Fundamental vs. Technical

[Wysiwyg]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

The storm is coming.

Storm 30....Warriors 12....

Good pick.

My worth is that In the fund. v tech. discussion I wonder sometimes this....which come first? The chicken or the egg.

 

[nizar]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Technicains Beware,

When the markets turn sour, which inevitably they will, all the good money will find a warm home in strong fundamentals and all the technical money will be lost.

Take heed.

LOLOLOLOLOL
Funny stuff.
You dont know what your on about buddy.

Its the TA and systems traders that exit at the first sign of trouble, and actually the fundamentalists that hold "until the end" and top up on "weakness".

Those that trade the PRICE ACTION (which is what matters), are the ones who cut their losers and let their winners run, not the fundamental analysis types.

Take heed, my friend.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Chaza,

Please posts grounds / substantiation for your claim that this will not be plain sailing!
I mean, perhaps that red sky at sunset / (oops dawn) was just the inside of bloodshot eyes?
It's happened before you know !!

Ahoy Officer 2020

As I am new this Arena I think this maybe a better thread to respond to your request in the April Competition

All Seamanship calls are in essence judgement calls
After 2-3weeks Plain Sailing in some classes of sail I get the feeling those Greedy Landlubbers are proned to take profits and the seas then become choppy

As I only work from the Technical (and in this case I refer to the SHAGHAI Composite) I fear those great gamblers in China have been taking profits over the last 2 days
If this continues on Monday then it will become all to obvious to the Yanks and the DOW will fall Monday night( our time) in Wall St

All I can say is that I have cancelled my Golf game and I will be battening down the hatches before the Dawn in Shanghai

Salute and Take Care

PS It very rarely is Plain Sailing at any time ?

PPS Did you know that gambling in China is illegal and that the only outlet for Gambling is the Stockmarket?

PPS As Always DYOR

PPPS My apologies for the double read

 

[nioka]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

LOLOLOLOLOL
Funny stuff.
You dont know what your on about buddy.

Its the TA and systems traders that exit at the first sign of trouble, and actually the fundamentalists that hold "until the end" and top up on "weakness".

Those that trade the PRICE ACTION (which is what matters), are the ones who cut their losers and let their winners run, not the fundamental analysis types.

Take heed, my friend.

The boot may be on the other foot. It is the "Tecs" exiting on the first sign of trouble that has a domino effect which in turn is the real cause of violent fluctuations in the market. Of course this is often by design because it is the fluctuations themselves that allow them to exist.
If there were a true fundamental base to the market then prices would only change if the fundamentals change.
Imagine what it would be like for a wage earner if the wages were set daily on a technical basis.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

The boot may be on the other foot. It is the "Tecs" exiting on the first sign of trouble that has a domino effect which in turn is the real cause of violent fluctuations in the market. Of course this is often by design because it is the fluctuations themselves that allow them to exist.
If there were a true fundamental base to the market then prices would only change if the fundamentals change.
Imagine what it would be like for a wage earner if the wages were set daily on a technical basis.

I don't think so. Get a few FA's in a room to value a company and there is likely to be blood spilt... case in point BHP thread.

In fact, TA was born of the observation of fluctuations in price. Jap rice traders => candlesticks etc.

 

[nioka]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

I don't think so. Get a few FA's in a room to value a company and there is likely to be blood spilt... case in point BHP thread.

In fact, TA was born of the observation of fluctuations in price. Jap rice traders => candlesticks etc.

I agree with you there. To examine the fundamentals is a science, partly learnt in a Management school and followed up by serving your apprenticeship. Most of the experts discussing probably studied economics and became immediate experts. ( ex=something that was, spurt= drip out of control.)

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

The boot may be on the other foot. It is the "Tecs" exiting on the first sign of trouble that has a domino effect which in turn is the real cause of violent fluctuations in the market. Of course this is often by design because it is the fluctuations themselves that allow them to exist.
If there were a true fundamental base to the market then prices would only change if the fundamentals change.
Imagine what it would be like for a wage earner if the wages were set daily on a technical basis.

Or real estate was a liquid form of investment driven near term by the minority/small investment, regularily falling 2O percent past the mean with no change in real dynamics.

All forms of investment are cyclical with the stock market presenting an environment to speculate the gap between the mean, both near and long term. A forward view IMO is most certainly gained by a fundamentalist approach of the majority of liquidity.

Niz just choses to speculate on caravans and trade them as a house before it turns back to a caravan , most punters do to some extent......just to different degree's/investment of thier funds

Its incorrect though to state in recent times that any singular approach is the 'Expert Way' the marketplace, in the most part any approach would have been succesful...........but ATM those trading the past trend would have outperformed IMO.

And for those investing with the majority of funds with a grasp on fundamentals and a clear forward view and trading plan, they would have been the clear winners!

 

[wayneL]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Niz just choses to speculate on caravans and trade them as a house before it turns back to a caravan , most punters do to some extent......just to different degree's/investment of thier funds

LOL

Sounds like a great idea.

My approach is the buy and sell the mansions like baseball cards.

Seriously though, I don't think FA's get an accurate view with what passes as TA on forums in bull markets. A Chimpanzee could do well (probably better) and thats not directed at any particular person. It is a fact that will become self evident in a bear market.

However a competent TA will outperform in the rough times (I dare say a competent FA as well)

But one thing we are all forget is our individual goals for being in the market.

One with a substantial normal income who invests spare cash in the market to build wealth will have an entirely different approach and style of analysis (whether FA or TA) to one who makes a living FROM the market and depending on the amount of capital in use.

A wealth building investor will be prepared to sit out the bear markets with the conviction that their investments are sound and will come good. For an income trader that means starvation.

An income TA trader will utilize several tools in order to make an income at these times e.g. short-selling, options, futures etc.

Sometimes these discussions are like a horse and a dog arguing over what is the best food to eat.

 

[Knobby22]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

LOL


A wealth building investor will be prepared to sit out the bear markets with the conviction that their investments are sound and will come good. For an income trader that means starvation.

A really good fundamental investor will have sold all their investments before the downturn. A really good technical trader will be riding the fall.

Most good fundamental traders use a little technical analysis and most technical traders use a bit of fundamental analysis. This is why in this forum both sides of the coin can discuss the potential fall of the market for instance.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

A really good fundamental investor will have sold all their investments before the downturn.

Not challenging you Knobby, just interested to know: At what point would a FA go to cash, what would be the signal to sell?

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Not challenging you Knobby, just interested to know: At what point would a FA go to cash, what would be the signal to sell?

.

Wayne,

Fundamentalists positions would be liquid once the initial reasons for investment changes (wether that price action /forward views etc).

Economics aside Wayne, a simple question?, even though you have no interest in IPO's or investing in market dynamics.

6 months ago what was your view on the ore market, particularily forward view of the manganise upstarts in the midwest and the likely hood of offshore follow through investment near term. What is your view now on the state of these business near term..........youre neck of the woods GBG say. I know my views have changed

 

[wayneL]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

.

Wayne,

Fundamentalists positions would be liquid once the initial reasons for investment changes (wether that price action /forward views etc).

Economics aside Wayne, a simple question?, even though you have no interest in IPO's or investing in market dynamics.

6 months ago what was your view on the ore market, particularily forward view of the manganise upstarts in the midwest and the likely hood of offshore follow through investment near term. What is your view now on the state of these business near term..........youre neck of the woods GBG say. I know my views have changed

To be honest, I don't have a view. As I trade US stocks and commod exchanges they're just not on my radar.

Ask me something about corn acreages or something.

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

To be honest, I don't have a view. As I trade US stocks and commod exchanges they're just not on my radar.

Ask me something about corn acreages or something.

LOL,

I know nothing about corn

But I would trade the difference between squeezed leverage speculation and value! Corns probably mostly speculation though if youre trading it!

 

[MichaelD]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Get a few FA's in a room to value a company and there is likely to be blood spilt... case in point BHP thread.

Get a few TA's in a room to mark up a chart (eg Elliott Wave counts, even trend lines and support/resistance) and there is likely to be blood spilt, too...

 

[Knobby22]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Not challenging you Knobby, just interested to know: At what point would a FA go to cash, what would be the signal to sell?

Easy to say, (hard to do). When the market looks too hot and expensive especially compared to interest rates, especially when interest rates are rising, especially when unrealistic assumptions occur. We are also allowed to look over our technical traders shoulders.

I'm not talking a correction here but a crash e.g.'87. I know this means we may go early but we aren't as quick. I know a few investors who sold before the crash, I didn't start investing till '89. I know one guy who even sold his house!!!! Hope I am up to it.

By the way, I am becoming quite liquid at present finding that I am being forced to sell, particularly industrials, though I don't expect a crash (yet) maybe a good correction is due. We are starting to see some unrealistic assumptions but as everyone knows a bull market will always last longer than you expect.

 

[nizar]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

That's probably because with FA you can fool yourself for longer that your analysis is adding value when it most likely isn't. Most traders/investors that I am aware of simply do not compare their results with random entry. This is essential in my view to determine whether your analysis is adding value, subtracting value or is simply value neutral.

You can make money with FA, TA, darts, whatever - it isn't the analysis that makes the bulk of the money for successful traders/investors.

Good post Michael. 6 months ago I wouldnt have had a clue what you were on about but now I'm starting to have an idea.

I'm actually suprised at some of the results (I've seen) of random entry - coupled with good money management and a decent exit(s) - they are better than most would expect.

But as you mention, for any system to be valid it has to outperform random entry.

 

[IFocus]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

youre neck of the woods GBG say. I know my views have changed

Sorry off topic but

Our environmental guy left Friday to start at GBG, talked it up big time.

 

[wayneL]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Get a few TA's in a room to mark up a chart (eg Elliott Wave counts, even trend lines and support/resistance) and there is likely to be blood spilt, too...

Red faces, bulging eyeballs, shouting, stamping of feet, throwing of coffee cups... but blood? Never!

We're far to highbrow for that.

I think the stories of EW fracas are apocryphal. They seem do have very gentile discussions on this board. Maybe a few raise eyebrows/rolled eyes, a bit of tutting perhaps.

Those FAs on the other hand...

 

[wayneL]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Easy to say, (hard to do). When the market looks too hot and expensive especially compared to interest rates, especially when interest rates are rising, especially when unrealistic assumptions occur. We are also allowed to look over our technical traders shoulders.

I'm not talking a correction here but a crash e.g.'87. I know this means we may go early but we aren't as quick. I know a few investors who sold before the crash, I didn't start investing till '89. I know one guy who even sold his house!!!! Hope I am up to it.

By the way, I am becoming quite liquid at present finding that I am being forced to sell, particularly industrials, though I don't expect a crash (yet) maybe a good correction is due. We are starting to see some unrealistic assumptions but as everyone knows a bull market will always last longer than you expect.

Make sense. TKX

 

[IFocus]

Re: Fundamental vs Technical

Hi Tech

Software which can analyse just about anything. a constant flow of new software with more powerful capabilities is being released almost weekly.Analysing powr NEVER seen before.

Allows Spruikers to profit from new comers to the market and throw in the world will end but join us as we have the holy grail.

Now go fly the JUMBO. Either by instrument (Technical) or Manual (Fundamental.) or BOTH.

This is a good analogy lost on most I think including myself in the late 90’s I was in to much of a hurry to make $$ I guess that draws most to the market fast $$

Some who are experienced pilots will succeed.

Yes and others such as Ross B talks about on Reef who have the trading gene and are profitable from day one. I know and have met the trader he talks about well, her methods would be laughed off this site as they are so simple. Lot to be said for trading talent when discretionary.

Focus