duc's Swing Trades

[ducati916]

Buy to open

GPC @ $132.48

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Sell to close

GPC @ $132.02 (loss)
LPX @ $65.71 (loss)
MANH @ $136.09 (win)
OPY @ $49.99 (win)

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Sell to open

XBI @ $126.20

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Sell to open

XBI @ $126.20

jog on
duc

Buy to close

XBI @ $126.49

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Buy to open

FB @ $325.28


Sell to close

FB @ $324.95

Sell to open

MSFT

Buy to close

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Buy to open

FB @ $325.28


Sell to close

FB @ $324.95

Sell to open

MSFT

View attachment 125489


Buy to close

View attachment 125491

jog on
duc

Mr Duc,
Is there a way (an easy way) for you to give us an idea of the actual performance of these swing trades overall?
Obviously percentage not $
A kind of weekly status.i suppose you do maintain something of that sort for your own checks?

 

[ducati916]

Ok, moving past a few day trades, it looked like Tech. was going to bounce, didn't, then collapse, but didn't.

Buy to open long

OPY @ $46.69

So a couple of days ago I had a nice entry, showing some nice open profits which largely went....poof and got out with some small profit. I have re-entered, looking for a re-test and break higher. That's the plan anyway.

*So I'm going to trade to a target initially. On OPY the target is $52.53. (Assuming) that it gets there, the position (or partial position) will be closed. I'll check the weekly, just in case I can move it to a weekly.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Mr Duc,
Is there a way (an easy way) for you to give us an idea of the actual performance of these swing trades overall?
Obviously percentage not $
A kind of weekly status.i suppose you do maintain something of that sort for your own checks?

Bonjour Monsieur Frog,

Yes I can do that. I'll do it weekly.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Bonjour Monsieur Frog,

Yes I can do that. I'll do it weekly.

jog on
duc

Much appreciated.i like the overall idea of these swing trades,but aware of the work involved, L
Looking at results from a pro, might push me to add swing trading to my todo list

 

[ducati916]

Sell to close:

OPY @ $49.09 (loss).

The open price was incorrect. It was opened at $49.69.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So I have done a quick tot up of all the trades. The quick answer is: a ******g waste of time and effort. Complicating the issue (which I couldn't be bothered to delve into overmuch) is that not all the trades used the same capital. ETF trades were generally x5 the size of individual stocks, which is a volatility/risk issue.

So I have treated all trades as essentially the same size.

I have also ignored brokerage costs which would of course have a negative impact.

So in little over 1 month I have made +/- 38 closed trades for a total average return of +4.8% (includes open profits so may change).
Winning trades: 17
Losing trades: 21
(Again an estimation as some trades were hedges, but close enough).

And of course in actual dollar terms, due to the difference in size of trades, even that is not fully reflective of the net result, which is lower again once you really take this into account.

I still have 5 trades open: Short UUP, Long XLP, XLRE, SLV, and hedged RIOT. Going forward, I'll simply manage them but won't include them in the modified methodology.

As I said, waste of time and effort. However a useful exercise. What can be taken away:

(i) Trading chop is a very bad idea. Now of course you can't really predict that it will be chop, otherwise you wouldn't bother.

(ii) In chop, trends are broken. Therefore for swing trades you need to adapt, timewise, the length of the trade. Ie. shorter. This however rather defeats the object, which is to try and catch a trend and let the winners run for several days/weeks.

(iii) Entries count heavily, as do exits. If either one is poor, the results get even worse very quickly. Initially I wanted to give positions a bit of breathing room to potentially run.

(iv) Having initially a far too flexible a time frame, ie. nothing concrete, the structure of the entries/exits was lacking. This more than anything caused many of the issues.

(v) Be consistent in stock selection. I waffled about between ETFs, stocks. Do one. Simply a chart based analysis is not sufficient in choppy conditions. The trend that looked very solid, collapses the next day. With this style of trading, that simply cannot happen. Sods law applies: if the index has a bad day, although some stocks will buck the index and trade against it, they won't be your stock selections.

(vi) Be aware of over-trading. I definitely over-traded. Rookie error.

Going forward.

(i) Only trade the indices, specifically SPY. The entry exit conditions will become far tighter and specific, which will also cut down on the over-trading issue.

(ii) Max time in trade 1 week (potentially a Monday entry Friday exit) but could be simply overnight, long/short. This will also cut down on the over-trading issue.

So a little planning over the w/e ready for Monday.

jog on
duc

 

[peter2]

I can agree that it's been tough to swing trade over the past few months. The chop wins. One day you've got some nice profits and thinking about an exit if it goes a little higher, then you've lost most of it on the next open. Stocks that I've been chopped around in and pass, go on a tear when I'm not looking. Argh.

I traded AMC several times back in March. Do you think I traded it last week when it went ballistic? No, because I was trading other duds.

These frustrations are nothing new. We all experience them many times during the year. That's why I always like to read FFFly. Even the trading "God" gets frustrated at times but he keeps coming back the next day.

 

[bsnews]

Do you apply any hard rule to profit taking. Like if you were up lets say 20% and the trade dropped 5% would you take profit or would it be if you thought the trade could still run? I understand with system trading you have it coded.
Do you only let it run for XX days or weeks or it it all charting?
This has became a real hurdle for me, more it plays with my mind with open profits and of coarse greed and fear lol
It is amazing what having money on the table does.
Cheers

 

[ducati916]

Do you apply any hard rule to profit taking. Like if you were up lets say 20% and the trade dropped 5% would you take profit or would it be if you thought the trade could still run? I understand with system trading you have it coded.
Do you only let it run for XX days or weeks or it it all charting?
This has became a real hurdle for me, more it plays with my mind with open profits and of coarse greed and fear lol
It is amazing what having money on the table does.
Cheers

In the context of this method I am going to keep it short term and on a short leash. Which means there will be an entry condition and an exit condition. The profit or loss is immaterial. Obviously it is far better that there be a profit.

The problem with keying an exit to a profit is that you can give up lots of potential profit. Conversely, you can also preserve profits because the next day....poof, they are gone. Far better to have hard entry and exit signals that maintains consistency of execution.

The signals that I will now use will cut way down on the number of trades each week. I think though that the % of winners to losers should rise. If that does occur, it is easy to boost $profit through the use of leverage. Using high leverage with a 50/50 method is a fast way to the poorhouse.

The shorter answer is that your taking of profits has to be subservient to your methodology.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

So I have done a quick tot up of all the trades. The quick answer is: a ******g waste of time and effort. Complicating the issue (which I couldn't be bothered to delve into overmuch) is that not all the trades used the same capital. ETF trades were generally x5 the size of individual stocks, which is a volatility/risk issue.

So I have treated all trades as essentially the same size.

I have also ignored brokerage costs which would of course have a negative impact.

So in little over 1 month I have made +/- 38 closed trades for a total average return of +4.8% (includes open profits so may change).
Winning trades: 17
Losing trades: 21
(Again an estimation as some trades were hedges, but close enough).

And of course in actual dollar terms, due to the difference in size of trades, even that is not fully reflective of the net result, which is lower again once you really take this into account.

I still have 5 trades open: Short UUP, Long XLP, XLRE, SLV, and hedged RIOT. Going forward, I'll simply manage them but won't include them in the modified methodology.

As I said, waste of time and effort. However a useful exercise. What can be taken away:

(i) Trading chop is a very bad idea. Now of course you can't really predict that it will be chop, otherwise you wouldn't bother.

(ii) In chop, trends are broken. Therefore for swing trades you need to adapt, timewise, the length of the trade. Ie. shorter. This however rather defeats the object, which is to try and catch a trend and let the winners run for several days/weeks.

(iii) Entries count heavily, as do exits. If either one is poor, the results get even worse very quickly. Initially I wanted to give positions a bit of breathing room to potentially run.

(iv) Having initially a far too flexible a time frame, ie. nothing concrete, the structure of the entries/exits was lacking. This more than anything caused many of the issues.

(v) Be consistent in stock selection. I waffled about between ETFs, stocks. Do one. Simply a chart based analysis is not sufficient in choppy conditions. The trend that looked very solid, collapses the next day. With this style of trading, that simply cannot happen. Sods law applies: if the index has a bad day, although some stocks will buck the index and trade against it, they won't be your stock selections.

(vi) Be aware of over-trading. I definitely over-traded. Rookie error.

Going forward.

(i) Only trade the indices, specifically SPY. The entry exit conditions will become far tighter and specific, which will also cut down on the over-trading issue.

(ii) Max time in trade 1 week (potentially a Monday entry Friday exit) but could be simply overnight, long/short. This will also cut down on the over-trading issue.

So a little planning over the w/e ready for Monday.

jog on
duc

It was not a great result but was a needed check it seems.happy to have helped triggering it, and sure it will end up a positive ?

 

[ducati916]

It was not a great result but was a needed check it seems.happy to have helped triggering it, and sure it will end up a positive ?

Indeed.

Monday will see entries into:

XLK
XLV
XLY

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Sell to open

SPY @ $421.37
XLF @ $38.24

Buy to open

XLK @ $139.39
XLC @ $79.36


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Sell short to open

SPY @ $422.63

Buy long to open

JETS @ $26.20
FINX @ $45.55
XLI @ 104.89


jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

All trades now closed.

Long positions:

XLK @ $141.62
XLC @ $79.57
JETS @ $26.33
FINX @ $46.09
XLI @ $103.42

Short positions

XLF @ $37.47
SPY @ $423.57

I'll breakdown the % return

XLK + 1.5%
XLC + 0.2%
JETS (-3%)
FINX +1%
XLI (-1%)
XLF +2%
SPY (-0.3%)

Total +0.4%

Which seems unimpressive. When you apply the leverage component, the $ return is far better. Obviously had it been an overall loss, so would the $ loss.

The first week provided some lessons which will probably improve things moving forward as they are all easily implemented. Next week I'll reopen new positions that will also run for the week.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So new week, new trades.

Buy to Open

ABT @ $110.19

Sell to Open

IHI @ $346.45

Nothing else today.

So these will either reach their 'targets' and be closed or closed on Friday 3.59pm. I will until Wednesday add new positions if they look reasonably attractive. After Wednesday, I'll simply run with what I have.

jog on
duc