Australian companies are valued.

That succession of 4.10pm trades was mostly done on the daily closing price – that’s how these big trades work. Brokers compile changes for the big index funds ahead of the changes, get the trades lined up via swaps and other derivatives, and then execute them on index day.

The result is a relatively smooth day’s trade given the known stampede that is guaranteed to happen on the match.
View attachment 196099
But that doesn’t mean index changes and preparation for the changes do not impact share prices – they do. The two companies that went into the ASX 50, Sigma Healthcare and Pro Medicus, had huge runs ahead of their inclusion, while the two that departed (Ramsay Health Care and Mineral Resources) were heavily sold.

Morgan Stanley’s Antony Conte says you can best see the price moves if you look at trading from the 20 days before index change announcements through to implementation. Conte, who looked at all ASX 200 rebalances since March 2007, found the average addition gained 6.4 per cent in that window, while the average removal dropped 6.2 per cent. If an investor was long the additions and short the removals, it could make 12.6 per cent excess returns on Conte’s numbers.
Of course, the trick is in accurately predicting the index changes. Brokers have always run the numbers, but fund managers are now taking notice. They can see the consequences in their own portfolios, and brokers are doing even more work promoting the trading strategies...

The trading – the numbers, the lines of stock – show how index funds have become a big part of the life on the ASX.
Is it a good thing for the ASX? We could debate that until the cows come home.
What you cannot debate is that these index days will continue to break records for the value of shares traded – you can be almost guaranteed. That’s when index funds (which brokers estimate to be as much as 30 per cent of the ASX 200) get active.

Very interesting, thanks

 

[finicky]

Today
Yay, RMS #1 today. Punters might be warming to the SPR acquisition?
CDA got a boost - Morningstar set a modestly higher target
Uranium stocks rank performers.

 

[divs4ever]

will have to revisit RMS tomorrow i had a reduction order in about a week back but the price wandered down

also i will probably take another look to buy into ( again ) HLS i probably want lower still for HLS ( if i buy soon )

 

[finicky]

Today's winners and losers from Market Matters.
"The ASX200 fell -29pts/-0.37% closing at 7969 – not a bad effort
Energy (+1.00%), Consumer Staples (+0.39%) and Materials (+0.34%) stronger
Real Estate (-2.22%), Tech (-2.07%) and Consumer Discretionary (-1.07%) weakest on the day." (Market Matters)
Something gave Ramsay Healthcare a goosing - 3 years of decline now.
GOR getting a other kick along towards the offer
Pro Medicus lost a bit of its preposterous premium! (Me)
"U.S facing stocks were hit hardest with ProMedicus (PME) -7.79%, ZIP Co (ZIP) -7.12% and Catapult (CAT) -4.96% as fears of economic sluggishness took hold" (Market Matters)

 

[Dona Ferentes]

 

[finicky]

Today
Pro Medicus hit again and Orora smacked hard

Market Matters

• Gold names had a terrific session, several hitting all-time highs just as gold did overnight with gold stocks occupying 9 out of the top 10 stocks on the ASX today.
• Ramelius Resources (RMS) +6.93% led the way, Spartan Resources (SPR) +6.3% and Regis Resources (RRL) +4.56% weren’t far behind.
• Gold Road Resources (GOR) ended flat but down early, one of the few gold names not enjoying gains as it failed to impress on drill results at its Gruyere site.

 

[finicky]

This WEEK

Stocks


Sectors

 

[finicky]

Today
Regis Resources one of the few goldies to hold its ground today.
All of the fossil fuel stocks [petroleum and coal), although not on the ladder, performed poorly. As did the big resource stocks.

 

[finicky]

Today:

Market Matters
The ASX200 rose +81pts/+1.04% closing at 7925
Real Estate (+2.11%), Utilities (+1.91%) and Communications (+1.70%) led the line.
Financials (+0.89%), Healthcare (+0.72%) and Industrials (+0.44%) the weakest, highlighting the breadth of the bounce.

Uranium stocks were softer on the day likely due to waning data-center sentiment despite uranium spot trusts up ~1.5% overnight. Deep Yellow (DYL) -7.55%, Boss Energy (BOE) -4.03% and Paladin (PDN) -5.68% were all weaker.

 

[divs4ever]

ho-hum this was a better day to sleep-in than yesterday ( sadly i overslept yesterday )

the highlight of the day for me was finding out how many extra WES shares i got via the DRP

WES jumped up to my No. 2 holding at the end of March , displacing MQG

oh well

tomorrow should see market reaction to 'Liberation Day ' maybe there will be an attractive price ( to buy or sell ) during that

 

[finicky]

Today's action matched the weather (for me anyway)

Market Matters Afternoon Report:
The market opened nicely higher this morning, though nerves quickly set in ahead of a pivotal day in the U.S with President Trump scheduled to tell all on tariffs from the White House Rose Garden at 7am AEDT. The ASX 200 finished -44pts below session highs.
**We’ll have a succinct/timely report for members on the tariff renouncement in tomorrow’s morning note**

The ASX200 up +9pts/+0.12% closing at 7934
Real Estate (+1.63%), Communications (+0.8%) and Financials (+0.72%) in the winners circle.
Materials (-1.61%), Energy (-1.29%) and Consumer Staples (-0.97%) the weakest performers.

 

[finicky]

Today:
Ansell?

From Market Matters

As we suggested in a ‘Midday Market Update’ , the key to the market is now whether the next few days brings negotiation or tit-for-tat measures;

An aggressive response by China, Europe and others will be bad for markets.
Trump has left the door open to dialogue, suggesting tariffs could be lifted if foreign governments agree to remove theirs on US goods. Evidence of this would be good for markets.
We think there is a strong possibility of negotiation, though we have certainly not discounted the near-term risk of retaliation. The coming days will be important, and unfortunately, tariff talk will be around for some time yet.

The ASX200 fell -74pts/0.94% closing at 7859
Staples (+1.27%), Healthcare (+0.23%) and Communications (+0.07%) all in the green.
IT (-2.87%), Energy (-2.72%) and Materials (-2.01%) the weakest links.

 

[divs4ever]

Today:
Ansell?

From Market Matters

As we suggested in a ‘Midday Market Update’ , the key to the market is now whether the next few days brings negotiation or tit-for-tat measures;

An aggressive response by China, Europe and others will be bad for markets.
Trump has left the door open to dialogue, suggesting tariffs could be lifted if foreign governments agree to remove theirs on US goods. Evidence of this would be good for markets.
We think there is a strong possibility of negotiation, though we have certainly not discounted the near-term risk of retaliation. The coming days will be important, and unfortunately, tariff talk will be around for some time yet.

The ASX200 fell -74pts/0.94% closing at 7859
Staples (+1.27%), Healthcare (+0.23%) and Communications (+0.07%) all in the green.
IT (-2.87%), Energy (-2.72%) and Materials (-2.01%) the weakest links.

View attachment 196750

i expect selectively targeted retaliation from China who is clearly in a trading/currency war with the US , but how would the EU navigate the removal on tariffs they have applied for as much as two decades .

another interesting nation will be India which has tried to be neutral , but will resist being bullied .. as they will be the second largest economy soon enough

and how will all this affect Australia as an economic lightweight but an important supplier of commodities IN THEORY it might get an armchair ride in all this

 

[finicky]

Everyone sulking today? I found something better to do than the market - stared at the wall.

Market Matters:
"Some significant moves playing out across equity markets today, with ~70 stocks in the ASX 200 down more than 5% led by the high beta names, Macquarie (MQG) -9% indicative of the weakness, falling the most since 2022.

"There were some small pockets of strength, the supermarkets were good, select infrastructure companies showed their defensive qualities, some gold stocks made gains, though ~80% of the main board fell.

• Energy stocks had a painful day, with Woodside (WDS) -9.1%, Santos (STO) -9.4% and Karoon (KAR) -12.2% hit as the Oil price slid.

 

[divs4ever]

i found a tiny morsel at a good price but had twenty other orders that missed the target

not quite crying in my beer , but a little disappointed just the same , i thought today's drop had three percent written all over it

 

[finicky]

Sector performances for the week.
Only green was for consumer staples. Energy easily the worst.



Stock performances for the week

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Everyone sulking today?

no need to attribute to others what you don't know

found something better to do than the market - stared at the wall.

were you a bad boy?

 

[rcw1]

AFR​

Alex Gluyas Deputy markets editor
Apr 6, 2025 – 11.18am

More than $114 billion could be wiped off the Australian sharemarket on Monday after China retaliated against the Trump administration’s trade tariffs, sharply increasing investor and economist concerns that the world’s largest economy is heading toward a recession this year.

Wall Street’s three major indexes have dropped more than 9 per cent since Donald Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs last week. The S&P 500 shed nearly 6 per cent on Friday while the Nasdaq sank 5.8 per cent – placing it firmly in a bear market, down more than 20 per cent from its recent peak.

The falls came after Beijing announced an additional 34 per cent tariff on goods from the United States, the same rate imposed by the White House. The US president said China had “panicked” and “played it wrong”, dimming hopes of a trade deal between the two economic superpowers.

The turmoil is set to spill over to the Australian sharemarket on Monday, with futures indicating the S&P/ASX 200 will slump 4.3 per cent, or 331 points, at the open, wiping a further $114.8 billion off the benchmark’s value and extending last week’s 3.9 per cent slump – its worst since 2022.
“We are at a point of peak uncertainty,” said MST senior research analyst Hasan Tevfik. “We continue to believe we’re in the second phase of the Trump presidency, which is the most bearish.”

“Our initial thoughts were that this phase might last a couple of quarters and involve a moderate downturn in US growth. However, the prospect of recession suggests an even bigger downturn that may last for longer.”

At the weekend, JPMorgan joined other brokers in forecasting that the US will enter a recession this year. The downturn will be severe, Tevfik said, and that the US Federal Reserve would be unable to prevent a recession.
Fed chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged over the weekend that Trump’s tariffs were much “larger than expected” and warned that policymakers will not be in a rush to rescue investors.

Other evidence, however, points to a reasonably strong economy. A jobs report on Friday showed employers added 228,000 positions in March, far more than anticipated. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2 per cent.

“Recession risks are very amplified both in the US and globally, and central banks are handicapped with how much they’ll be able to cut rates,” said Perpetual’s head of investment strategy Matthew Sherwood.

“There doesn’t appear to be any circuit breaker to stop the downward momentum in shares at the moment, so it’s really hard to see where the bottom is.”

The Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, closed at the highest level since April 2020.

The deterioration in the global economic outlook also hurt the Australian dollar, which sank 4.4 per cent to a five-year low on Friday – its worst drop since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.

The Aussie dollar is highly sensitive to weakness in China because of Australia’s strong trade links with the world’s second-largest economy. Commonwealth Bank warned clients of further pain to come.

“Our view remains for the Aussie to trade below US60¢ in coming weeks as markets price in more bad news for the global economy,” said CBA FX strategist Carol Kong.

A sharp decline in commodity prices has heaped further pressure on Australia’s currency as Trump’s trade war fuels concerns about softening demand for raw materials.

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, a gauge comprising 22 raw materials, has dropped 6.8 per cent since Wednesday, the biggest two-day loss since September 2011.

US oil futures have dropped 14 per cent in two days, settling near $US61 a barrel, while Brent closed at its lowest level since 2021. Copper slid as much as 7.7 per cent while iron ore futures dropped to $US98 a tonne.