AUD/USD

[greggles]

AUD is currently at lows not seen in more than a decade. With the Chinese and most western economies looking weaker by the day, is there any hope for the AUD in the short term?

Just looking at the situation objectively, logic tells me we are likely to see 55c before we see 65c again.

Anyone with a view?

 

[nodnerb]

AUD is currently at lows not seen in more than a decade. With the Chinese and most western economies looking weaker by the day, is there any hope for the AUD in the short term?

Just looking at the situation objectively, logic tells me we are likely to see 55c before we see 65c again.

Anyone with a view?

I'm not an expert. But it doesn't look like it's going to rise significantly again amid interest rate cut in March + coronavirus + bush fire. Not in the short term (6 months).

 

[wayneL]

AUD is currently at lows not seen in more than a decade. With the Chinese and most western economies looking weaker by the day, is there any hope for the AUD in the short term?

Just looking at the situation objectively, logic tells me we are likely to see 55c before we see 65c again.

Anyone with a view?

The OzSheckel is trading <60c right now.

I recall the days of 48c, and as QE is on the cards starting this week, the bottom is anyone's guess. I'm punting on a helluva a lot lower than where we are now.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Long term government bond interest rate differentials stopped being favourable to AUD vs USD in Q1 2018.

Industrial metals prices starting puking around the same time.



That's around when this latest leg down started, and that'll be when it stops.

 

[satanoperca]

The OzSheckel is trading <60c right now.

I recall the days of 48c, and as QE is on the cards starting this week, the bottom is anyone's guess. I'm punting on a helluva a lot lower than where we are now.

F---k, this dollar is dropping faster than a meteorite, 0.55 now, waiting for the RBA to come out today and cut interest rates, which in the past has pushed it back up.

But given the current turn of events, I have had to let go of 2 (18 developers that have been with me for over 5 years) overseas teams of developers i employ as I pay them in USD, and given that I think it will go to <.50. It is going to hurt.

the RBA intervened in 2008 when the dollar hit 0.62, we are well past that.

I hope they have a game plan.

 

[IFocus]

The OzSheckel is trading <60c right now.

I recall the days of 48c, and as QE is on the cards starting this week, the bottom is anyone's guess. I'm punting on a helluva a lot lower than where we are now.

Shoulda....coulda moved all my cash to USD when the AUD was 1.10......I did think about it at the time........next time......it will be different .

 

[Austwide]

What is the significance of a low AUD vrs USD?

Ok imports costs rise including oil, cars and millions of other things.
Overseas holiday costs balloon.

On the other hand

The economy benefits from people holidaying here both local and oversea visitors, local manufacturing grows (too late for cars), export income from mining and other industries etc grows.

This is quite a simplistic view.
What are the other major problems with a low AUD?

 

[againsthegrain]

What is the significance of a low AUD vrs USD?

Ok imports costs rise including oil, cars and millions of other things.
Overseas holiday costs balloon.

On the other hand

The economy benefits from people holidaying here both local and oversea visitors, local manufacturing grows (too late for cars), export income from mining and other industries etc grows.

This is quite a simplistic view.
What are the other major problems with a low AUD?

For example think about any os investors that hold anything in aud e.g property it decreases in their home currency, for example usd. Good motivation to dump it and sell the aud for usd... more downward pressure on aud

 

[qldfrog]

would be great for tourism but that has been annihilated by the fires stories then the virus actions
We are so far from our markets that after this virus lessons, it will be hard to get up strongly in my opinion

 

[greggles]

Aussie dollar starting to recover. It's just broken through the 60c mark. Interesting that volume is declining as it rises, seeming to indicate that sellers are retreating.

Will be interesting to see if it can consolidate above 60c.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Aussie dollar starting to recover. It's just broken through the 60c mark. Interesting that volume is declining as it rises, seeming to indicate that sellers are retreating.

Will be interesting to see if it can consolidate above 60c.

View attachment 101696

Why do you think the volume from a CFD FOREX broker is valid?

 

[Kryzz]

Looking at the last few sessions seems like the Aussie is ready to rollover again unless things turn around very quickly.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

2AM last night I woke up in the middle of my usual sleep hours and decided I would buy some puts against AUDUSD futs to hedge my relatively large AUD cash/bond holdings. Entered the position and went back to sleep, woke up to see the market had decided that would be the daily low.

Nice little bottom tick from me

 

[InsvestoBoy]

What are the other major problems with a low AUD?

All of that stuff you mentioned is relatively unimportant.

The biggest issue is that low AUD is a proxy for funding costs for Aus banks to get offshore funding.

Now, the banks need considerably less offshore funding than they did in the GFC, but they still do need a good chunk.



This is not a short term problem, the banks have funded themselves earlier this year and don't need to go back to the markets for 6 months or so I believe. But it might be a long term problem if they want to get some long term offshore funding later this year.

Aside from the banks the same applies, low AUD is not in and of the problem itself, the issue is funding for AU economic participants that need USD.

 

[derangedlawyer]

This is escalating very quickly.. seems like China is about to impose a ban on four major Australian meat processors, following threat of tariffs of as high as 80% on Aussie barley. The Chinese ambassador two weeks ago: “Maybe the ordinary people will say ‘Why should we drink Australian wine? Eat Australian beef?”.

Commercial relationships with China becoming precarious is bearish for the AUD.

 

[Cam019]

AUD/USD looking interesting here to me. Retraced back into the 61.8 fib. Probabilities give us a potential target between 121.4 - 138.2 fib extension. Looking at the daily chart we have prior support/resistance at 0.7490 - 0.7500; right in the middle of our extensions target range - this makes a nice target. I'd be looking for a break of 0.7300. A stop of about 35 pips gives you a R:R of around 5:1.

Hourly (delayed data):


Daily:

 

[Cam019]

Flipped. Looking for a short setup here on the hourly.

 

[Cam019]

Triggered on the 30 minute.

 

[Cam019]

Long AUDUSD @ 0.72861. Target around the 0.75000 level. R:R = 11.26.

 

[Cam019]

This might be of interest to anyone trading currencies.

Daily chart with a pull back in a strong uptrend - question is... when to get in?



No one really knows, BUT - check out this glorious looking inverted head and shoulders pattern on the 1H time frame with a nice bullish pinbar. Could be a HUGE R:R play!