- Joined
- 21 November 2022
- Posts
- 389
- Reactions
- 985
Yes..wasContrary to popular belief, Trump was always part of the system, the so called swamp.
He benefitted from it, got his start because of it, made his money from it, and only bagged it when it suited him.
Mick
I'll take this bet.My bet, writing this here so I can say I said it.
USA stays to high for to long, employment cracks, USA goes into a recession, fed chases its tail down with cuts, hard landing
History is on your sideMy bet, writing this here so I can say I said it.
USA stays to high for to long, employment cracks, USA goes into a recession, fed chases its tail down with cuts, hard landing
Heard a commentator say recently that the risk of default on US Treasury bonds actually is now being priced higher than the risk of default on some corporate bonds.I think the problem has no palable solution: either default or hyperinflation .
good grief , are some of my opinions becoming consensusHeard a commentator say recently that the risk of default on US Treasury bonds actually is now being priced higher than the risk of default on some corporate bonds.
That says an awful lot really.
Go back a couple pages gumnutI am fortunate in that I don't have to feed a large family, as I did when I was younger.
I watched an American chappie post on X.com today that he found an old receipt from a shopping expedition to Walmart which amounted to $148. He decided to buy the exact same shop and it was $400 and something. I find the Americans prone to exaggeration but it would be interesting to know whether any ASF members with a large family dependent on him or her who has tried a similar exercise and what the sums were.
gg
Go back a couple pages gumnut
ggView attachment 179792
And this is how your basket of goods and the abs's basket of goods produce different inflation numbers.
That commentator aint letting the truth get in the way of a good story imo . Default on treasury bonds is End of Times and is multiple times less likely than any other type of debt default .Heard a commentator say recently that the risk of default on US Treasury bonds actually is now being priced higher than the risk of default on some corporate bonds.
That says an awful lot really.
would that be a hard default or a soft defaultThat commentator aint letting the truth get in the way of a good story imo . Default on treasury bonds is End of Times and is multiple times less likely than any other type of debt default .
If inflation continues at anywhere near present rates that's a default in practice. Technically it isn't but in practice it is.They're not going to default.
well they can't 'temporarily ' close the gold window this timeThey're not going to default.
The US fed debt limit was suspended till end '24 quite a while back so effectively the Credit Card Limit doesnt exist till then .would that be a hard default or a soft default
look no further than the antics of Ukraine facing precisely that choice with bonds issued before 2022
the question would be , can the BIS , IMF World Bank and others let the US hard default on some or all of their Treasuries , after all it is one big financial entanglement
many 'unthinkable things' have happened in the last ten years
, without US guarantees , many large institutions would fail also
In real terms or nominal?US treasury debt aint defaulting any time soon
We've had negative rates since 2009 and constant debt increase since too.In real terms or nominal?
In nominal terms I agree it's highly unlikely.
In real terms if we don't get inflation down, right down, then it's already happening. Inflation of hard assets and consumer prices has run well ahead of bond yields in recent times.
???while mortgage holders or outright owners are increasing their spend.
Hello and welcome to Aussie Stock Forums!
To gain full access you must register. Registration is free and takes only a few seconds to complete.
Already a member? Log in here.