Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[rederob]

It has been a very interesting week, with the shining star being gold at its end.
Presently at an all-time high over $3230.
Although remaining ridiculously overbought, some markets can remain irrational much longer than reason would suggest.
And while Trump is somersaulting tariffs willy nilly there is every chance that global economic instability will continue for some months or longer.
Lots of questions. Are central banks buying big right now? Don't know yet as latest data is to end February:


What we know with certainty is that Russia and its contiguous friends have been the main sellers of bullion ths year, while net purchases in February this year (latest data) rose to 24 tonnes:



Holdings look like this:

And to close this post with POG at this minute we see +$3200ish holding for now:

 

[rederob]

Overnight saw an all-time record high for POG which peaked a tad above $3245 before taking a late breather.
The 2 charts below, while not definitive, show the strong recent positive correlation between monthly POG movements and net Gold ETF flows:



Anyone wanting to play with more data will find this correlation holds up well throughout 2024... go to https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2025/04?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=GOLDHUB:+Your+Weekly+Gold+Market+Round-up,+April+11,+2025

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

As the gold price increases the movements higher will increase in pure dollar terms, as will falls from these levels. Presently at $3236 a 1% rise is $32 so I'm not going to get carried away with large dollar increases.

Should gold reach $3336 that is just a 3% percent gain. Equally a fall of 3% brings one back to $2936, all approximate calculations.

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

As the gold price increases the movements higher will increase in pure dollar terms, as will falls from these levels. Presently at $3236 a 1% rise is $32 so I'm not going to get carried away with large dollar increases.

Should gold reach $3336 that is just a 3% percent gain. Equally a fall of 3% brings one back to $2936, all approximate calculations.

gg

Finally, someone who has more than a passing comprehension of maths.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

Finally, someone who has more than a passing comprehension of maths.
Mick

can't run a hotel otherwise

 

[farmerge]

can't run a hotel otherwise

Well someone has to be seen to be holding the front bar up!!!!!

 

[rcw1]

AFR Electronic

Gold could hit $US4500 as confidence in US havens crumbles​

Alex GluyasDeputy markets editor
Apr 14, 2025 – 11.49am

Australians loaded up on gold investments last week amid a historic exodus from the US bond market, adding fresh thrust to the precious metal’s record rally that could send prices soaring to as much as $US4500 an ounce.

The commodity, which typically rallies during times of uncertainty, surged 7 per cent last week to a fresh peak above $US3245 an ounce as investors around the world dumped US haven assets such as Treasuries and the greenback, amid a dramatic erosion of faith in the stability of the world’s largest economy.

Goldman Sachs has upped its year-end gold target to $US3700 an ounce, citing growing central bank demand and robust inflows into gold exchange-traded funds. The broker said prices could trade near $US4500 an ounce by the end of this year in an “extreme” scenario.

“I am personally of the view that gold and gold equities are entering a structural bull market,” Charlie Aitken, an investment director at Regal Partners, wrote in a note to clients over the weekend. “Multiple market sources cite that Beijing is actively selling down its holdings of US Treasuries and buying gold. This, in turn, is weakening the US dollar.”
Goldman Sachs said for gold to climb above $US4000, central bank demand would need to jump to 110 tonnes a month consistently, ETF holdings would have to rebound to the same levels as the pandemic by the end of the year, and positioning by traders would have to reach the top of its historical range.

“Gold could plausibly trade near $US4500 an ounce by the end of 2025,” said Goldman analyst Lina Thomas. “We view this as a very low probability event, but include it to illustrate the non-linear upside to gold prices.”

‘Beast mode’​

Either way, the flight to safety across global financial markets is intensifying amid the tit-for-tat between the US and China. Washington last week lifted its overall tariff on China to 145 per cent, while Beijing responded with a 125 per cent tax on US goods.
The anxiety temporarily eased over the weekend after US President Donald Trump paused import duties on a range of consumer electronics.
Fears that the trade war between the world’s two largest economies could tip the US into recession have pushed gold prices up more than 20 per cent already this year, and analysts are bullish that its next leg higher could be fuelled by a rotation out of American assets and into the precious metal.
“With heightened uncertainty and significant swings in global bond markets, investors are diversifying away from US safe haven assets like Treasuries into gold as an alternative store of value,” said Global X investment strategist Marc Jocum.

“Gold now is the premier safe haven asset … [and] could experience record-breaking inflows this month on the back of rapidly rising retail demand.”

Global X said its gold ETFs experienced a massive $38 million of inflows on Friday alone. That was its fifth-largest day on record and eclipsed only by episodes during the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic sell-off and a pre-US election surge in September last year.
Jocum believed that prices could be heading towards $US3500 an ounce as traders continue to sell other US havens.
The greenback slumped 2.4 per cent last week while the yield on the closely watched 10-year Treasury bond soared to roughly 4.5 per cent from just below 4 per cent – the most pronounced spike in nearly a quarter of a century.
“Gold seems to be the clear beneficiary of the debates raging around the US dollar, and we’ve witnessed the gold price in absolute beast mode,” said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone.
Gold prices initially sank 5 per cent after Trump announced sweeping tariffs on US trading partners on April 2 as investors liquidated positions to meet margin calls during the collapse in equity markets.
Citi was among a number of institutions that took profits on the precious metal a fortnight ago, but then decided to re-enter the trade last week, declaring that “the bulk of the selling pressure has unwound for now”.
UBS joined the growing chorus of major banks upgraded their gold forecasts on Monday, tipping that prices will average $US3500 an ounce next year. The broker upgraded ASX-listed producers Newmont to a “buy” rating and Regis Resources to “neutral”.