HCH - Hot Chili

[dyna]

The dogs bark .... The caravan moves on .

More gruff out today . Market ain't buying it , though . S.P. down 5 % now , to 72 cents .

Lots of stuff in the ground . What else ? 19 drill rigs !
A lot going on .....but only $ 19 mill cash left in the kitty .

 

[Sean K]

The dogs bark .... The caravan moves on .

More gruff out today . Market ain't buying it , though . S.P. down 5 % now , to 72 cents .

Lots of stuff in the ground . What else ? 19 drill rigs !
A lot going on .....but only $ 19 mill cash left in the kitty .

There's going to be a lot of CRs to go before this gets close to a BFS. They've been mining the market for a long time.

I'm surprised they didn't go for one after they brought out the LaVerde results that warrant a significant DD drill program to see if it goes to depth and to identify potential tonnage and hopefully find a high grade core close to surface for a starter pit - the one thing they're really missing.

I actually doubt this gets started unless they establish 200Mt @ 1% close to surface somewhere.

 

[Sean K]

Might have been a DB down there but I think I've said that before, like Aug/Sep 24. Hitting some resistance too.

The PFS is supposed to be out this quarter but I doubt they'll get it out on the already delayed timetable. They've been terrible at meeting guidance to market for years.

Even when they get the PFS out based on the last MRE, they'll couch it with the fact they have discovered a new significant lode in La Verde. Not sure why it's called La Verde, it looks pretty brown to me. Maybe they should have been called La Marron or La Cafe.

If the La Verde MRE gets to where it probably should on the current dimensions (400x500x300x2.6 = 156Mt @ 0.4% = 600Kt), then the overall tonnage goes well above 4Mt CuEq. Proposed mine life extended 4+ years. But, that's just a start for this deposit, potentially. Although, they still have to move the ore to a central hub for processing and that's going to be a long way away.

 

[Barnouste]

Might have been a DB down there but I think I've said that before, like Aug/Sep 24. Hitting some resistance too.

The PFS is supposed to be out this quarter but I doubt they'll get it out on the already delayed timetable. They've been terrible at meeting guidance to market for years.

Even when they get the PFS out based on the last MRE, they'll couch it with the fact they have discovered a new significant lode in La Verde. Not sure why it's called La Verde, it looks pretty brown to me. Maybe they should have been called La Marron or La Cafe.

If the La Verde MRE gets to where it probably should on the current dimensions (400x500x300x2.6 = 156Mt @ 0.4% = 600Kt), then the overall tonnage goes well above 4Mt CuEq. Proposed mine life extended 4+ years. But, that's just a start for this deposit, potentially. Although, they still have to move the ore to a central hub for processing and that's going to be a long way away.


View attachment 193717

They need a Gazillion $'s to develop this. If one reads up on BHP then my impression is that they're looking at Cu moving in 2028, add a year or so for the usual market delay to these matters and we're at 2030, fair enough as EV projections have slowed and the whole climate change urgency has abated somewhat.

There's no hurry for anyone to stump up the big $$$$'s need for Costa Fuego, a JV or Huasco to contribute to Capex.

There's a lot to play out and I doubt we've seen the bottom after recent news. I expect the PFS to disappoint the market unless there's a huge surprise between now and then in terms of funding or a JV and I don't think that will happen this year, maybe not even next year.

Trump's words and actions are creating risk off in the markets.

 

[Sean K]

They need a Gazillion $'s to develop this. If one reads up on BHP then my impression is that they're looking at Cu moving in 2028, add a year or so for the usual market delay to these matters and we're at 2030, fair enough as EV projections have slowed and the whole climate change urgency has abated somewhat.

There's no hurry for anyone to stump up the big $$$$'s need for Costa Fuego, a JV or Huasco to contribute to Capex.

There's a lot to play out and I doubt we've seen the bottom after recent news. I expect the PFS to disappoint the market unless there's a huge surprise between now and then in terms of funding or a JV and I don't think that will happen this year, maybe not even next year.

Trump's words and actions are creating risk off in the markets.

PFS capex will scare the crap out of people. I think the PEA was about US$1b, so I'd guess add 25% to that, at least.

There needs to be an 'incentive' price for this to get developed. Like uranium was about $60 to get the old mines out of mothballs, I guess $5 Cu is what will make these porphyrs with huge capexes feasible. I think that's going to happen in a few years. 2028 is a good guess.

If you have the patience and can sustain a potentially massive drawdown, you could make money on this in the long term.

I lost patience with management a while ago.

 

[Sean K]

This is not a good look. Whenever 'effective immediately' is added to the exit and it's more than one at a time, it stinks.

 

[The Triangle]

This is not a good look. Whenever 'effective immediately' is added to the exit and it's more than one at a time, it stinks.

View attachment 195080

is 66 cents a new all time low??? 100% stink-a-rama. Speculation time:

1) Large shareholder block requested their resignation because they were preventing something from happening (probably not - otherwise replacements would have been named)
2) Caught in the office in sexually explicit actions. (probably not - but would be interesting!)
3) Sick of the MD and could not get backroom shareholder backing to get a new one.... I give this a high likelihood
4) Saw no hope and some horrific capital raisings on the horizon and decided to bail before it hurt their reputations....I give this a high likelihood
5) Did not agree with Pre-PFS results and decided financial engineering and creative accounting was occurring....I give this a high likelihood

One maybe all of the above???

Thought these were the new board members brought in relatively recently with the consolidation (did they list in North America too? I can't recall) -

Christian needs to go - he's been there since day one collecting a paycheque while delivering squat for shareholders. Typical West Aussie junior mentality. Paid himself $400,000 salary last year. Add on super, bonuses, expenses... His shareholding is minuscule for someone who is the 'founder' and been there 15 years.

 

[Sean K]

is 66 cents a new all time low??? 100% stink-a-rama. Speculation time:

1) Large shareholder block requested their resignation because they were preventing something from happening (probably not - otherwise replacements would have been named)
2) Caught in the office in sexually explicit actions. (probably not - but would be interesting!)
3) Sick of the MD and could not get backroom shareholder backing to get a new one.... I give this a high likelihood
4) Saw no hope and some horrific capital raisings on the horizon and decided to bail before it hurt their reputations....I give this a high likelihood
5) Did not agree with Pre-PFS results and decided financial engineering and creative accounting was occurring....I give this a high likelihood

One maybe all of the above???

Thought these were the new board members brought in relatively recently with the consolidation (did they list in North America too? I can't recall) -

Christian needs to go - he's been there since day one collecting a paycheque while delivering squat for shareholders. Typical West Aussie junior mentality. Paid himself $400,000 salary last year. Add on super, bonuses, expenses... His shareholding is minuscule for someone who is the 'founder' and been there 15 years.

Agree with 3, 4, 5.

RR recently said what they lacked was a high grade core starter pit. I think he put NAB in position prior to this and has often promoted HCH at his conferences, because he believed in CE, owned it, and the longer term copper narrative. Something in this mix has gone wrong. Has RR ditched them and henceforth NAB bailed to save reputation?

Whatever the case, it looks like trouble.