Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

US Election 2024 : Stock and Economic Comment

Jump to new
Garpal Gumnut said:
Trump states that he will stick with a 25% tariff on Canadian exports to the US without any exemption for oil and gas. This makes me believe that his priority is to decrease to zero oil imports from outside the US which may have a significant effect on Oil and Gas exports from Australia and the price of oil.

I'm not up to speed with matters presently affecting the POO but it will be affected as well as will oil and gas coming from Australia.

gg
Click to expand...
Trudeau has made a supplicant's visit to Mar-a-Lago
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
This makes me believe that his priority is to decrease to zero oil imports from outside the US which may have a significant effect on Oil and Gas exports from Australia and the price of oil.

I'm not up to speed with matters presently affecting the POO but it will be affected as well as will oil and gas coming from Australia.
Click to expand...
Chemistry enters the chat......

From US Energy Information Administration (US Government) data as of February this year (most recent available) the weight of US oil production was as follows:

API 20 or lower = 1.84%
API 20.1 - 30 = 7.97%
API 30.1 - 35 = 9.43%
API 35.1 - 40 = 23.52%
API 40.1 - 45 = 29.99%
API 45.1 - 50 = 18.34%
API 50.1 - 55 = 5.85%
API 55.1 or above = 2.79%
Unknown = 0.28%

So more than 90% of US oil production is light, that is it has an API gravity exceeding 30, and much of it is extremely so.

First problem with that is many US refineries simply aren't set up to refine extra light oil at all. They're set up to refine either oil in the 20 - 30 API gravity range or they're set up for heavy oil below 20. Because historically that's what was available.

Second is refining extra light oil yields relatively little heavier products. Fine for jet fuel and petrol, doesn't yield much diesel though and it's basically useless for actual heavy products eg fuel oil, bitumen or grease. Noting that oil refining tech has primarily developed so as to be able to turn heavy products (Eg fuel oil) into lighter products (eg petrol) not the reverse. So a lack of heavy products is harder to resolve than a lack of light products.

The practical workaround to that is the US both exports and imports oil. That is, it exports a portion of the light tight oil ("shale") it produces and imports heavier oil produced elsewhere. Both the US refiners and the purchasers of the exported LTO are then doing the same thing, blending it with heavier oil so as to produce a more suitable product mix when refined.

In short, trying to stop that trade isn't simply an economic issue and it's not just logistics, it also stuffs things up physically. :2twocents
 
To add to smurf's post:

This is why they want the pipelines from alberta. They can use the heavy/sour sands oil for the heavier stuff, and also mix it with their light/sweet to create a blend that they're already set up to refine. Without it, they have to rejig their refineries to refine "unmixed" shale oil, which will cost big money.

Mixing the albertan oil with the shale oil gives them a mixture much closer to what they've traditionally produced through drilling or importing from the arab world.
 
over9k said:
To add to smurf's post:

This is why they want the pipelines from alberta. They can use the heavy/sour sands oil for the heavier stuff, and also mix it with their light/sweet to create a blend that they're already set up to refine. Without it, they have to rejig their refineries to refine "unmixed" shale oil, which will cost big money.

Mixing the albertan oil with the shale oil gives them a mixture much closer to what they've traditionally produced through drilling or importing from the arab world.
Click to expand...


Plus 25% tariff....
 
IFocus said:
Plus 25% tariff....
Click to expand...
let's see if the tariff is applied , or it is just a negotiating tactic ( to bend Canada to Trump's will/plan )

it may shape US-Canada relations , but 'the global South will be watching this as well , and may increase membership in the SCO
 
Top