Fundamental vs. Technical

[divs4ever]

BlackRock is into cash, good enough for me!

BlackRock's Rieder: 'Holding Our Cash With Both Hands'​

for whom is it holding the cash , last i heard it had been the ( unofficially ) anointed fund-manager for the Fed ( or was it the Treasury )

AND Blackrock was busy buying up residential properties at a massive rate

if they mean OUR ( Blackrock's) personal war chest not the clients portfolio , that is less impressive

 

[Captain_Chaza]

In figurative lingo 1st Mate Braveheart

A seaman and all the others of course who venture out to sea should always know which Currency is best for them in their own Time and Place

When I was at my RICHEST
The little Aussie Battler was BIGGER than the BIG Buck
Look at the Chart
It was better than ONE $ for ONE $

Coca-Cola was cheap
Merc's and BMW's were attainable

I show the charts below for your perusal

I have placed a Vertical line @ Happy New Year 2022 just to FREEZE the Fundamental STRESS and the Technical STRESS of the day ON THAT DAY

Let's see how we compare FA vs TA Stress Tests

I'd like to see ANY Fundamental Analyst's out there to produce any "Financial Stress Tests" on ANYTHING You and I can trade

Some Fundamentalists seem to to think
They Can Do It on the Banks

And the CRAZIEST of ALL the Sweet FA'ers I have ever seen Think they can Curb INFLATION

WAKE UP! My Dear 1ss Mate Braveheart

"THE ONLY CURE FOR INFLATION is INFLATION"
Prepare for it and Be Sea-ready in a BIG way

This Could Be Generational!







CASH is only relative to "The BIG Buck"

 

[frugal.rock]

I'm not going to wade through the whole thread, just say my thoughts.

I don't think it should be TA Vs FA, rather TA and FA.

Works for me.
Data is data, whether TA or FA.
The 2 are married in a natural way, in my opinion, and statistics and probability play a part on both endeavours.

Without detailed analysis, my thoughts are, a weighting of around 60% TA to 40% FA sounds about the right mix.

Charts change, depthsounders prove this.

 

[divs4ever]

"THE ONLY CURE FOR INFLATION is INFLATION"

translated for the masses .. high prices and limited cash/credit really puts pressure on demand and try and price the product to cover those costs

part of the problem is producers have to guess how much resource costs will rise for the next production run

remember many businesses are successful because they can sell a LOT of their product so not only are resource costs rising ( and normal production costs ) but they are losing efficiency of scale

now if inflation starts losing jobs , there are simply less cashed up consumers

maybe the Captain should consider a submarine as a back up plan , there should be some sunken treasure in those wrecks

cheers

 

[Mohammed Hazabig'un]

Ahoy.

As our ASX 200 dropped below the 200 dma this week, heck it even did it for 5 consecutive days ( @Nick Radge ) all the Tech heads were bailing. But the Fundamentalists realised the economic Fundamentals didn't support the notion of a drop below 200dma indicating a Bear Market YET, so didn't panic.

As the dear Captain wishes to challenge someone, I'd personally like to see him take on @tech/a or a Fundamentalist (Economist) like @over9k . I'd suspect Over9k might wipe the floor with him though.

(Some of these Tech heads sound like rummy Sailors at times, bit of RSI from playing with their ADX or ROC too much. )

 

[Ann]

for whom is it holding the cash , last i heard it had been the ( unofficially ) anointed fund-manager for the Fed ( or was it the Treasury )

AND Blackrock was busy buying up residential properties at a massive rate

if they mean OUR ( Blackrock's) personal war chest not the clients portfolio , that is less impressive

Dunno, I have watched them, along with Vanguard massively reducing their holdings in some of the participants of their ETF funds for a while now, so I have no idea who their clients are. Although if you read some of the company notices they were shorting some companies like crazy it is probably their own money, the shorting proceeds would not have gone to the mug punters who hold their index funds. Not for the likes of you or me to ever know.

As our ASX 200 dropped below the 200 dma this week, heck it even did it for 5 consecutive days ( @Nick Radge ) all the Tech heads were bailing. But the Fundamentalists realised the economic Fundamentals didn't support the notion of a drop below 200dma indicating a Bear Market YET, so didn't panic.

Welcome MH, first post, yet you are well familiar with the participants on this forum, so well done Captain for drawing out a landlubber who watches without any contribution until now. Hopefully, we will see more from you finally! Going by your name you have a feeling of superiority, not an uncommon characteristic for a few of the blokes here, so you should fit in well! @Joe Blow is this really a first-time poster, or someone taking on a second persona?

As a "Tech head" I can assure you I didn't bail, nor did I panic, I sold some stocks at a pre-determined price. I will continue to liquidate my current holdings over this coming week as the FOMOs rush back in. I have certain parameters in which I trade. I have no desire to trade when our markets enter bear market status with my current holdings. I prefer to have re-adjusted my portfolio by that time.

 

[Joe Blow]

@Joe Blow is this really a first-time poster, or someone taking on a second persona?

I do not see any evidence that this account is connected to any others. So for the moment I will assume that it is a genuine first time poster. If that changes I will let you know.

 

[Ann]

I enjoyed this article today, I have no idea who he is or his credentials other than he is not an old fart. Here is a small sample, more here....

Price Anchoring and Broken Stories​

The Two Sides of Value​

Traditional finance teaches that every asset can be valued on fundamental metrics alone: cash flows, earnings, capital structure, and sales growth are all that matter. But in reality, we know that isn't true. Fundamentals don't have a monopoly on valuations. Fundamentals are engaged in a perpetual game of tug-of-war with stories.

The story of what an asset "could be" plays a huge role in what investors are willing to pay for an asset. Steve Jobs understood the role of storytelling better than most. Elon Musk's storytelling has turned Tesla into the world's most valuable automaker while spending $0 on marketing. Bitcoin's entire value is largely predicated on stories, from an inflation hedge, to a foil for the villainous Federal Reserve, to the power of the almighty permission-less blockchain. The value that the market gives these stories determines the price that you will pay for these assets.

The thing is, fundamentals and stories are dynamic, not static.

Fundamentals and stories operate on a sliding scale. During periods of euphoria, stories reign supreme.

 

[divs4ever]

Dunno, I have watched them, along with Vanguard massively reducing their holdings in some of the participants of their ETF funds for a while now, so I have no idea who their clients are. Although if you read some of the company notices they were shorting some companies like crazy it is probably their own money, the shorting proceeds would not have gone to the mug punters who hold their index funds. Not for the likes of you or me to ever know.

according to a Vanguard statement/disclosure sometime back , Vanguard lends shares to enhance unitholder returns , however i have seen no similar statement from BlackRock ( or State Street ) despite both quite obviously lending out selected shares as disclosed it changes of shareholding documents

i suppose it is only a matter of time before some curious analyst crunches the numbers on passive index fund returns over the return period ( last 3 years )

 

[Ann]

CASH ? No Cash Here

HAA HAA HAA, hilarious. I have no desire to be shot down without cash!

WAKE UP! My Dear 1ss Mate Braveheart

I already spotted the Big Buck and charted it somewhere. I am not going to re-do the chart, I will just shove the same one here. I did a potential swing trade calc just for fun.

 

[divs4ever]

I enjoyed this article today, I have no idea who he is or his credentials other than he is not an old fart. Here is a small sample, more here....

Price Anchoring and Broken Stories​

interesting , however i see the writer falls into the US investing bias , where capital gains is king , now that may be compelling in the US tax structure ( before inflation starts into a full run )

Australian investors should be aware that investing for investment returns ( dividend and other capital returns like demerged entities ) can be worthwhile as well ( as least as long as franking credits are a factor in the Australian taxation system )

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Ahoy.

As our ASX 200 dropped below the 200 dma this week, heck it even did it for 5 consecutive days ( @Nick Radge ) all the Tech heads were bailing. But the Fundamentalists realised the economic Fundamentals didn't support the notion of a drop below 200dma indicating a Bear Market YET, so didn't panic.

As the dear Captain wishes to challenge someone, I'd personally like to see him take on @tech/a or a Fundamentalist (Economist) like @over9k . I'd suspect Over9k might wipe the floor with him though.

We are Professionals Helping others with our experience

You are an insult to the Human race
and Not Welcome on this Thread again

Not only that

I will have you "Walk the Plank" never to be seen or heard of again on this thread

Put that on your big'un and smoke it

Att 1st Officer Braveheart

PM me the Manual on "Blocking " so that 'It" does not learn anything that this
thread has and will have to offer in the future

 

[Captain_Chaza]

I'm not going to wade through the whole thread, just say my thoughts.

I don't think it should be TA Vs FA, rather TA and FA.

Works for me.
Data is data, whether TA or FA.
The 2 are married in a natural way, in my opinion, and statistics and probability play a part on both endeavours.

Without detailed analysis, my thoughts are, a weighting of around 60% TA to 40% FA sounds about the right mix.

Charts change, depthsounders prove this.

What I am saying is that Any Piece of FA distorts your reading of the Charts
Yes, the Weather and Sea Conditions Change Every Day and in Melbourne sometimes 4 times a day

The charts cannot Predict /Forecast future Sea and Weather conditions
All they can tell us is
" How she is Handling the Conditions NOW"

I'll start with Captain Cathie Woods on The Good Ship ARKK



Sailing is all about feeling the stress on all parts of the Ships
Green Candlesticks shows a Good Day ,Week or Month at Sea
Eaclh colored Line, Dot, Dash and Oscillator aids the Captain with his Seamanship skills

As you can See
When she is Going NORTH on top of the water All the Colored Instruments /Aids are Under
the Craft
When the Captain wishes to go SOUTH the opposite occurs and they are on Top of the craft

I have Placed a Vertical Line on Happy New Year's Eve 2022 so we can compare the Seaworthiness on the crafts and their performances this year in all types of conditions

 

[Value Collector]

This video is interesting, Warren Buffett talks about how he spent years working on Technical Analysis in the first 8 years as an investor, but it wasn’t until he started fundamental analysis that his fortunes really took off.

The first 3 mins of the video is where he discusses his TA time.

 

[over9k]

Ahoy.

As our ASX 200 dropped below the 200 dma this week, heck it even did it for 5 consecutive days ( @Nick Radge ) all the Tech heads were bailing. But the Fundamentalists realised the economic Fundamentals didn't support the notion of a drop below 200dma indicating a Bear Market YET, so didn't panic.

As the dear Captain wishes to challenge someone, I'd personally like to see him take on @tech/a or a Fundamentalist (Economist) like @over9k . I'd suspect Over9k might wipe the floor with him though.

(Some of these Tech heads sound like rummy Sailors at times, bit of RSI from playing with their ADX or ROC too much. )

So much of AU depends on china, and china's under quite a few lockdowns at the moment (their vaccine is **** and they won't use the western ones). Not going to see a great deal of action here until the lockdowns etc are lifted.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Sailing the IVV One Week at a Time

Sailing the XLK One Wekk at a Time


Sailing the IWM One Week at a Time

 

[Ann]

This video is interesting, Warren Buffett talks about how he spent years working on Technical Analysis in the first 8 years as an investor, but it wasn’t until he started fundamental analysis that his fortunes really took off.

From 11 years old until 18 years old he says he tried to use charts. I could imagine a youngster would never have the patience to hand draw charts as there were no charting programmes back 70 odd years ago. I agree with him about doing post mortems, they are an essential part of my trading.

 

[Mohammed Hazabig'un]

Apologies Captain, I get a bit carried away on Sundays, reading the Scriptures and all.

Make no doubt about it, on the 7th day the Lord created @tech/a @Skate @over9k @peter2 @systematic and @Garpal Gumnut who each peaked my interest in Charts, Occilators, Economics, Systematic investing, and linguistical abilities.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Sailing the EOG One Week at a Time



Sailing the ALB One Week at a time


Sailing the FCX One Week at a time

 

[divs4ever]

From 11 years old until 18 years old he says he tried to use charts. I could imagine a youngster would never have the patience to hand draw charts as there were no charting programmes back 70 odd years ago. I agree with him about doing post mortems, they are an essential part of my trading.

actually back all those decades ago , the BIG danger would be stale data to base those charts on ,

so calculating charts on lagging data would have made it incredibly difficult to refine your technique

it is bad enough trying FA on data you suspect might be six months old

ALSO Warren was probably only tracking one or two stocks at a time

PS i try not to let my study subject die , before i run an in-depth analysis ( i still get caught by some sudden deaths , but have jumped on a different horse when i feel the current ride tiring several times )